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someone who bets in a big way would have made a killing on Saturday you could not oppose the horse(BACHANAL) everything was leaning its way going, jockey, form, but me not being a BIG player now(SAVING IT ALL FOR THE FESTIVAL) had a token bet in the race on Supreme Glory and it gave me a run for my money and was finishing strongly(a good pointer for its ultimate goal THE NATIONAL) but if push comes to shove?(heard that somewhere before??) the choice between the two stable mates on the day of the G/C I would have to go along with MARLBOROUGH out of the two? but we will jump that hurdle??? when we get nearer the day.<br>regards MERLIN
I’ve always liked Bacchanal a lot, but I agree with the opening contributor that Cheltenham won’t suit him one bit. I don’t think he will win the Gold Cup and would expect Marlborough to reverse placings with him.
Whether that will be quite good enough I don’t know, but I still think Marlborough has the best chance of winning. I would give him the edge over Behrajan and Alexander Banquet and would expect him to beat Best Mate. That leaves LLT who is difficult to weigh up, but I don’t want to bet on his tendon injury standing up to the Gold Cup.
So it’s still Marlborough for me. I backed him at 16/1 and have backed him again at 12/1 following the race. He is only 8/1 with Corals.<br>
Bacchanal did no more than the form book entitled him to do. I just doubt whether he will be good enough to win this particular Gold Cup.
I’m not convinced by Marlborough’s claims either. He didn’t get quite close enough for my liking on Saturday before lack of condition told. My short list for the Gold Cup at the moment would be (in no particular order)
Best Mate<br>Looks Like Trouble<br>Lord Noelie<br>See More Buisness (!!)
I think Lord Noelie is the percentage call this year but I haven’t backed him yet. I took a small EW on See More Business at 50s the other day in the hope against hope that he can put in one more good run when it matters. With First Gold out for the season SMB has the best overall form of anything else in training.
<br>maybe so maurice but he will improve a little and he will definitly stay.
from your list i would have serious concerns
best mate – he wont stay the trip especially if there is cut in the ground
smb if he can stay on his feet he needs small fields of out of form horses nowdays not sure what ground nicholls claims he like now but would think he has much ground to make up on llt
llt- beat a poor field last time still has much to prove
lord noellie ran a very good race at newbury but am beginningt o worry about his actual win record
marlborough on fast ground would be interesting
I was impressed by Marlborough’s run after his injury and he can only improve for the run, he’s the one for me!
esc
re llt barring the fact he has still in my mind got to prove he is as good as he was the wincanton race being poor and the gc will put more pressure on his tendons ( he maytherefore save a bit for himself)
one question if fp is a non stayer as many others were in that race (lake kariba for example) do you think there is any chance of llt being flattered in his last win ie it was fp stopping as much as he was accelaterting which made him look good.
the field is competitive this year with a decent bunch as you say but at least this year stamina will not be a problem for many of them. so it may be a different ball game to the one that llt won
llt is a good horse with a good trainer so maybe i am be to critical but i feel that even with a fit llt this years race will be very different to the last gc.
the jockey bookings for marlborough/bacchanal may be interesting allthough i believe ogden has 2nd claim on fitz so it may not be jockey choice on fitzs part
As long as we get the good quick ground we expect, I agree that Looks Like Trouble stands tall. Of course there has to be a question mark, because there was the usual touch of hype about his winning reappearance. But IF he can recover the form of old, he has all the necessary qualities to win it again. He loves the track (is it 3 out of 3? Two grade 1s and a Pillar), cruises and jumps – and he stays.
I know there are some who (rightly) question the quality of the 2000 Gold Cup. My theory is that Trouble improved between then and Down Royal. His runaway win in the James Nicholson seemed to me the performance of a real star.
