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One bet today. 3.00 L. Ivory Lace
Another cliff-diving horse for me. Crowley gave this mare far too much to do three back and finally, she gets ideal winter conditions (Polytrack, Class 5, fast pace, big field and – crucially – 7f). Nicely handicapped on old form and a bit better class than this lot if she’s in form. Pieces on, suggesting the Woodman yard are aiming for the Christmas party expenses.
Some bookies I don’t have access too are offering 9/1+, but I’m restricted to the usurers on the high street who offer just 6 and 7.
Best of luck, Ken. Aaron, are you playing tonight?
Max
Have been laid low since Wednesday with first the fluey type thing now the visit to the toilet every 10 minutes thing. What with that and the Racing Post web site I don’t have the will at present.
Sorry to hear that Aaron. Quite a few people I know out of action too. Bloody winter!
Wonderful Wolverhampton again this afternoon so a first and last race double on the cards.
The opener I have between Strike Force and My Mirasol who met over C&D a few runs back with SF coming out on top. I’m going for the same outcome with Strike Force getting up late on. RFC saver
In the last I’m taking Ryedane to lead all the way. Has been running well over 5f and could just last home today. For the forecast and small saver i’m putting in Richlieu who was a fair second over C&D LTO.
At Lingfield in the 3.30 Has To Be Abacus would be an EW opportunity at double figure prices
Southwell. This looks a viciously competitive card. The stayers, the claimer, the nursery and the dash are a quartet spawned in some dark realm of betting madness and need leaving well alone. Some notes on the rest.
(1.00) The first division of the 6f sprint handicap looks between Soba Jones and the badly drawn course specialist Haamasy. The latter is an impressive 01151313 in 6f sprints at Southwell. He’s making his first visit for a while, is now handicapped to win and gets on well with Kev Ghunowa. I just wish the Harris raider was drawn a little lower.
(12.30) Kings Icon gets the poisoned fiver in the lunchtime stayers race for two reasons. One, the gelding owes me from his days with Tregoning and two, Michael Wigham’s real initials are A.W.God. Bedfellow has a much better chance than it looks at first glance.
(3.00) I hope Varinia drifts to a backable price because she could be different gravy to this lot. The other horse I’m going to nibble on is Garry Moss’ Orchestration who has 51137621 credentials at Southwell in November and December.
Better still, the trainer is 203210 in the past month and the Brooklands’ outfit enjoy their winners at Southwell. On the minus side, the horse is drawn somewhere out Newark way and has a dire record fresh. It’s all in the price.
(3.30) The best bet of the day comes in the nightcap. Firstly, eliminate everything drawn higher than eight, which includes the forecast favourite Mrs Bun. This leaves a manageable list of eight horses drawn on the inside.
Ugenius (stall one) is a reluctant type (1-21) and is eleven pounds higher than his last winning mark.
Valentino Swing (two) has never even run here and is in for a big surprise.
Jojesse (three) is an unlikely stayer though I’m loathe to write off any Swinbank animal.
Bahamian Bay (four) (NAP) is the best option so far – 1410 after an extreme break, running at the sandpit on his return. Norton is a booking with intent.
Samurai Warrior (five) has the red hot Evans yard to recommend him, but little else.
Guildenstern (six) has never won two in a row in fiftyseven races.
Northern Chorus (seven) prefers undulating, grassy Catterick.
Kingsmaite (eight) is quite well fancied, yet layers may be very interested to see that he is 4008787 in Class 6, seven furlong handicaps at Southwell.In one of the wider stalls, watch out for Louisiade, who surely can’t win from twelve, but who was punted last time out in the East Midlands as if defeat was a laughable idea. The subsequent disappointing fifth would have hurt the Lincolnshire yard and they’ll want it all back.
Yet it was an optimistic punt. Mr Chapman is a freezing 4 from 213 this bleakest of seasons. But the good news is that when Chapman’s horses do win, they cover losses with big prices. There will be a few coming up in the next three months.
Best of luck..
Good news, folks. Further to my earlier post. Ladbrokes subsequently agreed to a pay-out on my mis-timed dog forecast bet. They’re all heart.
Thought Luke Morris was strong in a finish with Theonebox at Wolverhampton yesterday. It saved my bacon. Is N. Vaughan the trainer connected to Michael Owen? I think both might be running into a bit of form.Max
Southwell looks a doddle today ! As you know I don’t get on too well with Southwell and below will show you why.
12.30 This should be fought out between the main principals Fortunella, Karmest & Man Of Gwent. Preference is for Fortunella who if reproducing its LTO run should win
1.00 Can’t see past Irish Pearl here. I don’t think it will be inconvenienced by drop in trip and should win nicely. Garlogs would be the alternative.
1.30 I have a fancy for a couple of Bradleys today and Tadlil could sneak in at a decent price based on its C&D second a couple of runs back. Double Carpet at a price for the F/C
2.30 Victory Quest should take it up 2 furlongs from home and hang on for victory at a decent price
3.00 Bradleys Mister Incredible should take this if reproducing its LTO run
3.30 Have this between Ugenius, Mrs Bun & Jojesse. Like the sucker I am I’m giving Ugenius another chance.
There you go a nice six timer to pay for Christmas.
Nice one with Ugenius, Aaron
Yet another shocking day for me. You can take over as sandpit correspondent too.
