Anyone for a 2019 FLAT Ten To Follow Competition?

[Gingertipster]

It was much simpler scoring system than you’d think, Jac.
Thought TRFers would like having more (their) horses scoring for a place, as well as win. But if TRFers prefer WIN ONLY I’d suggest:

Win in a colts or open Group 1 = 1000
Win in a fillies and mares Group 1 = 800
Win in a colts or open Group 2 = 400
Win in a fillies and mares Group 2 = 320
Win in a colts or open Group 3 = 200
Win in a fillies and mares Group 3 = 160

When working races restricted to females out to the same scoring as colts and open races in previous years, females totally dominated. They’re less competitive races – easier to win and therefore much easier to run up a sequence. Working them out to 80% of males and open races was much fairer. Females winning open races are scored the same as males. (Bonus points for SP’s are calculated the same for all horses/races).

Think it’s also important for Group 1’s to score highly. If doing 100 75 and 50 as you suggest, two Group 2 wins would be scoring one and a half times as much as 1 Group 1 victory… And are two Group 3’s (2 X 50) worth the same as 1 Group 1 (100)? imo Doesn’t reward excellence enough. Scoring 1000, 400, 200 obviously means 1 Group 1 victory is worth two Group 2’s plus a Group 3.

Do think it’s important to have bonus points for odds, but if not doing X 20 win X 3 second and x 2 thirds – as my original plan… May be keep it to X 10 for the WIN (to the nearest whole number) for ease of calculation? So a 2/1 winner gets an extra 20 points, 85/40 gets 21 etc? Need to keep the 1000 instead of 100 for a Group 1 win, because if only 100 then a 100/1 winner (10 X 100) scores 10 times a Group 1 win. Otherwise one 100/1 winner could easily win someone the competition with very little else . Where as winning the same as a Group 1 victory for a 100/1 winner seems fairer to me… However, my preference is for X 20. So a 2/1 winner scores 40, 85/40 42, 5/1 100 (same as a Group 3 second) 10/1 200 (same as a Group 3 win). 50/1 same as a Group 1 and 100/1 getting twice what a Group 1 receives.

Can see reserves working if a trainer states before the competition starts it’s injured and won’t run in 2019. But are you suggesting if a horse gets injured during the season it’s replaced? How does that work? How injured does a horse have to be and who needs to say it’s injured? What if an injured (replaced) horse returns at the end of the season and wins an important race? Does it go back in to the 10 and the reserve comes out? Or are you meaning a certain time where reserves can be added? eg I believe in other Ten To Follow competitions the week of the King George (before Glorious Goodwood) has been used for reserves (and those to be replaced) are nominated.

Personally I don’t like the idea of a “nap”. Allowing for some TRFers to have an advantage over others; one scoring double is effectively some having an eleventh selection (one horse scoring twice) and others only ten (their nominated nap scoring zero). imo Bringing a lot more luck in to it/less skill.

Thanks for the suggestions Jac, having WIN ONLY would certainly cut down on time scoring.

Value Is Everything

[Triptych]

I’m all for the win only competition and the terms that you set out above would be perfect, mine was just a suggestion up for consideration and probably a bit over simplified. Maths was my worst subject at school.

As you say, win only would make scoring so much easier and less time consuming and you could put that up for a vote. I’m happy either way as long as I’m not scoring..

In the case of Reserves, maybe only 2 or if no reserves allowed maybe at some point in the season have a swap in/out option of 2 of your 10 horses as in Vtc’s competition.,and I still think a Nap or Star horse would make it more intersting.

I hope this goes ahead Ginger and good luck getting it up and running. Can’t wait to start sorting out my my 10 flat horses ….Jac

Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...

[Tonge]

I’d really prefer to get points for a place (at least in the big races). I won’t be the one scoring though and appreciate it makes it much more complicated so happy to go with whatever’s decided. Either way, count me in!

[Nathan Hughes]

Sounds great Ginge, I’m up for competing….
I’m happy for place points but will go with win only if that’s easier
Was thinking Lightning Spear never wins so would included him if places were included likewise Beat the Bank or maybe not
If everyone marks their own it should be easy enough and if you keep a record of points won for horses I’m sure we can spot mistakes made

Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026

[Middle_Of_March]

I don’t have much to add to this other than to say it sounds good and I’d be up for it Ginge.

[Istabraq]

Sounds good

could also give bonus points for winners based on if your pick beats the SP odds – E.g. If you picked one at 9/1 and SP was 5/1, you increased winning chance from 10% to 16%, so could give bonus points of 6

might over complicate it though

[Gingertipster]

I’d really prefer to get points for a place (at least in the big races).

