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15 selections for tomorrow and I thought Sunday might be quiet. Still it won’t interfere with going to church and praying for some winners.
19/01/20 Time Track Race No. Horse 01:40 TeRa 4 12 ALWAYS SACRED 02:10 Cowr 1 4 PRESS WEEK 02:25 Werr 1 12 SUMMER LOVER 02:45 Cowr 2 4 COLONEL VON TRAPP 03:00 Werr 2 1 PAY YOUR DUES 03:05 Suns 1 8 DON'TDIE WONDERING 03:20 Cowr 3 4 KATE LEA 03:50 Ston 3 4 IGNITING 04:44 Musw 4 2 MY BENALLA 05:00 Alba 1 2 REDWOOD RANSOM 05:20 Musw 5 14 WANDONNA 06:07 Suns 6 4 LET'S CHEER AGAIN 06:20 Cowr 8 3 CATCHA CROWN 06:45 Suns 7 2 PERFECT AIM 07:25 Suns 8 3 STUTTERING1/3rd of the selections were non runners, leaving 10 of which 5 won, and a heady 0.57 points profit.
Time Track Race No. Horse BSP Result 02:10 Cowr 1 4 PRESS WEEK 2.14 WON 02:25 Werr 1 12 SUMMER LOVER 3.37 03:00 Werr 2 1 PAY YOUR DUES 1.33 WON 03:05 Suns 1 8 DON'TDIE WONDERING 2.69 03:20 Cowr 3 4 KATE LEA 13.95 04:44 Musw 4 2 MY BENALLA 3.75 WON 05:00 Alba 1 2 REDWOOD RANSOM 3.60 06:07 Suns 6 4 LET'S CHEER AGAIN 1.82 WON 06:20 Cowr 8 3 CATCHA CROWN 7.75 07:25 Suns 8 3 STUTTERING 2.05 WONI know it’s sad, but Billy’s made me like this…..
As Old Bill harped on about earlier, I dislike having too many bets on any one day and I always look for ways to “trim” down my selections so that I’m left with what I consider to be “comfortable”…. I don’t know how you pick your selections DOLUS, but there was something that I noticed that may, or may not, be of some help.If you just look at the horses race card number and just make a note of the horses at number 5 or lower (so lower in the weights), you get some nice figures and a 13pts profit after 5 days, if that were to continue, you would reach 80pts in a month…. not likely I admit, but its food for thought and might be something to look at.
You have 14 winners from 34 selections and the LLR is 6….. and you would gain a lot more if you took early prices.
MrE
MrE thanks for the tip.
I enter all my selections and results into a database, it’s the only way of knowing what is really happening.
My first posted selections were on the 13th (6 days worth),and I make it 63 selections, 26 winners (41% strike rate), and 9.91 points profit.
I started recording them on the 7th to 12th also 6 days worth and that period was more profitable There were 61 selections, 25 winners (41% strike rate), uncannily the same but the profit was 32.82 points. The difference that this week I have only been trapping the shorties. The previous week I had winners at these prices 7.21, 8.80, 11.50,7.04,7.11,12.22.
It is not viable to take early Betfair prices on the Aussie races as most markets have not been formed, but I am beating the SP by 13% after deducting all the different commission rates, so that is small comfort. Actually I have never taken prices, haven’t a clue how to predict the market. It seems some you win some you lose ,(prices that is). I do know that on Betfair when taking their SP it does not make much difference with favourites but I can really gain with bigger priced horses. Mind you this is from someone who only bets small stakes, (really small stakes) as I seem to be permanently is the testing phase. If I was betting big bucks I might take a different view.
When you said number 5 or lower (carrying less weight) you really meant 5 or higher, (5,6,7,8…). Looking at all the selections there is a profit of 42.73 points, 5 and higher is 33.45 points profit. There were 76 selections and 29 winners 38% strike.
I see another stat number 12 or higher, 12 selections, 9 winners 75% strike rate, 16.41 profit.
As losing runs were mentioned earlier and while I have the database open, I’ve had losing runs with this of 7,7,6 and 5, all others 4 or below.
There may be plenty out there for Dolus but for my UK plays has been more than limited and with only a single pick for tomorrow at Wolverhampton 2.00 PROMPTING @ 11/10. . . Won 1/3 how pleased am I having taken an early price
Because of the few numbers I tested the same idea over the jumps today and ended being pleased I had not risked any of the Billion pounds.
Billy's Outback Shack
Dolus…. nice so far, I can see that you’ve got all angles covered and that’s what’s needed…. I only mentioned what I saw in case it had slipped through without notice…. keep going, it’s looking promising…
MrE
Hello my old wombat…. it’s 11.30pm and your probably asleep after exhausting yourself trying to do what us old ‘uns have to resort to these days… I always find that it makes my arms ache…. good job Matron is available for relief with the Bromide… or Nathan with the other relief…..
Racing in the UK is best left alone for awhile, we really need a longer period of decent weather to arouse my passion for the racing in this country…. if I’m gonna lose money, I’d rather the Aussies or the Yanks have it…
Politically incorrect and not really patriotic, but I don’t give a rat’s arse when it comes to making money…. catch you when you wake up my little dingo, you certainly are in need of that beauty sleep, your almost as ugly as Nathan….
MrE
Dire, dire stuff for Monday in Australia with just two meetings at Queanbeyan & Taree of which I cannot find anything on which to risk my pound.
I was looking at your alternative process MrE but it is not a lot better and so I will just have to content myself with the one domestic runner at Wolv’s. today.
Roll on Summer!
Billy's Outback Shack
Good morning to you my good friend Skippy…. although Monday racing is usually pretty poor wherever you look, you have to peer through the gloom in case a little glint of gold should catch your eye…. I am hoping that we can keep this lucky streak going with this little glint….
