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Max
It’s pretty hard to take having bet two of Bradleys the other day to be done out of a juicy forecast. Didn’t even back the runner up EW
Actually I can’t quite believe the price of Westwood Dawn, I’m sure it was best price 8 or 9’s this morning. To put the tin hat on it I included The Cube for the tricast which I believe ran 4th. Work permitting I shall have a go at Wolves tonight.620W
I’m taking on the likely favourite Royal Manor who travelled well in front when winning over further LTO with Vanadium whose sole win on the AW was over C&D and if reproducing its run behind Big Sky Brewing should go close. A back to form Kensington could give him most to do.
720W
I’m quite sweet on the chances of Dancing Deano. A good run from Vanadium in the 620 would advertise the Big Sky Brewing form and at adecent price must have an EW shout. Coleorton Dancer who ran OK behind Mister New York would be the danger.
850W
Pelham Crescent for me here, ran over too far LTO but two previous runs were not too bad and again at a decent price is a good EW bet. Bavarica I have as the danger whose last two visits to Wolves haven’t been too bad.
Bang in form, aaron. A 55/1 exacta in the first. I thought at one point the Bradley horse was going to prevent the payout – but the Gods spared you.
I
Three at Wolves tonight.
In the 750 I like Bridge Of Fermoy who ran well for a long way last time after a break. Likes Wolverhampton and any double figure odds should be snapped up.
The 850 I fancy Follow The Flag to go close. Running consistently and should be able to turn around the placings with Princely Hero
The 920 I’m going for Princess Valerina who ran well on its first visit to C&D LTO. Tangerine Trees might give her most to do.
2.10 Southwell. This is going to be a punishing two miler. Scrutinising the back form shows that only Calculating and Victory Quest have ever won over 2m. The latter has solid figures of 135126211314 over the maximum sandpit distance – none of the opposition have even attempted it here and will be in for a shock. I’m tempted to bank this but it is an awfully one paced grinder from a moderate stable and course specialists didn’t have the best of times last week. The topweights are going to struggle in this Somme-style ground and I cannot have the Jay filly or Hayley’s mount who will both really feel it in the last furlong. I might back Mayadeen or Tapaellya who both carry no weight – the latter if she’s a huge price (blinkered first time and ran well two back at Great Leighs over two miles).
2.40 Southwell. This 5f sprint is a typical headscratcher with all nine having some sort of chance. Northern Empire has beaten most of the field at some point, has fallen to a tasty weight and on one piece of York form, is the pick of the weights. I cannot avoid Milton Bradley’s resurgence; The Tatling would carry this lot on his best form and has a very attractive draw.
Bet 2x 2 doubles
4 x ew singles the four bold horses.Best of luck
Max
Had the 2.10 between Victory Quest & Simple Jim with preference for the latter who looks worth trying over the 2M again as he wasn’t stopping LTO over 14F.
In the 2.40 I fancied Luscivious but he is now a non runner.
2.40 Southwell. This 5f sprint is a typical headscratcher with all nine having some sort of chance. Northern Empire has beaten most of the field at some point, has fallen to a tasty weight and on one piece of York form, is the pick of the weights. I cannot avoid Milton Bradley’s resurgence; The Tatling would carry this lot on his best form and has a very attractive draw.
Bet 2x 2 doubles
4 x ew singles the four bold horses.Best of luck
Good call on the 2.40 Max. Did you do the forecast by any chance ?
Thanks Aaron
No, I haven’t done the forecast but I had several mixed doubles with the first two – who ran as their prices suggested.I’m not wildly happy though.
I took 7/1 this morning about The Tatling and 14/1 about Northern Empire. The Tatling went off at an astounding 12/1 and Northern Empire was backed to 9/1.
How can you predict that? Why so short in the morning market for the Bradley horse?
I’ve deleted a bit at the first opportunity I’ve had, because on second and third viewing, the horse I mentioned just didn’t get on with the fibresand and I was talking out of my fat a**e. It was also unfit which may have been the reason for the drift.
