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Been a few dry days up here, and the forecast for the week ahead looks the same.
Should have a big bearing on this. Not ideal for Air Raid, and I certainly won’t be touching Donjuan Triumphant now, though might check market vibes on the day, as he still looks interesting on peak form.
The one I’m probably coming round to now is Barbill at 40’s, and I’m tempted, but hard to justify another at this stage unfortunately.
I’d side with Raymo and Urban Beat, how could i fancy him at around 25/33s in a grade 1 and not give him a chance off 101. Pulled out yesterday, some blue for here, the only worry i have is as you say VTC dry week ahead, hopefully won’t be firm in the description. He has some form on it but Murtagh has been keen to mention he doesn’t want extremes.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!I have backed DONJUAN TRIUMPHANT at 25/1 ew today.
Looking at the weather Im guessing theres a fair chance its either going to be gd/frm or good ground. I didnt think I would be interested in the horse on fast ground but I have changed my mind and fast ground does not concern me at all.DONJUAN TRIUMPHANT won the Ayr gold cup in 2017 (at Haydock) from a mark of 109. He clearly has a very big chance of winning Gold cup number 2 from his current mark of 107.
All 6 of his career wins have come in the Autumn months and Balding who has won 2 of the last 6 runnings of this race has clearly targeted this horse at this race this season and will have him in absolute peak physical condition for this.
Started the season from being offically rated 112. Balding has placed the horse carefully and skillfully managed to get his mark down to 107 for the big target. No doubt he would have been happy to race him here off the 109 he won off so he must be delighted to have managed to get him down to 107.
He is a better horse over 6f than he is over 7f. 5 of his 6 wins were over 6f and although he did win a small field conditions race at haydock over 7f its definitely 6f where he excels at.
3 of his 5 races this season have been over 7f. He is also much better on a flat track than he is an undulating track but 3 of his 5 runs this season came on undulating tracks.
The only race where he has had suitable track and distance this season came at Newbury over 6f.
He wouldnt have been fully tuned for that race in July but was only 1 1/4 lengths behind KHAADEM giving him 5lb. Khaadem certainly was tuned up however and on his next run he absolutely hacked up at goodwood a run that saw him sent off as co favourite for the group 1 haydock sprint cup. When you bear in mind that balding has almost certainly trained this horse to peak for the Ayr gold cup then that run showed that this horse definitely retains his ability and is definitely well handicapped.
DON JUAN clearly thrives in big fields. He has ran 3 times in races with 16 or more runners winning two of them (the only defeat in a big runner field came at an undulating track in a summer month).
Although his Ayr gold cup win didnt actually come at Ayr he clearly likes ayr and its a track that plays to hs strengths. He ran twice here as a 2yo for Fahey and was 3rd (summer month) and 1st (september).
His career record in september is2-1-11-1-1-4
So thats 3 wins and a second with the two unplaced runs in september both coming at group 1 level.
Looks to have an absolutely outstanding chance of winning this race. The ground is the only possible issue here but I believe he is capable of running to his best even on good/frm ground.
The sire DREAM AHEAD won 5 group 1s, 2 of them on fast ground, 2 on good ground and one on gd/sft. He was a horse who could perform on any going.
When you look at his top offspring most of them appear to also be able to perform on a variety of goings.
AL WUAKIR who won on soft and 3 times om good but his best run was on fast ground when 3rd in a group 1.
DARK VISION won twice on gd/frm and 1 on good.
FOREVER IN DREAMS won on soft, gd/sft with his best run so far coming on good/firm.
DREAM OF DREAMS has won on soft,gd/sft and polytrack though his best run was when 2nd to Blue Point on fast ground (even with that form being suspect).
The variety of grounds continues as you go through DREAM AHEADS offspring. So from the sire persepective good to firm ground (or any other)should not be an issue at all.
The Dam MATHUNA has so far produced 4 horses who have won races.
Donjuan Triumphant is the best and has won 6 times on heavy,soft, good and gd/sft.
CALEDONIAN SPRING has won 2 of 6 races. 1 win on gd/sft but best win on fast ground.
BACACARAT won on fast ground and also standard/slow polytrack.
So both the dam side and sire side of family produce horses who in the main go on any ground conditions but perhaps are at there very best on gd/firm and as such although its publicly percieved that Don is at his best with cut it may well be that he is in fact at his best on fast ground.
Pedigree is all well and good as a guide but Don has been beaten in all 5 career runs on fast ground.
He was btn a head 2nd on fast ground on 2yo debut over 6f and then beaten a neck on his 3rd run as a 2yo on fast ground over 6f.
So the two times he raced over his ideal trip on fast ground he actually went very close. Also bear in mind that neither of those runs were in his beloved autumnal months and these were early season 2yo races as an inexperienced horse.2yo form can be iffy of course and fitness is as important as ground in those early 2yo races but he still performed on the surface (which his breeding suggests he would).
He has raced 3 times on fast ground as an older horse being unplaced all 3 times. 2 of those runs however were over a testing 7f on an undulating track (leicester) in April both times.
Those runs can be completely forgotten and it wasnt the ground that beat him. Even the run at leicester over 7f last year when 3rd wasnt bad as the winner won a group 3 on his next start and the 2nd won a group 2 next time up. He was about 5 lengths back in 3rd but 7f on a testing and undulating track stretched him, he actually handled the ground just fine.
