- This topic has 592 replies, 11 voices, and was last updated 6 years ago by
.
- Posts
It is impossible to update when I find I have forgot to post them. Anyway they both lost
Billy's Outback Shack
This is a funny business MrE and remains a mystery to me how something starts so well and then dies in such a way. Frustration abounds.
Billy's Outback Shack
A quarter of the way through February and the running total for the month is a LOSS of 19.82 points
The strike rate is OK 18/57 31%, but the prices of the winners are at the front of the market. Ordering the selections by price shows all winners are below 4.18 and at no point is there a profit worth talking about.28 selection for Saturday.
08/02/20 Time Track Race No. Horse 00:35 TeRa 3 5 VOLER POUR MOI 00:50 Ricc 3 2 OWEN PATRICK 01:35 Caul 1 5 STREET SHEIK 01:46 Morp 1 1 GOD'S PENNY 02:14 Newc 1 3 SCICONIC 02:20 TeRa 5 6 TRAVELLING LIGHT 02:41 Gilg 1 4 ATEALL 02:49 Newc 2 3 COVERT OPS 03:05 Warw 3 3 PANDEMIC 03:08 Beau 1 1 EDIFICATION 03:41 Beau 2 4 MASTER OF THE TURF 03:55 Caul 5 1 MICROPHONE 03:59 Newc 4 2 PARRY SOUND 04:15 Warw 5 9 CELLSABEEL 04:45 Yarr 5 5 BIT OF A LAD 04:50 Warw 6 11 KATALIN 05:18 Cair 3 4 CORINTH 05:30 Warw 7 12 RUBISAKI 05:54 Newc 7 1 ON THE WHITE TURF 05:58 Cair 4 3 BETTAHONEY 06:10 Warw 8 8 SMARTEDGE 06:13 Beau 6 1 WILL'S BID 06:36 Alic 4 5 BLACK RANGE 06:41 Morp 9 8 KYSHAKA 06:50 Warw 9 6 ROYAL WITNESS 06:57 Pinj 6 1 FREE TRADE 07:35 Pinj 7 1 GEMMA'S SONI have lost the ability to count. There were 27 selection not 28, as if that would make any difference.
There were 10 non runners leaving 17 selections, 7 winners and a PROFIT of 1.22 points, (nah! not worth a smiley).Time Track Race No. Horse Price Result 00:35 TeRa 3 5 VOLER POUR MOI 3.34 WON 00:50 Ricc 3 2 OWEN PATRICK 2.64 WON 01:35 Caul 1 5 STREET SHEIK 3.20 01:46 Morp 1 1 GOD'S PENNY 4.15 02:14 Newc 1 3 SCICONIC 1.94 02:20 TeRa 5 6 TRAVELLING LIGHT 1.61 02:41 Gilg 1 4 ATEALL 2.32 02:49 Newc 2 3 COVERT OPS 2.08 WON 03:55 Caul 5 1 MICROPHONE 2.66 WON 04:45 Yarr 5 5 BIT OF A LAD 19.74 05:18 Cair 3 4 CORINTH 1.98 WON 05:54 Newc 7 1 ON THE WHITE TURF 5.01 WON 05:58 Cair 4 3 BETTAHONEY 1.97 06:36 Alic 4 5 BLACK RANGE 12.50 06:41 Morp 9 8 KYSHAKA 3.48 06:57 Pinj 6 1 FREE TRADE 2.49 07:35 Pinj 7 1 GEMMA'S SON 1.45 WONDolus – I am also finding it to be a bit of a struggle which perhaps is down to my heavy handiness about my staking.
I tinker, all the time I just can’t help it, tinker, tinker, tinker, trying to make improvements, whereas the Father of the forum, MrE, sticks to the plan and has done rather well.
There are 3 grades of tracks, metropolitan, provincial and country and with respect I ask if you have checked if any return fewer winners.
Just a thought?
Billy's Outback Shack
I respect Saturday racing or should I say I am wary, so many meetings and Saturday’s are said to be more competitive than most other days of the week.
I have ignored the country tracks plus Warwick Farm with HEAVY going!
I am still left with plenty to choose from but for better or worse my 4 selections each have something special in their favour: –
KYSHAKA – Morphetville, Race9 @ SP
SYLVIA’S MOTHER – Caulfield R9 @ 3.0 . . . . . . . . . . . . WON
CELEBERITY QUEEN – Pinjarra, R3 @ SP . . . . . . . . . . WON
GEMMA’S SON – Pinjarra R7 @ SP . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . WONAll are “starred” selections but SYLVIA’S MOTHER is a HYPED horse
SYLVIA’S MOTHER was the best priced winner whilst both the others were short odds-on and did not drift as I hoped.Billy's Outback Shack
billion– funny you should mention the different types of races courses as just the other day I decided to check it out and the findings weren’t worth reporting.
