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billion – Neurals are hard for most people to understand. Neural networks to give the full name are a branch of artificial intelligence that mimics how the human brain works.
Artificial neural networks or connectionist systems are computing systems vaguely inspired by the biological neural networks that constitute animal brains. Such systems "learn" to perform tasks by considering examples, generally without being programmed with task-specific rules. WikipediaLuckily we don’t have to know any of that with Racingandsports neurals as they are columns of ratings for different aspects of the horses abilities totalled to give a final rating. What those numbers mean or how they are related to each we will have to ask the program as it’s the only one who knows.
Ratings are good, described by someone as a shortcut to the form book, but what we really need are good ratings that not many people are using. I have never been a believer in taking too much notice of prices, a mechanism so the bookies can steer punters to the wrong horse and if the punters don’t fall for it and back the right horse they shorten it, (allegedly).
My UK AW selection for Friday: –
CLIFF WIND – Lingfield, 1.35 @ 6/4
Dolus – I very first came across Neurals 30+ years ago when it appeared in the paper (or hard copy in today’s terminology) version of Smart SIG magazine and it felt far too complicated for me then as does your explanation today. However, because it does not float my boat does not mean it is wrong or of no value because we each must find our own pathway.
Billy's Outback Shack
I am quite sure that “Neurals” are the modern computerised way forward, but it still requires a different approach than to just look at the finished ratings, that won’t work…. and that’s not what this new form of rating was meant for. What we look at now is a complete rating of various factors taken from computer generated algorithms, I’m not trying to fuzz you with overload, so I’m attempting to explain it the best way I can. Neurals are generated by various computer calculations as Dolus has already stated, but everyone tends to look at the final rating….. NOT the answer… oh, if only it was that easy….
what it does is to give you a SERIES of ratings to reach that final figure… what YOU have to do is to find out which particular rating (or ratings) that afford you the most profitable results. It might be going plus class, or perhaps speed and distance, whatever your poison, you have to put the work in to find your selections.
It’s my own personal opinion, so no “needle” intended, but putting 12 to 14 selections together will NOT result in profits, it’s far too staggered and is just the same as pin sticking, there has to be something outstanding, something strong and tangible…. anything other than a firm, confident approach is just long term failure…. a 100/1 winner is useless if you have 102 losers…. there has to be a refined and consistent method of selection, even with Neurals… and I do love neurals….
Good posts and it’s what this forum is lacking…. everybody is banging tips up, but nobody is even bothering to query and ask questions… it doesn’t come easy guys, it never has, but you’ll learn nothing by keeping quiet….
MrE
I think that it’s only fair to give recognition where it’s deserved… and whether he likes it or not, it has to go to that old fart Billion.
He arrived back on the scene after something close to 12 months away and in a short period of just 6 weeks he has ignited a dead systems section. I am NOT being detrimental to Matron being the head of Ward 7 and in control of all battery driven pleasure tools, but also to VTC and Alexander for keeping the place breathing. But the lights were off, the heating was off, Ward 7 had mould and mildew on the walls. Billy the Skirt came back and the lights came on, the heating is spot on and Matron has washed all that suspect sticky stuff off the walls (mildew).
It has also been noticed that she (Matron) has lost that ashen grey colour and it is said (quietly) that she has sometimes been seen prowling the dormitories with a smile on her face…. that hasn’t happened for a few months unless Matron was taking gripe water for wind…. but she was relieved at the sudden influx of patients.
The loser in all this is poor old Nathan…. always referred to by Matron, as Aladdin, because he was always rubbing his lamp (that’s a funny name for it)… so poor old Nathan has his nose put out of joint, but I know he’ll survive, all the trauma of not being top dog… yes, his income will drop because nobody is interested in a guy with piles when they have fresh meat with Biilly… treat Biily right and he’s all yours willingly…. upset him and the padlocks on that chastity belt go on in an instant…. be gentle with Billy, his legs aint up to it any longer… those knees can only spread so far and then it’s a dislocated hip…. be careful with him, treat it with a bit of respect….. Way to go Billy, I hope I’ve lined you up….your old mate forever…
MrE
Must admit that I had forgotten about neurals although I did dabble a few years back.