A sleek looking black geezer in our local Ladbrokes had the second, third and fourth in the race won by the er, Barron "improver".
His firmly expressed opinions on the often unpredictable nature of British horse racing were worth recording and studying by the BHA – following translation from street to Eton of course.
Thanks Max
Not bad for me at Southwell today, a decent winner and going into Betting Shop punditry mode two combination forecasts as well ! I see its Southwell again tomorrow so will have another bash and Kempton in the evening. Kempton is still a mystery to me for some reason but if I can be patient with the RP site I might take a peek. I can see a twelve horse accumulator coming up
Fifteen races tomorrow, Aaron – plus the bucking buckaroos!
Like Aqueduct, there appears to be a Golden Highway on the far rail at Southwell and draws 1,2,3 look favoured. Trouble is, there are several options in those traps throughout another trappy card; the best of those options appears to be Crocodile Bay (1400) but this can be a total thief.
At three, the dogs round here are barking Cool Sands, but I’d rather back the Bailey horse, Imprimis Tagula whose sandpit stats are 1102. That unplaced effort was in possibly the best Class 4 race run at the Rolleston track this season.
For the patent, I’ve got to have Ms Liddiard’s Ten Spot (NAP) in the lucky last. Won off a six pound lower mark on Valentines Day this year and won in the style of a very good animal. Ignore the last few horrible runs – the horse needed a break, completely dislikes turf and the Liddiard stable have never framed sexy unbeaten sequences over the mantlepiece.
Fenton is the Liddiard "Go-To" jockey and the horse is 31 from two runs at the sandpit. A recent run will put her spot on for this and she’s nice and comfy in stall four.
For the Lucky 15 tomorrow, I’m backing Sir Haydn in the Kempton nightcap though the Evans horse bothers me bigtime.
Best of luck!
Didn’t manage to look at Southwell so its only Kempton for me tonight and to be honest its not very inspiring.
The ones to stay clear of are
620 Risque Heights would normally be the one for me but he’s become a little disappointing so I’m chancing Valdan to come out on top tonight. Two decentish runs over the course recently are as good as anything on show for me. Good Effect should be in there too but would prefer further so may be done for a bit of toe.
650 Desert Opal won well LTO over C&D and should be thereabouts however I’m plumping for Woodcote who is back to a mark he won over C&D in August. George Baker is back on board again. Musical Script has been improving recently and might take the tricast spot.
920 Its all the esses in the lucky last. Shouldntbethere has been running OK over C&D recently and should go close though I haven’t heard of the jockey before and his record doesn’t look that smart. Silver Surprise has the lovely Hayley Turner on top and previous to his stinker LTO had run OK over C&D. And lastly its Sir Haydn and Darryl Holland who if on form would go very close to taking this. I can’t make up my mind which to go for so it will be combination forecasts and tricast on this one.
In good form Aaron! A CSF on the first race.
Well done!Unfortunately downhill all the way after that ! Great Leighs tonight and I have to admit I’ve very rarely had a go there but I might take a look at some time this afternoon. Wolves to save the day tomorrow, Saturday and Monday when with a bit of luck I shall be gracing Dunstall Park with my presence.
Picks only for Great Leighs as work called this afternoon (mostly)
620 Sazerac
650 Elkhart Lake Alt: Eleanor Louise
750 Turban Heights Alt: Clear Reef
850 Epic Odyssey Alt: Temple Of Thebes
920 Vine Street Alt: Resplendent AceThe other horse I’m going to nibble on is Garry Moss’ Orchestration who has 51137621 credentials at Southwell in November and December.
Better still, the trainer is 203210 in the past month and the Brooklands’ outfit enjoy their winners at Southwell. On the minus side, the horse is drawn somewhere out Newark way and has a dire record fresh. It’s all in the price.
Orchestration (NAP) runs again tomorrow in the 11.50. This time, he’s drawn one and is over 5f (his optimum distance). He has won after a 1-3 day break and looked to need the run on Tuesday (though led for a long way). He’s currently 50/1 on a leading betting exchange. I dont like the grade (6), but banded races are sadly few and far between and the one box is worth a few pounds at the sandpit. Later, The Cube should do better in handicap company in division 2 of this sprint after a two day break. An E/W double and a couple of each ways might pay a few quid – and boy, am I due a good winner.
Best of luck.
The other horse I’m going to nibble on is Garry Moss’ Orchestration who has 51137621 credentials at Southwell in November and December.
Better still, the trainer is 203210 in the past month and the Brooklands’ outfit enjoy their winners at Southwell. On the minus side, the horse is drawn somewhere out Newark way and has a dire record fresh. It’s all in the price.
Orchestration (NAP) runs again tomorrow in the 11.50. This time, he’s drawn one and is over 5f (his optimum distance). He has won after a 1-3 day break and looked to need the run on Tuesday (though led for a long way). He’s currently 50/1 on a leading betting exchange. I dont like the grade (6), but banded races are sadly few and far between and the one box is worth a few pounds at the sandpit. Later, The Cube should do better in handicap company in division 2 of this sprint after a two day break. An E/W double and a couple of each ways might pay a few quid – and boy, am I due a good winner.
Best of luck.
Max
Good luck with those pair. I can’t see past Spic N Span in the opener even from stall 14. The Cube I would give an EW shout to but preference is for Westwood Dawn and Jilly Why.
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