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Ascot Chase 2019

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Viewing 15 posts - 46 through 60 (of 64 total)
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  • #1398235
    MarkTTMarkTT
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    • Total Posts 2713

    Altior will probably need a step up in trip to surpass that mark.

    #1398236
    ham
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2570

    178, idiots…. so when he underperforms going left handed they have to start dropping him down

    That is not a 178 horse, cannot be throwing around those figures for two freak performances, they have to assess how they rate horses at the upper end of the scale

    #1398237
    ham
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2570

    SO to put this into perspective, glen forsa demolished kalashnikov 19lengths eased in the same fashion cyrname did to his field, kalashnikov is rated 152 and glen forsa was 138 and goes up to 150 after doing it, so still 2lbs behind kalashnikov, when in reality he should be rated about 9lbs higher than kalashnikov but theyv used common sense and though that would probably be too high

    But with cyrname common sense has totally and utterly went out the window and theyv gave him a rating only the elite of the absolute elite get to, not even altior has reached yet in 178

    #1398245
    KevMcKevMc
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1250

    Cyrname smashed up horses who on the figures and lines of form in behind looked to run their race.

    The time was a COURSE RECORD, backing up what a brilliant performance it was.

    It was an elite performance, regardless of whether you think it was a one-off they have to rate him on that performance (aided by his demolition the time before). If he goes and gets beat next time at Punchestown then he will be reduced to below Altior. BDM & Native River were both rated above Altior at one stage and have since been reduced to just below him.

    Altior has never broken track records or beaten a 165 rated field 19L basically on the snaff. That’s in part due to his racing style and half due to opportunity, which he hasn’t had. He’s my favourite horse in training and probably ever, but i don’t disagree with Cyrname being rated higher as he’s done it. Altior hasn’t pushed his level to a OR of 180 yet, and the handicapper can’t put him on that level on the potential which most agree is definitely there.

    Cyrname hasn’t just improved out of nowhere, Paul has explained in brilliant detail why he’s now blossoming.

    End of the day, who really cares? They’re never going to run in handicaps and the prestige of NH ratings is nowhere near as important as it is for the stallions on the flat.

    #1398255
    SteeplechasingSteeplechasing
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    • Total Posts 5769

    Good post, Kev

    Never argue with a fool. He will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience, then onlookers might not be able to tell the difference. https://lazybet.com/

    #1398258
    ham
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2570

    Altior has won multiple championship races, unbeaten in 18 races, he won a grade 2 by 19 lengths in december giving a 155 horse 3lbs without coming off the bridlewhich equates to running around a 180 figure, he beat politogue in the champion chase by further than cyrname did at the weekend, the ratings system is a joke and has no continuity,
    Why is glen forsa only rated 150 after fridays performAnce? It should be in the 160s after that? If your basing that on how they rated cyrname?
    Track records are nonsense its ground dependant, there only usually broken when the ground is fast and its an unusually dry winter? NH racing its about who copes with that ground the best, more important over flat racing

    The ratings on the flat do not matter to any of us but were all interested in it, so its the same as with jumps to any regular fan who is not a stud owner…

    Im fully aware they have to rate him on
    “That” performance but when your talking about going into the 175+ bracket they must start including in views that are mot necessarily as important at 120/140 rated races,

    Out of curiosity, how did anyone in behind run there race? What gives you the impression they ran there race? Is that politologues true running, is that aso’s true running? Im not saying they didnt, but how can you be so sure they did? The finished relatively bunched

    The explanation for cyrname “blossoming” is a broken record, there always “big babies” who need to “fill there frame” and get more “mature”

    #1398260
    homersimpson
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2268

    That is not a 178 horse, cannot be throwing around those figures for two freak performances.

    Two “freak” performances within a month aren’t freaks. Reason maybe that the horse has never felt better and race conditions suited and yes he may never hit that mark again but the handicapper has to rate on their best performance. He cannot give one rating for right handed tracks and one for left handed.

    #1398263
    KevMcKevMc
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1250

    Winning championship races and being unbeaten doesn’t come into ratings, the pure form does. Special Tiara won a below average QMCC, he shouldn’t have been rated close to Altior last year just because it was the same race as the form was at a different level.

    Altior gave a 155 horse a 19L beating giving him 3lbs – Cyrname gave a 165 horse a 17L beating off levels.
    Two lengths difference, but 10lbs ratings swing with those in behind give you around 2-4lbs in advantage of Cyrname. Give Altior the 3lb difference and they’re level say.
    Cyrname broke the track record and the form of those in behind is more solid than that of Diego Du Charmil, hence giving Cyrname a bigger rating.

    OR tell you that WP & FN ran around about their OR difference of 4lbs, the handicapper has thought they’ve both run about 5lbs below their best OR and Politologue slightly more in fourth.