Never really got them to work then and not sure if I have the patience now to try them again.I've stumbled on the side of twelve misty mountains
I've walked and I crawled on six crooked highwaysI do believe MrE has been at the bottle of Welsh Water once again . . . . . ho hum!
I am somewhat concerned of the poor returns from Australia since the turn of the year and previously when such a sharp decline has happened I have taken a short break to allow whatever is proving disruptive to have it’s moment and then pass.
I promised myself to post and record such profit/loss (which I hate doing not having any accountancy skills) for the month of January and will continue to do so but I have shared my concern regarding week-end betting and therefore taking advantage of giving the poor results an opportunity to recover by giving this week-end a miss.
I am wondering if the smoke hazard from the forest fires could possibly be the partial cause of my poor results when seeing tennis players collapsing because of the poor air quality, who knows?
Anyway a 48 hour break will not do any harm.
Billy's Outback Shack
Once again I cannot help but notice gambling has hit the news which rather tarnishes all of us who enjoy a punt as being losers who cannot control their gambling which be it a Saturday punt or a trip to the bingo hall.
We may not win but are not the sad losers which such publicity makes us out to be. Although I feel sorry for such folk who use credit cards to gamble away their fortune and I believe it wrong for us all to be tarnished in the same bracket as the few who cannot control a habit.
I further am of the mind it is not the gambling industry of being in the wrong but something else is endemic within society as being the root cause. Yet again we feel the backlash of political correctness as appears to be the fashion these days.
Billy's Outback Shack
Dolus has posted some impressive results with 6 winners – if only every day was just as good – well done
Billy's Outback Shack
Good afternoon Kanga my friend…. there are strange happenings down in Oz and some of it remains unexplained, such as the changing of position in the ratings from my making my selections at 10.00am and checking the before posting on here at midday…. why should computer rating change within a two hour period…. odd!!!….
Nonetheless, this excellent thread is not meant to be a serious stab at making huge inroads, it’s too early for that, the idea was to ponder around the different countries to find out if life was any easier elsewhere whilst UK horses get swimming practice. I think your being a bit hard on yourself Bill, we are all just pottering and licking hot custard from around the edge of the bowl, it’ll take another couple of weeks to reach all that nice sweet jam in the middle.
All sorts of crap happening down there and it’s things that don’t make sense, so time is needed to oil the workings…. keep on trucking Bill…. anything for a laugh….
MrE
And WATER!!!…. what’s that????…..
I am following my gut MrE, after all is that not how we all started when picking a name or a jockey etc. when making our very first Grand National bet all those many years ago?
If something looks wrong, feels wrong, it probably is wrong. At this time it may be the poor air quality, after all I did read of a trainer pulling all his horses out of training until the situation has improved, maybe he is following his gut as well.
That said I do like your selection WAR ANTHEM, let’s hope it adds to your retirement fund.
Another fine winner for you MrE
Billy's Outback Shack
Lots of meetings tomorrow though some are not covered by Betfair, but still left plenty of meat on the bone to get 21 selections from 104 races
18/01/2020 Time Track Race No. Horse 02:31 Murr 2 1 JYOTI 02:59 Kemb 2 8 EXACT REPLICA 03:19 Tumu 2 5 CARE FACTOR 04:10 Flem 1 3 AMATEURISH 04:18 Gold 3 8 THE INVESTIGATOR 04:19 Gore 9 2 DECEPTIO VISUS 04:21 Murr 5 6 KYSHAKA 04:37 Asco 1 1 MONEY MATTERS 04:42 Eagl 4 12 MOSSHIKI 04:58 Gold 4 12 FAITH AND LOVE 05:57 Asco 3 7 SUNNYSILK 06:25 Alic 3 6 SUPREME DEAL 06:50 Flem 5 2 BOLD STAR 07:06 Laun 2 12 TERRIFIC TORRI 07:14 Asco 5 2 VALOUR ROAD 07:40 Laun 3 1 EASY ROAD 07:50 Asco 6 7 PLAYS THE GAME 07:54 Eagl 9 12 PENNINO 08:00 Flem 7 1 THE LORD MAYOR 08:40 Laun 5 12 STILL A STAR 08:50 Asco 8 1 ESSENTIAL SPICEAbandoned meetings loses 3 selections leaving 18, giving 7 winners and 3.54 points profit.