OZZY’S BETS….
Race 3 Queanbeyan… Tourmaster @ 2.50…. LOST….
MrE
Is AYR a strange place? It will do for today.
It’s Sunday morning and yes I agree at my age I should be hedging my bets and going to church but there was before the rain started some cricket being played in South Africa and we are in the box seat.
A lack of quality racing both at home and in Australia and I am climbing the walls. So, I have been flirting with Winter AW stuff here at home and have just got the edge over the bookies but it is nothing to brag about and in truth is not worth the effort but it does keep me off the streets.
I have turned my attention to AYR where the going is said to be Heavy, LESSON NO1 – DO NOT BET WHEN THE GOING IS HEAVY– a condition I have vowed to avoid at all cost but without putting a penny at risk and as said being bored I thought for today I will float something I have been skirting around the edges of.
ATR, DOMESTIC EXPERIMENT 4 FAVOURITES.
Simple and easy with just the ATR site to visit.
1. Select the live favourite which is not odds on and there is clear water between it and the next priced horse.
2. Is it the forecast Favourite – if so carry on.
3. The choice of ATR tipster (below the race card)
4 The choice of TimeForm (also below the card).
There you are – done!
AYr today: –
12.40 ZAMBEZI FIX 6/5 OH BOY! AM I PLEASED I DID NOT BET
1.50 DALI MAIL 6/5 ON ANY OF THESE!!!!
3.00 ALOOMOMO 6/4
3.30 THAT’S MY DUBAI 2/1Should you so wish any additional filters can be added and according to a recent post of MrE perhaps only those at 2/1 or more should be punted, such as THAT’S MY DUBAI.
C-D-C/D, recent winners.
Perhaps only with a card number below 5 (MrE yet again) brings ZAMBEZI FIX (8) into play.
The permutations are endless.
Billy's Outback Shack
Skippy….. that card number 5 and greater, was only meant for Dolus’ selections…..
MrE
Yeah I got that MrE but it was simply an example of how to mix ‘n match around the central plan suggestion, who knows someone may just want to play the first or earliest race (or two) etc.
Perhaps runners with only apprentice riders (or not), favourite trainers and on and on and on.
Billy's Outback Shack
Six selections for Monday, like having a half day off.
20/01/20 Time Track Race No. Horse 01:53 Otak 4 8 SPIRIT OF GALWAY 02:55 Quea 1 6 SHE'S ALL IN 03:03 Otak 6 4 TIGERTIGER 03:30 Quea 2 7 TIZ WAR BRO 04:25 Tare 4 7 CLASSIC GOWN 04:40 Quea 4 1 KATIE DID ITOne non runners leaving 5 selections, 2 winners, profit 1.76 points
Time Track Race No. Horse Price Result 01:53 Otak 4 8 SPIRIT OF GALWAY 5.11 WON 02:55 Quea 1 6 SHE'S ALL IN 6.00 03:03 Otak 6 4 TIGERTIGER 9.85 03:30 Quea 2 7 TIZ WAR BRO 4.30 04:40 Quea 4 1 KATIE DID IT 2.00 WONHaving just watched England win the 3rd test in Port Elizabeth, Sth. Africa it has got to be a good day today.
Yes indeed MrE, a g’day to you too, I had high hopes of ALL FAIRY PRINCE with a very high rating only to have it scratched.
Plan B finds at last a Hype Horse IGNITING R4 Warrambool but at odds-on I will pass it by.
However I still have 2 candidates for the billion pound or perhaps I should say, Dollar: –
LADY JACKIO – R4 Werribee @ 5/4
DESERT COWBOY – R6 Cairns @ 9/5Can you Adam & Eve it! Both placed 2nd
—————————————————————————————————–Monday’s AW will be giving me a little fun today I am sure: –
DOUBLE LEGEND – Kempton 4.20 @ 2/1
TULANE – Wolverhampton 6.55 @ 2.15/1Billy's Outback Shack
Half a dozen for Tuesday
21/01/20 Time Track Race No. Horse 02:35 Warr 2 3 ELITE PRINCESS 02:50 Werr 2 5 THREE LEGS IN 03:25 Werr 3 7 JOHN BARLEY CORN 03:45 Warr 4 7 IGNITING 03:53 Cair 1 6 DIVINE MELODY 04:00 Werr 4 5 CONDAMINE2 winners from 6 and a LOSS of 3.22 points
Time Track Race No. Horse Price Result 02:35 Warr 2 3 ELITE PRINCESS 8.99 02:50 Werr 2 5 THREE LEGS IN 1.53 WON 03:25 Werr 3 7 JOHN BARLEY CORN 2.22 03:45 Warr 4 7 IGNITING 1.30 WON 03:53 Cair 1 6 DIVINE MELODY 3.35 04:00 Werr 4 5 CONDAMINE 4.78Tuesday, here and there.
First off is Australia: –
LADY JACKIO – Werribee R4 @ 5/4
DESERT COWBOY – Cairns R6 @ 9/5Newcastle AW – UK; –
HASSAAD – 5.15 @ 1.88/1.
Billy's Outback Shack
Good afternoon little Cuddly Koala…. today wraps up Week 3 of this attempt to squeeze blood from a stone… we pulled some back from that decimation that was Week 2 and we’ve finished on about +9pts. It was only a quick tally up so I might have missed a few shillings either way, but we’ll play safe and call the balance + 8pts.
It’s below what I expected, but I am still tinkering and Aussie is something new….. lets see if we can get close to the 10pts profit that you wanted by the end of the month…. if we can, I’ll be well chuffed….
MrE
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