He was also 9th of 9 at York on fast ground. Although the track should have suited him it was over 7f in group 3 company in a summer month in 2018 and can be easily forgiven as he was trained to peak in the autumn which he did in no uncertain terms when 3rd in the champion sprint stakes behind Sands of Mali and Harry Angel. He is again entered in that race this year and with no Harry Angel this time then the 40/1 may look very big indeed after the Ayr Gold cup assuming of course that he hacks up at Ayr (which I am assuming).He wil be fully tuned up to peak here, he is well handicapped and has been targeted at this race the big field suits as does the flat track, as foes the 6f, he retains all of his ability and the ground really shouldnt be an issue and may even turn out to be a bonus he also thrives in the month of September.
I think DONJUAN TRIUMPHANT is one of the handicap bets of the 2019 season at 25/1 (whichever way the ground goes) and I cannot wait to see him
I have got half of what I intend to have om the horse at 25/1 and will put the rest on the horse after final declarations. Balding has always publicly said the horse needs testing ground so there is a slight worry he wont declare him if its fast but come on Andrew Balding wise up and give this horse his chance. He has NEVER had the opportunity to show us what he can do over 6f on fast ground on a flat track in an autumnal month. He has appeared to enjoy the fast ground and act on it in all 5 races and I wouldnt put the reason for any of the fast ground defeats down to the fast ground itself. There were always other reasons.
DO NOT BOTTLE THIS BALDING
THE TEAM ARE BEGGING YOU TO SEE SENSEI see Balding said yesterday evening that if the ground turns fast then Stone Of Destiny will ‘probably’ go to Ayr rather than Newbury and Donjuan wont take part.
Surely he is just trying to ramp the price up for him and his friends big gamble on THE DON.
THE DON will turn up even on fast ground. I dont believe what he is claiming.
The team has 2 rules in life:
NEVER TRUST A POLITICIAN
NEVER TRUST A RACEHORSE TRAINERThe Don as you like to call him Potato was tipped up by Paul Kealy in The Weekender as well. He is having a cracking season, so i wouldn’t be certain he’ll be drifting.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!STONE OF DESTINY 33/1 If he turns up could go group 3 i think be better off here and Balding has good record in race
STAXTON 33/1 Other bet to
The Don as you like to call him Potato was tipped up by Paul Kealy in The Weekender as well. He is having a cracking season, so i wouldn’t be certain he’ll be drifting
Well im assuming the weekender came out last weekend?
THE DON was 20/1 max last weekend and is now 25/1 as both corals and ladbrokes pushed him out on Monday.So Paul whoever he may be Kealy did not cause any price collapse whatsoever.
Well im assuming the weekender came out last weekend?
THE DON was 20/1 max last weekend and is now 25/1 as both corals and ladbrokes pushed him out on Monday.So Paul whoever he may be Kealy did not cause any price collapse whatsoever.
Incorrect assumption.
It comes out every Wednesday, and there is some blue on oddschecker.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Donjuan unlikely to run.
Trainer said….
‘We’ll be watching the weather forecast closely and he’ll only go there if the ground is right as he wants ground slower than good’
The balding comments has already beem covered about 3 posts up Mike.
The sheeple are in a state of total confusion with the current situatiom.
Some bloke called paul kealy from the weekender is telling them to back THE DON.
The trainer is pretending THE DON wont turn up.
TOTAL CONFUSION FOR THE SHEEPLE
THEY HAVE NO IDEA WHAT TO DO
I think I may have found the winner of this.
Summerghand 12-1.
All he wants is a fast pace up front, for them to come back to him, and he can pounce late on and take the title.
Been knocking on the door all season, this is the race where the door opens I think.The way I see the situation developing with THE DON is this.
On Thursday even though there will be no soft in the going description at Ayr. Balding WILL declare the horse at the 48 hour dec stage and make a statement similar to this:
“We were desperate for rain for THE DON but sadly it hasnt arrived which has severely dented his chnaces. After a discussion with the owners racing manager we have decided to take our chance and run him anyway as we want to get a run into him before the champions day sprint at Ascot.”
2 hours later Mr Balding is seen placing a substantial bet on THE DON to win.
I went for this on front page Mike, but felt alone in my views
Thanks to Pat’s Saturday’s Handicap comp for highlighting him to me. My choice in both the Steward’s Cup (Goodwood) & Great St Wilfrid (Ripon) I noticed he’s an hold up horse who likes a strong gallop and finishes very strong. I’ve already selected him for Pat’s Ante Post comp, and backed accordingly.
However looking around a case can be made for Mr Lupton, Richard Fahey’s sole runner in the race. Reading on Racing TV app on my phone, he says that after winning a Group 2 at the Curragh back in May, he’s not found racing easy. They tried Group 1 level, but Fahey decided he’s not up to that level, so they dropped him in class. Because this is a condensed handicap he’ll only be giving away around a stone, not two. Fahey is hoping for a fast pace and his horse loves coming off a fast pace.
This to me seems like a confident builder and the are no guarantees in racing, but has strong claims in my opinion.
You've got to accentuate the positive.
Eliminate the negative.
Latch on to the affirmative.
Don't mess with mister in between.Potato, correct me if I’m wrong but is Andrew Balding a stable which bets. Because I don’t think he is
You've got to accentuate the positive.
Eliminate the negative.
Latch on to the affirmative.
Don't mess with mister in between.
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