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My understanding from seven barrows was that Shiskin will not be run at Haydock if its soft/heavy. I heard this back in October, but as with most trainers. Its always fluid.
Royal P @ 8’S might be a decent e/w shot now, as I suspect BMG, will not give 100% and have a jog round for an easy payday. Covering the training costs for a few months and having a day out.
Its possible it will be a 3 or 4 runner race, with Shishkin’s dec doubled up with Ascot, to be taken out on Saturday morning.
Second guessing trainers…the road to hell..I think Nicholls wants to beat Shishkin at Ascot so Cobden is riding there, leaving multiple Betfair Chase winning jockey Jacob on Bravemansgame
Honestly the fields for this and the Charlie Hall are a disgrace , this is going to start effecting sponsors of its not dealt with
Pick 3 on Saturday champion 2025/2026
Also four runners in the 1965 Chase
How many 155+ rated chasers in Britain outside of 7 Bs, Ditcheat and the Skeletons ?
No way would Cobden rather go to Ascot than Haydock.
imo Obvious the owner/s blames Cobden for Bravemansgame’s defeat in the Charlie Hall and are trying a different jockey.Protektorat has a lot going for him on form. Impressively won this by 11 lengths last year in similar conditions; although that was (with the odds on fav disappointing) a substandard renewal. As this might be if Bravemansgame fails to show his metal. Even without last season’s victory Protektorat has a good record at this time of year and fresh. But I’m a bit concerned about his recent wind surgery. Has won after wind surgery before but this his second op within a year and fourth in all. Also the form of the Skelton yard isn’t great either, only winner in his last twenty runners being a walkover. Of the four I’d be least keen on him at current prices. That could change though, with Skelton having seven runners before Protektorat and three of them with good chances.
Venitia is certainly in good form, best of the four trainers. As others have said Royal P’ has an excellent record at Haydock, although his second in this race was some 22 lengths behind the winner A Plus Tard. Ground and stamina no worries but ran poorly last two starts last season. That said, he’s never been a Spring horse and particularly good in Winter and / or very soft ground. Has a good record fresh too. Runner up to Bravemansgame at Kempton, but even so has 14 lengths to make up. At his age and experience he is highly unlikely to improve, so shouldn’t really be good enough if either of the two favourites run their race, but that is an IF.
Lucinda’s two week stats don’t appear that good, but with three winners and two seconds from her last 8 runners all in the last few days. Including 8/1 and 3/1 winners and 22/1 second… Seems to have hit form at the right time. Corach Rambler should be the outsider of 4. Needs a personal best and by some way. But could yet improve despite his age. Grand National another personal best and the way he finishes (idling) it’s impossible to quite know just how much he’s had in reserve. Not convinced he wants heavy but seems to act on anything else and “Soft” will bring his abundant stamina into play. Record suggests best in the Spring, but that might be a bit misleading, as had Cheltenham handicap targets the last couple of years and of course the Grand National. Did win at both Aintree and Cheltenham in October and December of 2021 – probably his best performances up to that point.
Nicholls is in reasonable form too. Bravemansgame may well have won the Charlie Hall with quite a bit to spare without an awful error at the last which stopped his momentum. Horse that beat him doesn’t look top class albeit getting 6 lbs from the Nicholls horse. Bravemansgame is apparently expected to come on for that run anyway. A good record fresh suggests should’ve been fit, but Nicholls wasn’t in as good form then than now. Some believe his stamina suspect, but the second in the Gold Cup on a stiffer track over further than this was right up with his best form. That said, the winner beat the Racing Post Standard, so it probably wasn’t as the official “soft” / didn’t need quite as much stamina as you’d think looking at the form. Has plenty of form on soft, including the impressive King George victory. It is probably true he has more speed than the rest of these, so very soft will play to his rivals strengths. Can’t get away from Bravemansgame being the best horse in the race though… and by a fair margin. Should win if running to his best. I’d certainly back him if odds against is available.
Value Is EverythingAt the prices I gotto go with Protektorat. His win last year was impressive and Bravemansgame might be waiting for Kempton.
Protektorat 5/2
Bravemansgame does have a good record fresh but that’s because he’s a top horse
He’s rpr 2nd run of the season has been 10lb+ better than his first every season
The issue for me is this wasn’t the long term plan
And 3m1 1/2f on soft ground at a track with a long straight wouldn’t be something that plays to his strength
This is however Protektorats cup final and at 5/2 he has to be the value having won the race last year, though it was admittedly at a bit of a gimme with a plus tard struggling
But it looks perfectly likely Bravemansgame could do the same.
