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Really struggling to find any solid selections at decent prices from a race which has a bit of the Buggin’s Turn about it.
BUFFER ZONE‘s Curragh looks very solid, his price reflects his chance ubt he is the most obvious.
Major Jumbo drops down after a fair effort in the Vernon’s Sprint Cup, or whatever they call it these days(!) and should is likely to get in the mix.
At a longer price Angel Alexander has run a series of decent races and may be worth an each-way punt.
These types of races are never good for trends, so I was very surprised when looking through this to find the following…..
Race Fitness
17/18 had a recent run within the last 28 daysDraw
10/10 Drawn 8 or higher
Note: Drawn from the highest 3 numbers is 0 from 30 runnersRating
10/10 Rated at least 3lbs higher than their last win
9/10 Rated 100+(Does not include the 2017 running at Haydock)
Take all that into account and we are left with just ONE horse
Buffer Zone
Not a surprising pick, but I can’t leave that alone based on the above. Must have an outstanding chance if not bouncing after running 6 days ago.
I’ll go with three on the day here, but with two Antepost absentees, I’ll only put one up, and that’s Barbill, who I’ve followed all year, and I’ve liked him from the off. He’s a great price I reckon at 33’s to the seven places.
Had a shortish list of
GROWL
STONE OF DESTINY
STAXTON
BUFFER ZONE
GUNMETAL
BACCHUSWanted to do another one to go with growl but decided to just back Growl again at 7 places and 28/1 as I really like him here.
Low numbers bossing it. Summerghand should be able to get over there.
Ground more like a carpet than firm so no excuses for anything really on that front.That’ll give me hope for Mr Lupton then Mike, as he’s drawn number 1 which according to stats you don’t want.
You've got to accentuate the positive.
Eliminate the negative.
Latch on to the affirmative.
Don't mess with mister in between.A small tickle but not enough as usual.
I’m using a simple method to crack these big handicaps which used to be a mystery to me. Just knock out any horses that haven’t won at least once in their last 3 races. Doesn’t work every time, but it eliminates a lot of the deadwood. In this case it reduced the field down to 9* I was interested in including the first two both at 28/1. Used speed figures to shorten the list to a manageable level.
*Ended up as 8 since Air Raid was a non-runner.
Blank from 5 qualifiers in the Silver Cup, but in the Bronze Cup yesterday Music Society at 20/1 from 6 runners.
Not a race I normally have on my radar this one but it definitely is now after that. Angel Alexander actually covered all those trends except the note on the top 3 highest numbered drawn.
One missed for this year maybe but will keep this firmly in mind for next year.
What I like about the trends is the strength of the one looking for improving horses rather than well handicapped horses. Not often I’ve come across such a strong trend like that in a Heritage Handicap.
I just wish that Growl ran straight and followed Major Jumbo on that side of the track instead of losing many lengths by tracking over to the other side group. Surely he would have won had he have done that.
The winner deserved it as the jockey and connections were brave and ran straight but I cant help but think of what could have been had Growl done the same.
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