Metropolitan – mainly near cities
Provincial – less built up areas
Country – speaks for itself
Most big races are at the Metro and some at the Provincial tracks.Most of the time the country tracks do not even figure with off course bookmakers or the Tab. I thought that if even the Australians aren’t that bothered with them then they might be absolute rubbish for betting or full of opportunities.
Out with the data base and check the past week on R&S 29th Jan to 5th Feb.
Races I had a selection in All races 31/84 37% strike -14.14 points. Metropolitan 7/20 35% strike -6.30 points. Provincial 5/22 23% strike -10.02 points. Country 19/42 45% strike +2.17 points.So it seems on that very small sample that the country racing has a very small edge. It could also mean that the worksheets I use to pick the selections from might work out country races better.
As for staking there was some advice in one of Clive Holts books about staking that over the years I have found to be true is “The most economical and profitable bet is a single win bet on just one horse in the race”, so I always aim to stake 1% of the starting bank on each horse. As I am only ever in testing mode that is £10 for the bank and 10p each bet.
12 for Sunday
09/02/20 Time Track Race No. Horse 02:40 Nara 2 1 DESERT SPIRIT 02:55 PortM 1 1 OAKFIELD NAVAJO 03:15 Nara 3 7 DABAY 03:45 Hoba 6 2 STILL A STAR 03:50 Nara 4 2 CANNY MOVE 04:15 Rock 2 4 EPHESIAN 04:50 Rock 3 5 BOSS BABY 05:30 Flem 2 7 RUTHERFORD 06:05 Rock 5 6 THE STOCKBROKER 06:10 Nara 8 7 SOLAAZEM 07:45 Narr 5 4 VITAL DANCER 08:55 Narr 7 5 BURNING PRIDEToday I present the mystery of the disappearing race meeting. I had a selection in Race 1 Port Maquire and when checking my Betfair account statement for the results there was no bet for this horse. Assuming it to be a non runner or abandoned I checked Racenet results to find the meeting did not exist, so on to R&S to check the selection and the meeting had also vanished from there too. Thinking I was going mad I checked my Betfair betting history and there it was???
AUS / PMaq (AUS) 9th Feb / 02:55 R1 1206m Mdn 1. Oakfield Navajo Back 194198731753 08-Feb-20
09:24 P 900 0.10 UnmatchedAnyway 4 from 11 and a profit of 3.95 points
Time Track Race No. Horse Price Result 02:40 Nara 2 1 DESERT SPIRIT 1.56 02:55 PortM 1 1 OAKFIELD NAVAJO ???? 03:15 Nara 3 7 DABAY 6.90 03:45 Hoba 6 2 STILL A STAR 1.76 WON 03:50 Nara 4 2 CANNY MOVE 3.70 04:15 Rock 2 4 EPHESIAN 3.33 WON 04:50 Rock 3 5 BOSS BABY 1.94 05:30 Flem 2 7 RUTHERFORD 5.35 06:05 Rock 5 6 THE STOCKBROKER 8.93 WON 06:10 Nara 8 7 SOLAAZEM 5.54 07:45 Narr 5 4 VITAL DANCER 3.98 08:55 Narr 7 5 BURNING PRIDE 1.64 WONDolus provides some interesting information which rather upsets my theory and so I will have to keep a closer watch on my results and just like himself I keep moving the goal posts.
I sometimes wonder if we do try too hard to mirror the professionals such as Clive Holt when they offer up advice which in the past has suited their own style of betting especially when betting larger sums caution must take centre stage even if it does not quite dovetail into what we as an individual may be trying to do. I have been a great fan of Clive Holt but I wonder if times have moved on since his day.
I have just the one selection for tomorrow, Sunday, at MOE, which I thought was worthy of checking Wikipedia to find out more but sadly there is not much to learn. The current population is circa 16,000 but is on a decline. Located approx. 80 miles east from the centre of Melbourne and about 30 miles from a winter sports area.
There was some interesting notes regarding horse racing of which I was surprised to learn it is the 3rd most attended sport behind Ozzie rules football and rugby league and has more racing venues than any other nation.
My One for the day: –
SUBLIME MISS – Moe R3 @ 13/10 . . . . . WON
Billy's Outback Shack
Good afternoon you young whippet… I was rather poorly yesterday, hence my lack of posts…. I think the Whoosh… Gone in my last post, might have been referring to my runs across the landing to get to the toilet…. runs and whooshes just about sums it up, I’ve worn a groove in the carpet.
So, after the furore of yesterday, it was decided that I should have a quiet day and wait until my legs stop shaking and return to their normal colour, lest people assume that whilst the rest of my body is deathly white, I have a deep tan running down the inside of my legs……. mmmm…. you would have thought it would have come off with a shower….