    Filling the frame etc. wasn’t given as Cyrname’s improvement. watch the interview Nicholls did with RTV or the explanation Harry Derham gives on the FFP pod (not listened to it myself yet but read it’s very good).

    Glen Forsa ran an average time on the clock and Kalashnikov was extremely slow over his fences and his jockey gave up trying the last half mile of the race, running well below his best OR. They dropped Kalashnikov to allow for the rating GF got and they now think the best Kalashnikov can produce at present is 148.

    The system is perfectly fair to my eyes – perhaps inflated with the phil smith regime (juveniles especially) and lenient to those in the 150-160s.

    To be clear Ham i’m 100% agreeing Altior is the better horse, he just hasn’t proved it on form yet.

    #1398264
    jackh1092jackh1092
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2575

    I don’t think he should immediately be moved to the top rated horse in training tbh either. I do think he was amazing and beat very good horses with ease. I’d prefer him to be given a mark slightly below Altior but i can see why on that performance he was going to achieve a very high rating.

    Ham, this wasn’t a freak performance. I think you need to give the horse a little more credit. He has beaten Fox Norton 18.5 Lengths who if you believe RPRs he ran to 165 which was the same as Altior.

    The thing with Altior is, we don’t know his true level. The likes of Sprinter and even Cyrname run with zest and enthusiam, so we know roughly their level. Altior is lazy, needs pushed along and even when he wins by 6 or 7, doesn’t scream “wow”. Even though he probably should!
    Does anyone, even the handicapper think Altior is only a 175 horse? I very much doubt it.

    Twitter: Jackh1092
    Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!

    #1398268
    homersimpson
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2268

    Correct Jack. Altior would probably beat the same horses by the same margin in a handicap giving a stone or more away. Unfortunately it’s not going to happen.

    #1398269
    SteeplechasingSteeplechasing
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5769

    Saying that a horse didn’t run its race can be a reasonable assessment at times, but those whose immediate analysis of a result they didn’t see coming – e.g – Bristol De Mai’s record breaking 2017 Betfair Chase victory – is “nothing ran its race” (that was AP’s immediate assessment followed by a number of pros who should have known much better).

    Set aside the ins and outs and pounds and lengths of each individual’s form and just look at the probability aspect: a full field of classy and consistent horses are prepared by (mostly) top notch trainers to bloom on a particular day; what’s the probability of those horses all being off colour that day minus (mysteriously) just one horse, the winner?

    All horses run their race on the day unless they are amiss. If what people mean by ‘didn’t run its race’ is the ground didn’t suit, or the pace was too fast/too slow or the trip wasn’t just right, then that’s what happens in racing every day. It doesn’t mean a horses didn’t run its race, it means it was not up to the conditions it faced (exactly the same conditions faced by the winner – one was good enough to overcome them, the rest were not).

    Never argue with a fool. He will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience, then onlookers might not be able to tell the difference. https://lazybet.com/

    #1398271
    jackh1092jackh1092
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2575

    It doesn’t mean a horses didn’t run its race, it means it was not up to the conditions it faced (exactly the same conditions faced by the winner – one was good enough to overcome them, the rest were not).

    But horse X might have produced a performance of 170 on good ground over 2m5 as Cheltenham. Horse X might run on soft ground around Sandown and produce a rating of 160. Horses won’t always run the same due to many variables.

    The 2nd and 3rd here don’t have that excuse on this occasion as they’ve performed to a very high level at the course. Buttt, Fox has only returned off a long layoff, and WP hasn’t completed in the guts of a year, so it’s perhaps possible to be slightly sceptical on whether they both have ran right up to their marks.

    Twitter: Jackh1092
    Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!

    #1398275
    homersimpson
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2268

    But did FN improve on his last run in which Altior only beat him 7 lengths, although Altior probably didn’t run to his 175 mark that day either.

    #1398276
    jackh1092jackh1092
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2575

    But did FN improve on his last run in which Altior only beat him 7 lengths, although Altior probably didn’t run to his 175 mark that day either.

    According to RPRs he didn’t improve no. As you say i don’t think Altior was at his best that day either having to lead and jumping to his left…

    Fox ran off 166 on Saturday, so if he did run to that, Cyrname would actually be higher- so he has taken that into consideration.

    Twitter: Jackh1092
    Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!

    #1398278
    homersimpson
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2268

    SC wrote

    what’s the probability of those horses all being off colour that day minus (mysteriously) just one horse, the winner?

    Probably more so when conditions are extreme, which they pretty much were that day. BDM had his ideal conditions at a track where he excels. With hindsight, the second horse Cue Card, was no doubt on the downgrade at the time and other horses had excuses for not running to their marks.

Viewing 15 posts - 46 through 60 (of 64 total)
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