<br>hi esc
fair point re the down royal race , although perhaps he goes better fresh than fp and as rm points out he does have a very good record at chelt 3 from 3. he cannot be left out but to me the wincanton race told us nothing he had the run of the race and although u are correct about the time being above average one has to remember most past winners of the race were average or below average horses so the times would be slower..
i cannot disagree with you he beat fp senseless as fp dosnt stay but he still at the end of the day he finished 2nd which must cause some doubts as this year there are 3 or 4 good horses that will not fail through lack of stamina (only that they are not good enough)
he is no doubt to some extent the horse to beat but his injury does cause worries and the fact that most of the field this time are stayers he may find himself in a different race so to say.
it may not be the best gc of the decade but i must say it appears the most interesting with four of five horses that a genuine case can be made for .
Escorial do you believe Florida Pearl ran to form in Down Royal when LLT beat him?If so how highly do you rate Inis Cara????!!???
I don’t think any horse has ever improved beyond all recognition after winning a Cheltenham Gold Cup.
Florida Pearl ran well below par in Trouble’s James Nicholson. Even so, that race was all about Looks Like Trouble. Having won a Gold Cup, he came back after his summer break and put in an astonishingly assured performance. It was probably the first time he got a bit of overdue credit (he won his SunAlliance, remember, because Nick Dundee fell, and only won a Gold Cup, we were told, because other more worthy sorts fell or ran below par).
Maybe Florida’s off-day at Down Royal made Trouble’s run look better than it was. But Noel Chance said he thought his horse had improved, and I for one agreed.
The Wincanton run is a tricky one to assess. Whitenzo was running well before his fall, and yet he was then well held by Upgrade (although I think Upgrade was well treated at the weights).
What was really encouraging (and this has been said before) was the champion’s relish for racing that day. (This enthusiasm could be a double-edged sword; there is a danger of him overjumping at Cheltenham and aggravating his injured leg.) The fact that he won so well over a trip too short was an added bonus.
but sure like you said yourself…………….Dorans Pride aint that good over fences as hurdles.Indeed its doubtful if he stays………the Morris is over a shorter trip.How can you suddenly just disregard Inis Cara?<br> You never answered my question…………………you said LLT thrashed Florida Pearl that day and I agree.But did Florida Pearl run the sma e race as his Henessy wins or the Gold Cup places or King George?Simple really yes or no?
<br>esc<br>one little point whilst not disagreeing with your outline you say
the gold cup was poor that year with llt winning it going away
with fp a non stayer in 2nd was llt actually going away or was fp slowing down and with lake kariba ( a non stayer) in 5th place surely theremust be a little doubt as to the value of this form especially as in this years contest there will be at least four or five horses with ability that will not have trouble staying the trip.
rm i am one of many whom think llt was in some way lucky that day nick dundee fell but in his next year when winning at sandown the pillar chase and the gold cup i agree he should have been given more credit.
i thnk he’s already won the gold cup!
you have here the best staying hurdler of his time who likes cheltenham, will love every inch if the 3m2 trip AND the hill, goes on ANY ground and can/is still improving over fences
he destroyed a top field while still jumping to the right yet is clever enough to get out of trouble when he needs to
he really is the best TRUE staying chaser at the moment and quite how anyone can see horses like shotgun willy OR marlborough reversing the form at a track and distance WHICH BACCHANAL WILL PREFER is beyond me
i like LLT but horses don’t tend to win again and this year it’ll be because there’s a better horse in town
and just how much juice was there in the ground when he won the stayers at cheltenham esc??
it’s always been a question of stamina with him and the 3m2 uphill more then compensates for any quickness in the ground besides it wasnt particulay soft on saturday with the time not much outside standard
i disagree that marlborough was going better..in my eyes bacchanal always had him covered and there was no way he wouldve got past him even less so the further they have to go
i agree about shotgun willy though..that appears to be all there is to him and at least now we know who would have won the R&S last year anyhow :)
i seem to remember marlborough cantering all over go ballistic but only just scaped home. in fact every time he’s come up against decent horses in recent times hes been beat despite travelling well. sure he travels well but he’s just not that good
my point about his jumping is that he’s good enough to win DESPITE jumping right..if they sort that out the rest won’t even see him come march
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