That’s a good compromise, Tonge.

Scoring:
Great Britain, Ireland and France:
Group 1
Colts & Open races: 1st 1000, 2nd 400, 3rd 200
Fillies & Mares races 1st 800, 2nd 320, 3rd 160
Group 2
Colts & Open races : 1st 400
Fillies & Mares races 1st 320
Group 3
Colts & Open races : 1st 200
Fillies & Mares races 1st 160

Value Is Everything

[Gingertipster]

Bonus Points are based on:
Price X 20 = win bonus (or an alternative of X25 for win with the same placed scores)
Price X 5 = second
Price X 2.5 = third (second halved)
Figures are rounded up or down, with any “.5 scores rounded up for second and rounded down for thirds.
Only Group 1’s get PLACE
Bonus Points:
Price…………1st…….2nd……3rd…….Alternative 1st score
1\22………….1………0………0……..1
1\20………….1………0………0……..2
1\18………….1………0………0……..2
1\16………….1………0………0……..2
1\14………….1………0………0……..2
1\13………….2………0………0……..2
1\12………….2………0………0……..2
1\11………….2………0………0……..2
1\10………….2………1………0……..3
1\9…………..2………1………0……..3
2\17………….2………1………0……..3
1\8…………..3………1………0……..3
2\15………….3………1………0……..3
1\7…………..3………1………0……..4
2\13………….3………1………0……..4
1\6…………..3………1………0……..4
2\11………….4………1………0……..5
1\5…………..4………1………0……..5
2\9…………..5………1………0……..6
1\4…………..5………1………0……..6
2\7…………..6………1………0……..7
30\100…….6………2………1……..8
1\3…………..7………2………1……..8
4\11………….7………2………1……..9
2\5…………..8………2………1…….10
4\9…………..9………2………1…….11
40\85…………9………2………1…….12
1\2………….10………3………1…….12
8\15…………11………3………1…….13
4\7………….12………3………1…….14
8\13…………13………3………1…….15
4\6………….14………3………1…….17
8\11…………15………4………2…….18
4\5………….16………4………2…….20
5\6………….17………4………2…….21
10\11………..18………5………2…….23
20\21………..19………5………2…….24
Evens………..20………5………2…….25
21\20………..21………5………2…….26
11\10………..22………6………3…….28
6\5………….24………6………3…….30
5\4………….26………6………3…….31
11\8…………28………7………3…….34
6\4………….30………8………4…….38
13\8…………33………8………4…….41
7\4………….35………9………4…….44
15\8…………38………9………4…….47
2\1………….40……..10………5…….50
85\40………..43……..11………5…….53
9\4………….45……..12………6…….56
5\2………….50……..13………6…….63
11\4…………55……..14………7…….69
3\1………….60……..15………7…….75
100\30……….67……..17………8…….83
7\2………….70……..18………9…….88
4\1………….80……..20……..10……100
9\2………….90……..23……..11……113
5\1…………100……..25……..12……125
11\2………..110……..28……..14……138
6\1…………120……..30……..15……150
13\2………..130……..33……..16……163
7\1…………140……..35……..17……175
15\2………..150……..38……..19……183
8\1…………160……..40……..20……200
17\2………..170……..43……..21……213
9\1…………180……..45……..22……225
10\1………..200……..50……..25……250
11\1………..220……..55……..27……275
12\1………..240……..60……..30……300
13\1………..260……..65……..32……325
14\1………..280……..70……..35……350
15\1………..300……..75……..37……375
16\1………..320……..80……..40……400
18\1………..360……..90……..45……450
20\1………..400…….100……..50……500
22\1………..440…….110……..55……550
25\1………..500…….125……..62……625
28\1………..560…….140……..70……700
33\1………..660…….165……..82……825
40\1………..800…….200…….100…..1000
50\1……….1000…….250…….125…..1250
66\1……….1320…….330…….165…..1650
80\1……….1600…….400…….200…..2000
100\1+……..2000…….500…….250…..2500

So if the 6/4 favourite wins the 2000 Guineas, he gest 1000 points for winning a colts Group 1 and 30 for winning @ 6/4 SP = 1000 + 30 = 1030
If a 25/1 shot finishes second it gets 400 for second in a colts Group 1 and 125 for a second place @ 25/1 = 400 + 125 = 525
If a 10/1 shot is third it gets 200 for third in a colts Group 1 and 25 for a third place @ 10/1 = 200 + 25 = 225

For the alternative X25 win score the 2000 Guineas winner would get 1038 (not 1030).
A 10/1 Guineas winner” X25 would score 250 instead of 200 under X20.