What IS going on with the market? Do you take a price or not? It was a lot easier when I was glued to ATR and RUK.
Grrrrrrrrr…bloody betfair. Oh well…
Four for tonight at Kempton.
7.50 Sir Haydn. 10f is too short and 12f is too far. Good record at 13f. Likes Kempton, Class 6 and fields of between 13-15 runners. John Jenkins is in good form. Took 25/1 this morning and seemingly unfancied. This doesn’t bother me from this stable.
8.20 Confucias Don’t like the top two at the prices and Mac Love needs another furlong. Karl Burke’s horse could not have been more impressive two outings ago and is potentially a bit better class than this. Swiss Franc is a huge danger.
In the final two, I’m going for a speculative punt in each on Hammer (because of where he comes from and R Phillips record in flat races) and Tuning Fork (who needs banded class; has won after a break).[/b]
4 races for me at Wolverhampton tonight
650W I saw Moment Of Clarity win on Monday , well I actually saw the last furlong as it was a tad foggy, however won well and no reason why it can’t go in again. Moyoko could be up to running in to a place at a price.
720W I have this between Figaro Flyer and Cayman Fox and I’m just siding with Figaro Flyer to pick up Cayman Fox late on.
850W Pajada ran well on Monday and if reproducing that would go close but its one place in 34 starts is hardly inspiring so I’m going to take a chance on Hi Spec who was running well at Wolverhampton earlier this year. First run for 6 months 9 days ago so hopefullt that will have blown away a few cobwebs and at 16/1 ish early prices is my EW choice.
920W Gallantry ran well in a race over C&D behind Wasp in October and a reproduction of that would give him a great chance. Councellor who finished close behind that day for the forecast.
This is one running at Great leighs on Sunday @ 3.20p.m. It’s called Liberty Beau, trained by David Elsworth with Dane O’Neill aboard.On Page 43 you’ll see that I was all set for it to run a big second race but it was withdrawn. It has since run (Kempton) though happily I was unaware of this because yet again it was placed fifth. However, it ran out of gas upped to 10 furlongs and is now back to one mile which I think is a winnable distance. I’ll be very disappointed if it’s not in the money though I’m not certain how this third different track will suit. Seasons good wishes to everyone.
Oops. Last of seven. Fortunately, chose not to have a bet due to other withdrawals. Watched a replay and though he was well up with the pace approaching the bend the front runners were away and gone and I think Dane just went through the motions before getting sandwiched a furlong out and understandably he gave up the ghost. I’ll give it one more go when it next runs back at Lingfield and especially if it now goes handicapping having got three under its belt.
Wonderful Wolverhampton tonight
In the 7.50 I’m taking a chance on Sands Crooner to overcome a bad draw and score. Running well over C&D recentky and usually is held up so outside draw shouldn’t be so much of a concern. I take Canadian Danehill who also has a bad draw to follow him home
The 8.20 I’m going with Zuwaar who if reproducing its LTO run should win. For the forecast and a small saver I’m risking Daraiym who was not too far behind Zuwaar LTO.
9.20 I’m sticking with A Big Sky Brewing who did me a favour over C&D LTO. Fo the forecast I’m torn between Romantic Verse who is 2 for 2 over C&D and Topenhall who looked worth trying back over this trip LTO
Best of luck all who have a go tonight
Nice winner with Zuwaar, Aaron.
A profitable night.(Wish I was on the inside of that Musson gamble – it’s a stable I follow and am well onside with. One of the biggest of the season, I hear).
Happy New Year.
Ziggy Lee has only been out a couple of times and was run over the minimum distance.
Firstly at Lingfield,where he came 3rd,then at Bath,well down the field.
Back on Polytrack at a distance that will suit better and going that is slightly easier than Lingfield.
This is a prep run,but connections feel a place,if not win,is on the cards.
Might be worth a bit of E/W.
Actually I can’t quite believe the price of Westwood Dawn, I’m sure it was best price 8 or 9’s this morning. To put the tin hat on it I included The Cube for the tricast which I believe ran 4th. Work permitting I shall have a go at Wolves tonight.
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