You’ll find much better 4/6 shots elsewhere tomorrow.
All jockeys make mistakes Ginge
Ruby Walsh made plenty but I’d be surprised they’ve jocked him off for Jacob.
I heard somewhere that Nicholas has promised the owner of Pic D’ory that Cobden would be riding his as his had been pulled out of a race recently. Probably didn’t envisage running Bravemansgame so soon after the last race, possibly came out of it better than expectedGaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
The Betfair Chase is rapidly becoming an I Really Don’t Care Chase.
The more I know the less I understand.
“imo Obvious the owner/s blames Cobden for Bravemansgame’s defeat in the Charlie Hall and are trying a different jockey.”
Can’t see that myself at all
My theory would be the owner has forced Nicholls to run BMG, he does after all own the horse and pay the bills
Nicholls surely won’t have wanted him to run and wanted to go straight to kempton which worked perfectly last year
A hard race here could easily jeopardise Nicholls plan for the first half of the season
Nicholls has said well Harry is riding at ascot so wouldn’t be able to ride, hoping this puts the owner off from running, and he’s called Paul’s bluff and got Jacob to ride
I personally don’t particularly judge freshness as all about first time out, FF. For me it’s more about the breaks in between races. Bravemansgame Off 58 days before the King George and 81 before the excellent second in the Gold Cup. He’s also a progressive horse, so you’d expect his second run of the season to be better than the first, especially when two of those first runs were his first over hurdles and fences. Last year’s Charlie Hall also his first run after a wind op and surely can’t expect a better run in a Charlie Hall than King George anyway. Far more likely to be asked to go clear in the latter.
If Bravemansgame was below peak fitness in the Charlie Hall imo it was probably more to do with Nicholls being in much worse form at that point in time than he is now.
The reason I mention a good record fresh is he may actually need a longer time between races than he gets here. Only poor run last season off the shortest break at Punchestown in April and has disappointed all three starts with short breaks after the Cheltenham Festival. But those Cheltenhams were far harder races than he got in the Charlie Hall… And ran many good races with only short breaks in his novice campaign before Aintree / April.
I do agree he wouldn’t be one to take odds-on in this race, unless Skelton’s earlier runners all disappoint.
Value Is EverythingNow that he is in the race BMG should win. No point putting him in the race to come 2nd. The only question is how close Protectorat gets to him to harm his King George chances if at all.
As for the theory that the owner has jocked off Cobden coz of the ride in the Charlie Hall I doubt that is correct as Nicholls has said Cobden is back on BMG in the King George.
This is Skeltons horse GC , but BMG should beat him esp with that run under his belt
Pick 3 on Saturday champion 2025/2026
I agree with FF, Nicholls didn’t want to come here but the owner does and that explains the jockey situation. He’s promised De la Hey a big day at Ascot today. I think he’ll have Pic D’Orhy cherry ripe and he might be able to beat Shishkin first time up if Nicky’s left him too short. That’s another matter for another thread.
I have a theory about Protektorat which is that he’s a pretty good horse who doesn’t get up the Cheltenham hill/doesn’t like Cheltenham. On that basis I don’t think you can take the margin he was behind BMG in the Gold Cup that literally in the context of todays race. I think he’ll beat BMG because he was supposed to come here and Nicholls has probably told Jacob if it gets ugly not to leave his King George behind today.
Nicholls reported… “Bravemansgame who is bouncing at the moment is the clear top rated horse in this Grade 1 race and has a first rate chance.”
Skelton yard not going as well as usual atm and trainer said yesterday… “It’s been a challenging time recently as a few of our horses have been underperforming, but it is more on an individual basis.”
Protektorat looks the oen here. He’s been aimed at this race, while Bravemansgame looks as if he’s coming here as an afterthought.
Royal Pagaille not quite as good as the top 2.
Would love to see Corach Rambler make a mark but I don’t htink he’s good enough. Needs another lap ofr a big field, and preferably both. From a local point of view I’d be happy to be wrong!
Exactly Mike, Skelton’s recent record with his only winner in 20 being a walkover isn’t what you’d expect from the yard. Doesn’t mean that all Skelton horses have been running below form, but many have. Therefore a greater chance of Protektorat not performing to his best. Trainer form can change and Skelton’s seven runners before the Betfair Chase will tell us more.
Value Is Everything
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