Value Is Everything

[Gingertipster]

Yes, hopefully that will be the case Nathan.
I’ll produce a list of horses with points, highest to lowest at any particular time. Then most people can hopefully score their own lists by copy and pasting.
May be not a full list, but will also do a run down of the top 5 or 10 TRFers (depending on how many take part).

Value Is Everything

[raymo61]

The flat is certainly more my forte Ginge and would love a go at this but like already mentioned would prefer to get points for places on Group races but will go with the flow and the majority!

[Gingertipster]

Maybe include 2nd place for Group 2’s, Raymo? So the least scored in all three Groups is 200 (or for Fillies & Mares 160).

Scoring:
Great Britain, Ireland and France:
Group 1
Colts & Open races: 1st 1000, 2nd 400, 3rd 200
Fillies & Mares races 1st 800, 2nd 320, 3rd 160
Group 2
Colts & Open races : 1st 400, 2nd 200
Fillies & Mares races 1st 320, 2nd 160
Group 3
Colts & Open races : 1st 200
Fillies & Mares races 1st 160

Something like the above?

Value Is Everything

[Gingertipster]

..1st X25.Price.X20.1st.2nd.3rd.Alternative X30 1st 2nd and 3rd score
…1..1\22……..1…..0…..0….or…..1…..0…..0
…1..1\20……..1…..0…..0….or…..2…..0…..0
…1..1\18……..1…..0…..0….or…..2…..0…..0
…2..1\16……..1…..0…..0….or…..2…..0…..0
…2..1\14……..1…..0…..0….or…..2…..0…..0
…2..1\13……..2…..0…..0….or…..2…..0…..0
…2..1\12……..2…..0…..0….or…..2…..0…..0
…2..1\11……..2…..0…..0….or…..3…..1…..0
…3..1\10……..2…..1…..0….or…..3…..1…..0
…3..1\9………2…..1…..0….or…..3…..1…..0
…3..2\17……..2…..1…..0….or…..4…..1…..0
…3..1\8………3…..1…..0….or…..4…..1…..0
…3..2\15……..3…..1…..0….or…..4…..1…..0
…4..1\7………3…..1…..0….or…..4…..1…..0
…4..2\13……..3…..1…..0….or…..5…..1…..0
…4..1\6………3…..1…..0….or…..5…..1…..0
…5..2\11……..4…..1…..0….or…..5…..1…..0
…5..1\5………4…..1…..0….or…..6…..1…..0
…6..2\9………5…..1…..0….or…..7…..1…..0
…6..1\4………5…..1…..0….or…..8…..2…..1
…7..2\7………6…..1…..0….or…..9…..2…..1
…8..30\100…..6…..2…..1….or…..9…..2…..1
…8..1\3………7…..2…..1….or….10…..2…..1
…9..4\11……..7…..2…..1….or….11…..2…..1
..10..2\5………8…..2…..1….or….12…..2…..1
..11..4\9………9…..2…..1….or….13…..3…..1
..12..40\85……9…..2…..1….or….14…..3…..1
..12..1\2……..10…..3…..1….or….15…..3…..2
..13..8\15……11…..3…..1….or….16…..3…..2
..14..4\7……..12…..3…..1….or….17…..3…..2
..15..8\13……13…..3…..1….or….18…..4…..2
..17..4\6……..14…..3…..1….or….20…..4…..2
..18..8\11……15…..4…..2….or….22…..4…..2
..20..4\5……..16…..4…..2….or….24…..5…..2
..21..5\6……..17…..4…..2….or….25…..5…..3
..23..10\11…..18…..5…..2….or….27…..5…..3
..24..20\21…..19…..5…..2….or….29…..6…..3
..25..Evens…..20…..5…..2….or….30…..6…..3
..26..21\20…..21…..5…..2….or….32…..6…..3
..28..11\10…..22…..6…..3….or….33…..7…..3
..30..6\5……..24…..6…..3….or….36…..7…..4
..31..5\4……..26…..6…..3….or….38…..8…..4
..34..11\8……28…..7…..3….or….41…..8…..4
..38..6\4……..30…..8…..4….or….45…..9…..4
..41..13\8……33…..8…..4….or….49….10…..5
..44..7\4……..35…..9…..4….or….52….10…..5
..47..15\8……38…..9…..4….or….56….11…..6
..50..2\1……..40….10…..5….or….60….12…..6
..53..85\40….43….11…..5….or….64….13…..7
..56..9\4……..45….12…..6….or….68….14…..7
..63..5\2……..50….13…..6….or….75….15…..8
..69..11\4……55….14…..7….or….83….17…..8
..75..3\1……..60….15…..7….or….90….18…..9
..83..100\30…67….17…..8….or…100….20….10
..88..7\2……..70….18…..9….or…105….21….11
.100..4\1……..80….20….10….or..120….24….12
.113..9\2……..90….23….11….or..135….27….14
.125..5\1…….100….25….12….or..150….30….15
.138..11\2…..110….28….14….or..165….33….17
.150..6\1…….120….30….15….or..180….36….18
.163..13\2…..130….33….16….or..195….39….20
.175..7\1…….140….35….17….or..210….42….21
.183..15\2…..150….38….19….or…225….45….23
.200..8\1…….160….40….20….or…240….48….24
.213..17\2…..170….43….21….or…255….51….26
.225..9\1…….180….45….22….or…270….54….27
.250..10\1…..200….50….25….or…300….60….30
.275..11\1…..220….55….27….or…330….66….33
.300..12\1…..240….60….30….or…360….72….36
.325..13\1…..260….65….32….or…390….78….39
.350..14\1…..280….70….35….or…420….84….42
.375..15\1…..300….75….37….or…450….90….45
.400..16\1…..320….80….40….or…480….96….48
.450..18\1…..360….90….45….or…540…108….54
.500..20\1…..400…100….50….or…600…120….60
.550..22\1…..440…110….55….or…660…132….66
.625..25\1…..500…125….62….or…750…150….75
.700..28\1…..560…140….70….or…840…168….84
.825..33\1…..660…165….82….or…990…198….99
1000..40\1….800…200…100….or..1200..240…120
1250..50\1…1000…250…125….or..1500..300…150
1650..66\1…1320…330…165….or..1980..396…198
2000..80\1…1600…400…200….or..2400..480…240
2500 100\1+.2000…500…250….or..3000..600…300