MrE
Hello again Fluffy, I’m gonna try and ram some food down my throat, I didn’t eat a lot yesterday and I’m famished…. but before I depart into the wilds that is my kitchen, I thought it pertinent to make a comment on the previous posts.
I must agree that the likes of Clive Holt, Adrian Massey, VDW and the others, they were the epitome of the Ratings projects, but as you say Fluffs, those times are long gone. There is still room for the ideas that they promote, but I am afraid that in this age of technology, they are found to be floundering. The computer programs and ratings databases are all the rage now and rightly so, what used to take hours upon hours of diligent study, can now be achieved in minutes…. I, as an old goat, find today’s “offerings” about the best you can get. In the past it was thought to be something special to eke out a few points per month from your local bookie, but nowadays you have a plethora of opportunities and I see absolutely no reason why, if you put the effort in, you can’t make yourself 10pts a month…. played correctly, that would be a massive boost to anyone’s income…. yep, the old guys played their parts, but it’s worth naught these days and is best left to gather dust….
MrE
I am pleased to see you are up and about again MrE and now is the time to get some of those electrolytes back into your system.
I did mention I am currently reading the Kieren Fallon autobiography and he stresses the importance of speed/pace as a winning factor and how he had to go to the USA in order to learn.
Billy's Outback Shack
Once again Fluffy One, you have hit the nail on the head…. there is no doubt that the Stateside racing has a lot to offer…. I was dedicated to it for awhile and you are absolutely spot on when you talk about speed and pace. They have sectional timing which tells you how a horse runs the race, that’s critical, the other countries don’t follow that lead yet, so yes, speed and pace are the answer…. but they are also the question. How do you define or calculate pace and speed using sectional timing…. if there was an answer, then the computer buffs would have worked it out already, but they haven’t… so you must begin to believe that sectional timing and pace are just toys to play with….
MrE
According to Fallon it took a while to master pace but gave him a huge advantage when he came back from the USA.
Billy's Outback Shack
Just 4 selections for tomorrow.
10/02/20 Time Track Race No. Horse 02:55 Bath 1 4 UPRISE 04:25 Tamw 3 1 GOLDEN AVENGER 04:40 Bath 4 9 ALSO COOL 05:20 Bath 5 8 DO NOT DISTURBAnother disappearing meeting:-
There were three meetings yesterday. Sunshine Coast was abandoned & Tamworth has disappeared leaving Bathhurst as the sole remaining meeting.2 winners from 3 and a profit of 1.93 points
Time Track Race No. Horse Price Result 02:55 Bath 1 4 UPRISE 2.93 04:40 Bath 4 9 ALSO COOL 3.44 WON 05:20 Bath 5 8 DO NOT DISTURB 1.82 WONDolus gets 2 from 3, those are the averages I like.
I do not have any selections for Tuesday with HEAVY ground at all the meetings, although I was only interested in just the one at Toowoomba.
I expect at last there is some summer rain which they have been praying for to kill of the bush fires and so I must not moan if I miss a meeting or two, it is their good fortune.
Billy's Outback Shack
billion – Maybe it is the heavy ground that affects the way the worksheets are compiled, as I only have 4 selections from 4 meetings.
11/02/20 Time Track Race No. Horse 02:30 Warr 1 1 ACHAEUS 04:05 Scon 3 1 GOLDEN AVENGER 04:30 Warr 5 8 HEAVENLY BRIDGES 06:30 Scon 7 11 INSTITUTION1 Non runner, so 1 winner from 3, a LOSS of 1.30 points
Time Track Race No. Horse Price Result 02:30 Warr 1 1 ACHAEUS 2.06 04:05 Scon 3 1 GOLDEN AVENGER 1.78 WON 04:30 Warr 5 8 HEAVENLY BRIDGES 3.70I have always found the quietness regarding race meetings are a massive red flag for myself. Times such as today when I have just the one selection at Wolverhampton and nothing to prepare for Tuesday in Australia, these days become ideal for idle hands when the temptation to tinker is greatest.
I have for many years regarded HEAVY ground conditions with caution but most times I have been tempted into a bet or two, knowing it not to be wise, after all Form is not my thing and finding mud-larks are a no, no! But, with little else to do on such days I go looking for something, anything.
Could LESS really be MORE? I am starting to think maybe so. The bookies must love these days and I would not be surprised if they do indeed make more from less.
Many years ago, 17/18 years I think it was when I stopped smoking, I sat on my hands, truly, I did sit on my hands because smoking was a habit for me and maybe today I should repeat the process of sitting on my hands and not tinker with betting and system ideas.
Billy's Outback Shack
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.