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Ayr Gold Cup 2020

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  • #1497005
    Venture to CognacVenture to Cognac
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    Entries out……

    https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/3/ayr/2020-09-19/764722

    https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ante-post-racing/flat/ayr-gold-cup/winner

    Obviously not all of them quoted, given that they have no chance getting in, but enough of them in the sponsors list to make it the usual puzzle.

    Straight off the bat, Dakota Gold and Gulliver jump out, but they’re both on the verge of top weight, and though I’ll not be put off by that burden, I’d only consider them on the day. A big run from Dakota this Sunday at Ripon, might just rule him out here. I‘be been really impressed by Gulliver this year, and though he’s difficult to win with, he’s respected.

    Other obvious ones near the head of the weights are the likeable Major Jumbo, and also Mubtasimah, Nahaar and Meraas.

    What is noticeable from the entries is that the overall quality isn’t as high as previous years at this stage, and that might make it easier for those on the low 90’s to scrape in. The likes of Kasbaan, and Another Batt are interesting in this respect.

    Some interesting contenders owned by Hamdan Al Maktoum, in the shape of Mutagally, Mubaalegh, and Shabaaby, but very difficult to take a strong view on that trio just now, as questionable if all three would have this as serious target.

    Air Raid was on my radar last year, but was a late Non Runner, and though he’s got to actually deliver at some point, I don’t think he’s fully exposed, and his run at Hamilton had promise.

    I have drawn up a shortlist though, and first on that list is Get Knotted. He would very much be unlikely to get in any other year, but as mentioned earlier, not out of the question for this renewal. Falling down the weights, and course form is top notch, not to mention his suitability for this, given his record in not only this race, but The Silver Cup too. Currently not listed though by Hills, given his current low mark.

    Similar profile to Get Knotted is Mr Lupton. He didn’t do much in The Stewards Cup, but he’s streetwise, and getting help from the handicapper. The Great St Wilfrid might tell us more.

    Growl needs no introduction, and I’d be unconcerned with any below par runs in the lead up to this, and I’d not be surprised if his season is geared round going one better than last year.

    Swindler has looked a very promising type for the last twelve months, and this youngster advertised his claims with an excellent effort in The Stewards Cup.

    A real dark one could be home raider, Volatile Analyst. 2/2 at Ayr, and ran a very nice race in The Richmond Stakes last year. Got thumped last time on the all weather, but considering that was in a race won by Phoenix Sprint Winner Glen Shiel, it doesn’t read quite as bad now. Interesting that he’s recently gelded, and there’s a possible overreaction from the handicapper on that last run.

    Last up is Wise Counsel. Course winner last year, has a few nice runs to his name, and always thought he’s worth a go in a big race like this. Looks as if he’s lurking on a nice mark, and trainer has made a successful raid to Ayr in these big handicaps before. Interesting.

    Hard to single any of them out right now, and all under serious consideration. Wise Counsel or Volatile Analyst possibly at the head of my shortlist, but really like the lot of them.

    Shortlist
    Get Knotted N/Q
    Growl 33’s
    Mr Lupton 33’s
    Swindler 14’s
    Volatile Analyst 50’s
    Wise Counsel 20’s

    #1497464
    Venture to CognacVenture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 17755

    I sat out the Great St Wilfrid today, but had came close to siding with Mr Lupton, only to decide that Ayr would be the big plan.

    Not only did I miss a nice EW today, but Hills froze the market for this, and I missed that 33’s for this too.

    I knew he was very well treated, but cat out the bag now, and he’s been cut to 16’s.

    Assuming he gets a rise for today, he’ll still be well treated, though I’m happy to wait just now.

    Having travelled very well today at Ripon, I thought Dakota Gold was going to defy his big weight, but he eventually faded. On that today, he looks really interesting for this, and will definitely be going on the shortlist if he gets eased a couple of pounds.

    #1497639
    He Didnt Like Ground
    Participant
    • Total Posts 458

    I backed Me Lupton e.w on Saturday and I’ve already played the winnings on this for him , this is a horse that was winning a group 2 last summer , still only 7 I’ll be disappointed if he doesn’t go close

    #1497753
    buckers
    Participant
    • Total Posts 542

    I agree with Dakota Gold + 20-1 is a big ew price.

    I’ll try hard not to have an ap bet just now though, as I also like Danzeno and Meraas at this moment.