Three Alternatives above:

X25
The first column is based on ODDS X 25.
4/1 winner 4/1 X 25 = 100 bonus points.
4/1 seconds get 1/5th of the win, worked out @ ODDS X 5 (4/1 X 5 = 20).
Thirds get half of seconds, worked out at ODDS X 2.5 (4/1 X 2.5 = 10). These seconds and thirds are the same as another alternative of ODDS X 20.

X20
4/1 winner 4/1 X 20 = 80 bonus points.
Same 20 and 10 points for seconds and thirds; this time with X 20 using 1/4 of win instead of 1/5th for second.

x30
The third alternative of X30 has its own seconds and thirds totals based on seconds getting 1/5th of win and thirds getting half of seconds.
4/1 winner 4/1 X 30 = 120
Seconds 1/5th works out @ ODDS X 6 so 4/1 X 6 = 24.
Thirds ODDS X 3. ie 4/1 X 3 = 12 bonus points.

So a 4/1 winner gets either 100, 80 or 120 bonus points.
10/1 winner gets either 250, or 200 or 300.
20/1 winner either X25 500, or X20 400 or X30 600.
50/1 winner either 1250, or 1000 or 1500.
100/1+ winner either 2500, or 2000 or 3000.
One of the above figures added to the points for a win in a Group 1, 2 or 3.
Under X30, 4000 points would be won for one 100/1+ Group 1 win.
Under X30 a 100/1 second place in an open/colts Group 1 gets 400 Group points + 600 betting bonus = 1000… Same as the Group 1 winner’s Group points before its betting bonus. Don’t want the Group 1 second to ever pay more than a Group 1 winner; so X30 is the maximum possibility.

EDIT: Also… Should it be possible for a Group 2 or Group 3 winner to score over 3 times as much as a Group 1 winner?
eg Under X30 a 2/1 Group 1 winner scores 1000 Group Points + 60 Betting Bonus Points = 1060; where as a 100/1 Group 2 winner gets 400 Group Points + 3000 Betting Bonus Points = 3400. Diggerence of 2340 to the good of the Group 2 winner…

Therefore:
Should Group 1’s be scored at a higher rate than Group 2 and 3’s? Am leaning towards scoring Bonus Betting Points at: Group 1’s X30, Group 2 X20 and Group 3’s X10. So the 2/1 Group 1 winner gets X30 (as above) 1060… Compared to a X20 100/1 Group 2 winner 400 Group Points + 2000 Betting Bonus Points = 2400. The Group 2 winner still too the good, but now a difference of only 1340. A 100/1 Group 3 winner would get 200 Group Points + 1000 Betting Bonus Points = 1200. Think it is right a 100/1 winner should be rewarded, just a matter of by how much compared to a shorter priced winner in the top (Group 1) grade.