Time Track Race No. Horse 02:31 Murr 2 1 JYOTI 3.00 03:19 Tumu 2 5 CARE FACTOR 5.29 04:10 Flem 1 3 AMATEURISH 5.11 04:19 Gore 9 2 DECEPTIO VISUS 3.44 04:21 Murr 5 6 KYSHAKA 4.76 WON 04:37 Asco 1 1 MONEY MATTERS 1.48 WON 04:42 Eagl 4 12 MOSSHIKI 2.82 05:57 Asco 3 7 SUNNYSILK 7.26 06:25 Alic 3 6 SUPREME DEAL 3.55 06:50 Flem 5 2 BOLD STAR 3.19 WON 07:06 Laun 2 12 TERRIFIC TORRI 5.74 WON 07:14 Asco 5 2 VALOUR ROAD 1.68 WON 07:40 Laun 3 1 EASY ROAD 3.85 07:50 Asco 6 7 PLAYS THE GAME 18.46 07:54 Eagl 9 12 PENNINO 3.77 WON 08:00 Flem 7 1 THE LORD MAYOR 5.40 08:40 Laun 5 12 STILL A STAR 1.87 WON 08:50 Asco 8 1 ESSENTIAL SPICE 2.80billion posted:-
Dolus has posted some impressive results with 6 winners – if only every day was just as good – well doneThanks billion for the vote of confidence.
Just an update on Stateside racing thus far…. I mentioned a few days ago, that I had dusted off a couple of my old ideas on racing from the otherside… well, I am a tad surprised at present because it’s working out quite well and it makes a pleasant change to watching my selections lose when slopping around in the mud over here in good old Blighty.
I completed Day 10 yesterday with 2 losers…. but we still made a 12pts profit….
I am now on a losing run of 4 and my bum is getting that nervous twitch…. and it has nothing at all to do with Matron or Nathan…. I am going to enjoy seeing where this take us over the coming weeks, but a losing run of any length will tempt me to shelve it… I get nervous easily now I’m in my dotage….
MrE
MrE, you have nerves of steel and I really cannot see you as being any state of panic at this early stage, which rather brings me back to my main topic of Australia.
How good it is to see at last they are experiencing some rain which I hope will bring an end to the fire season.
However, there is a down side and like MrE I have not been having an enjoyable run of form, rightly or wrong I have a habit to tinker in order to turn things around and only yesterday I thought I had spotted an adjustment ( a tinker here and one there, add a filter or remove one, sadly is my way) finding WAR ANTHEM glaring at me from the screen and then to see it as MrE‘s pick of the day. With some excitement I applied myself today to find another but despite the racecourse name SUNSHINE COAST the conditions are said to be HEAVY in the extreme, so although I am pleased there is some rain it may have thwarted my selection: –
Sunshine Coast – Race 4 – WINTER PASSAGE @ 9/5 . . . . . Non Runner
Billy's Outback Shack
what it does is to give you a SERIES of ratings to reach that final figure… what YOU have to do is to find out which particular rating (or ratings) that afford you the most profitable results. It might be going plus class, or perhaps speed and distance, whatever your poison, you have to put the work in to find your selections.
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