    #1499939
    Venture to CognacVenture to Cognac
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    • Total Posts 17755

    Still no bet in this yet, but happy to see that Mr Lupton has drifted back out to 25’s, very tempting.

    Wise Counsel still interests me, but I should know more after The Porsche Handicap.

    Buckers, Danzeno an interesting one, I think he should run well today, so hopefully he’ll come into the picture for this too for you.

    #1500035
    Venture to CognacVenture to Cognac
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    • Total Posts 17755

    Buckers, I’m definitely adding Danzeno to the shortlist here. Should have been a lot closer today, but still ran well, and he’s of big interest now.

    Wise Counsel less impressive, and not for me now, at this moment anyway.

    The one I did like at Ascot was Arbalet.

    Shortlist
    Get Knotted 33’s
    Mr Lupton 25’s
    Swindler 22’s
    Volatile Analyst 66’s
    Danzeno 20’s

    #1500325
    Venture to CognacVenture to Cognac
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    • Total Posts 17755

    Decided to have an early play on Get Knotted.

    His record in these big handicaps at Ayr is unreal, and if he did, by some miracle, manage to sneak in, then he wouldn’t be that price.

    Unless he has a setback, I should at the very least get my stake back, but I’d obviously like to see him sneak in.

    Still keen on that 25’s for Mr Lupton as well.

    Get Knotted 33’s EW

    #1500560
    Venture to CognacVenture to Cognac
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    • Total Posts 17755

    Mr Lupton still in The Bold Lad on Sunday. Not sure I’d be as keen with six days between races.

    If he declares there, I’ll be watching very closely how Danzeno gets on, should he run in The Portland. I’d be less worried about him with the short break.

    A lot of ifs and buts here.

    #1500592
    Silver Spoon
    Participant
    • Total Posts 63

    I’ve had an early bet in this, Nahaar at 14-1

    #1500891
    buckers
    Participant
    • Total Posts 542

    Venture, do you think that Danzeno would still run next week. I’ve not bet him yet for this + I’m in two minds now

    #1500933
    Venture to CognacVenture to Cognac
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    • Total Posts 17755

    I’m not as sure now Buckers. He’s getting hammered for The Portland now, and that points to that being the main target.

    I’d be wary.

    #1501114
    buckers
    Participant
    • Total Posts 542

    He’s still 20-1 with Bet365 but I think that I will wait until the forfeit stage on Monday

    #1501842
    TheTinMan87
    Participant
    • Total Posts 138

    The early closing nature of these heritage handicaps can work in some horses favour but really goes against others and will probably go unnoticed by most. There are 13 horses entered in this race who are wrong at the weights here and would be running off lower marks if the race was an ordinary one:
    Major Jumbo is 5lbs wrong
    Cold Stare is 5lbs wrong under his penalty
    Barbill is 2lbs wrong under his penalty
    Bielsa is 2lbs wrong
    Gabrial The Wire is 2lbs wrong
    Bungee Jump is 2lbs wrong
    Arecibo is 2lbs wrong
    Wentworth Falls is 2lbs wrong
    Staxton is 2lbs wrong under his penalty
    Nahaarr is 1lb wrong
    Wise Counsel is 1lb wrong
    Spanish City is 1lb wrong
    Lexington Dash is 1lb wrong

    There are 3 horses well in – Another Batt is 2lbs well in, Soldiers Minute is 1lb well in and Stone Of Destiny is 1lb well in under his penalty

    Mr Lupton is an interesting one he’s officially 3lbs wrong under a penalty but will almost certainly be raised for winning in Ireland at the weekend at a later date. Any rise above 3lbs makes him well in here but any less makes him wrong. Interestingly if he’d been beaten in Ireland off 100 he’d actually be running here off 98 rather than the effective 103 he will run off.

    #1501862
    Venture to CognacVenture to Cognac
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    • Total Posts 17755

    Still no bet for me, as money back for Get Knotted after he was balloted out.

    Mr Lupton still a big fancy, but it’ll be bittersweet if he wins at 8’s, after putting him up early at 33’s.

    It wouldn’t surprise me to see Gulliver bounce back here either, and also looking at Young Fire now.

    I’m sitting this out for now though, and I’ll wait and see if any clues from The Bronze Cup.

    #1501889
    KrisKris
    Participant
    • Total Posts 623

    Bielsa for me at 14-1.

    I’ve bet Stone of Destiny a few times this year, so I wasn’t happy to miss him at Doncaster. I’d better cover him too.

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