Is it right if Betting Bonus Points are different for each grade? When a 5/1 winner in a Group 3 wins the same pounds as a Group 1. imo It’s just another part of being rewarded for a Group 1 winner (just as Group Points do – which essentially is the whole point of this competition).

I’d be grateful for TRFers opinions on which alternative to go for; X25, X20 or X30? Compare the betting points to Group points and say what you believe is fairest.
Are the points ratios ok?

Value Is Everything

[Gingertipster]

could also give bonus points for winners based on if your pick beats the SP odds – E.g. If you picked one at 9/1 and SP was 5/1, you increased winning chance from 10% to 16%, so could give bonus points of 6

might over complicate it though.

Love the idea for a different competition, Istabraq. Sadly for thee and me don’t think it really works for a 10 To Follow, with everyone picking horses at the same time of year – for future events.

Value Is Everything

[Gingertipster]

In the case of Reserves, maybe only 2 or if no reserves allowed maybe at some point in the season have a swap in/out option of 2 of your 10 horses as in Vtc’s competition.,and I still think a Nap or Star horse would make it more intersting.

Wondered about a rolling start, Jac.
Competition begins/points can be scored from Nell Gwyn day (first British Group race of the season).
All entries must be made at least 30 minutes before your first runner.
Entries allowed up 30 minutes before the first Group race of 2000 Guineas day.
TRFers entering before Guineas day can replace up to 3 horses up to the first Group race of 2000 Guineas. Any points substituted out will be lost.
Any points won/achieved by a horse substituted in will not count towards your totals.
From Guineas day onwards that’s it, no more entries and/or replacements. Unless…

If (only “IF”) a Swap In/Out Option later in the season, maybe in the week before Ascot’s King George VI is the best time for it. Where there’s plenty of races left – of all distances – still to be won.

As said, am personally not keen on the Swap or the nap/star horse myself, Jac. However, if others particularly want/prefer both/either options will consider them?

Value Is Everything

[Gingertipster]

Thanks for your interest John Gooch, Mtoto, BigG, Krypton Factor, Triptych, Tonge, Nathan, Middle Of March and Raymo. Hopefully get some more interest here and more when I’ve finalised rules. Jumps TTF got 60 entrants and if I get half that will be very happy.

Value Is Everything

[Triptych]

Looking forward to it Ginge and happy to go with what the majority of people want.

I’ll hopefully be at Newmarket on Nell Gwyn and Craven Day to cheer my horses on but just a note, in case you didnt know, Newmarket has advised all Members that The Craven Stakes will be run on the Wednesday of the 3 day meeting with The Earl Of Sefton on the Thursday. The Nell Gwyn Stakes will kick of your competition on the Tuesday

I’m happy to keep tabs on my score and post it up as it hopefully progresses, but if you don’t mind I don’t really want to be put on a rota for scoring.
With my Saturday comp to look after and possibly the Godolphin Fantasy League one too I’m already on the missing list in our house for quite a bit of the week. Jac

Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...

[Gingertipster]

That’s fine Jac, didn’t expect you to do any of the scoring. It now seems possible we might not need anyone to “score” if things go right. But best laid plans and all that…

Am planning on getting a run down of every race in the competition before it starts. Then – as I go (and may be others can occasionally do so for a race) – fill in the win and places together with odds and points won in each of those races.

eg
Nell Gwyn Group 3 Fillies
Horse X 10/1 460
Craven Group 3
Horse Y 3/1 290
Earl Of Sefton Group 3
Abernant Group 3
John Porter Group 3
Fred Darling Group 3 Fillies
Greenham Group 3
Gordon Richards Group 3
Sandown Classic Trial Group 3
Sandown Mile Group 2
…With all the Irish and French in between. Or may be – would TRFers prefer three lists, one British, one Irish and one French?
May not get the races in the exact running order, but they can be switched around nearer off times – so shouldn’t matter too much.

I’m happy to do all the scoring of horses – maintaining a current list of all horses with points – in order (with every horse’s current score). Rather than highest to lowest it may be best for alphabetical order; to make it easier for TRFers to – from that list – hopefully score their own 10 To Follow. However, I don’t want scoring their own to put anyone off entering, so it will NOT be a prerequisite of entry. Might take me a while – depending on how many entries – but am sure can get round to score every list if necessary. Just may not be sometimes quite up to date.

Might be nice if from time to time different TRFers could just point out “the next scoring race is ……”.

Value Is Everything

[Author]

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