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Picked out three races at Lingfield this afternoon.
1220 I can’t see past the two market leaders here. Cool Art is two from two at Lingfield and a reproduction of its last run over C&D should see him take this. I have Our Day Will Come to follow home in second. Decent run over C&D in October should be good enough for second spot.
1250 I’m going for Kames Park here, hoping he is fit enough after his nigh on 5 month break. Beaten three lengths in a race where the course record was broken in February and anywhere near that form should collect today. For the forecast I’m chancing one that isn’t well in at the weights but based on its last two runs at Lingfield might just improve for the step up in trip and that is Tenement.
305L I’m going for Halcion Chancer here whose wins have all been on the AW at Lingfield. Good run over C&D in September and proved his well being by leading to the furlong marker over 7F last time in a quickish race, the winner of which ran well next time out. For the forecast I’m torn between Internationaldebut and Buxton. Internationaldebut won nicely over 7F last time out and is reasonably adaptable as to how he runs. Buxton finished behind that day but is a dual C&D winner who seems to enjoy a strongly run 6F which he should get today.
Good to see this thead back up on running. Some old favs in here glancing at the whole thread. Will try to add a bit where I can!
Two horses I’ve been waiting to reappear are entered this week. One is entered to run on the 3rd and the other on the 5th. Both finished with plenty in hand. I’ll name them on the morning of their races and if you then look at the ATR race replays you’ll understand my confidence. Meanwhile, avoid odds-on favourites on Mondays. Surveys show that, given the choice, most horses would prefer to have a lie-in on Mondays.
Pretty useless recently so here’s hoping my favourite A/W track brings a change of fortune.
2.40 I’m not sure the likely favourite Singleb is suited to Wolves as its two previous runs have been disappointing, albeit its second lifetime start and a run over 12F. The two I like are Lytton and Valentino Swing. Lytton although not running to his mark LTO at least showed a little more and the overall time wasn’t too bad. Valentino Swing hasn’t been running too well recently but a reproduction of its 1L second over C&D in September would give it every chance. I just favour Valentino Swing at around 10 or 12/1.
340 I have this between Master At Arms and Bank On Benny. Master At Arms has a good course record including a win over the distance and surely must be in the shake up. Bank On Benny also has a C&D win to its name recently but I still have a nagging doubt over stamina in a truely run race. A slow pace and he would go very close indeed. Preference though is for Master At Arms. A RFC saver with BOB just in case.
440 I am keen on Metal Guru here. A tad unlucky the last time he faced C&D, if Callan can steer a clear course I think he may win a shade cosily. 10/1 EW is the bet of the day for me today.
Nice to see you back, DJ and welcome to the thread Ken,
Best of luck with these, Aaron, particularly the latter. Looks a plot.
Quick run-through of the contestants here, in a race which might be quite interesting from a betting perspective…
Bailieborough – just doesn’t look like an all-weather horse
Climate – hasn’t returned in anything like the form shown earlier in the year
Eternal Optimist – step up in trip looks ideal and penultimate effort very encouraging
Jayarbee – shown little in 3 starts, with only promise on only turf effort
Jonquille – looks poor and nothing to suggest this trip will be to her advantage
King Of Connacht – weaker effort last time but that was in a better race; distance and surface look ideal
Lady Aspen – off for over a year, but connections presumably very keen to get a win out of her; ran well only start here; risky but a big price and yard doing well enough
Landikhaya – weak form when 3rd last time, but might come on for that; tendency to finish weakly doesn’t bode well though
Moyoko – has decent enough form and a CD win; might be best fresh and short enough but hard to ignore for decent apprentice
Noah Jameel – slightly disappointing and inconsistent and may need this after 12+ weeks off; never tried here and might get behind and find this plenty sharp enough
Red Current – moody mare who has managed just one place from six course efforts, including a very poor run here last time
This One’s For Pat – quite popular in early trading but no real sign that this big step up in trip will be especially beneficial and might prove hard to settle
Timewatch – unexposed and actually ran ok last time on first start for a year; trip should suit and might just run surprisingly well at a big price
Selection
ETERNAL OPTIMIST
KING OF CONNACHT
LADY ASPEN
MOYOKO
TIMEWATCH20 x 30p Exacta Comb
60 x 10p Tricast Comb[/color:1jy45ywu]Some good tipping there, Aaron. A 6/1 winner and an unlucky 2nd. Back in form at your top track!
I thought Noah Jameel could be a horse to pay for Christmas if Newcombe brings him out at Kempton over 1m 3f, maybe even Southwell. Another horse I noticed was Raise All In for Noel Wilson who was punted as if defeat was an impossibility (14/1 – 5/1) but didn’t stay a yard over 7f after travelling nicely and may just have needed the run too.
I’ve tried to suss something for the sandpit tomorrow, but it’s just too difficult – one of the toughest cards I have ever tried to interpret. I’m as cold as a slapper’s heart too, so I’ll give it all a miss.
Welcome back, NV!
Thanks Max, I love good old Wolverhampton, something I wouldn’t have dreamed of saying five years ago. I would have a look at Lingfield and Southwell today but the new RP site has driven me mad after 10 minutes and I’ve given it up as a bad job. I hope they sort out the speed of looking at the horses form soon otherwise I’m either going to have to find another site or just not bother at all which will be a shame as I do enjoy the occasional flutter.
Earlier than planned, here’s the first of the two running this week:-
INTERACTIVE – Kempton 8.50 – Wednesday 3rd December
Was finishing like a train over a furlong less last time and came round the bend at Lingfield some six horses wide. Unfortunately, he doesn’t seem to run quite so well at Kempton but he’s certainly got a chance of reversing form with Forest Dane who seemed to be running out of steam having been in a more favourable position. My evening paper shows Forest as 4/1 favourite with Interactive a miserly 7/1. The ATR race replay might help you form your own opinion.
CheersHold all bets. Sorry, misread the distance. Running over six furlongs as per last race. Therefore unless he’s up with the leaders from mid-way I think the post will come too soon, again. Alternative, might be an each way saver bet on Hayley’s mount at a decent price.
Well, so much for my tipping prowess – I’m just glad I managed to avoid too much egg on face by expressing doubts about Interactive. Seems that Hayley wasn’t too far away from the places on Gwilym but all the same I’ll go to the back of the class and put my dunces hat on.
There’s a post-script to this story though. I called into the bookies this evening just to see what the early price on Interactive was but decided against having a bet. Was about to walk out when I saw the Belle Vue 5.47 dog race was about to go off; had a quick look at the form and decided to throw a fiver on 6-5 forecast. Romped in and paid £20.42 X 5 =£102. Went to the counter to collect, only to discover that I’d mistakenly written the time and meeting as 5.48 Trapton due to the two screens being together. Manager unable to pay out. Oh well, it’s just another bad day at the office.
Bye for nowUnlucky with that, Ken! Better luck next time…
I’m looking forward to Great Leighs tomorrow night and I’ll bet Jim Crowley is too. All four of his mounts have genuine each way chances. He has two for Jim Gallagher, one for John Jenkins and one for Ben Pollock and I’ll be indulging in a Lucky 15 plus some singles.
18.20 Blackwater Fort. Visored first time, top weighted sprinter in a nursery. As good a system as any. Placed twice and a big price on the advance forecast. Crowley is Gallagher’s “go-to” jockey and the south coast maestro was up for this juveniles’ best run (a 2nd at Folkestone).
19.50 Moon Mix. (Nap) Look carefully at this one’s form: this ex-Irish imports best form has always been at extreme distances on polytrack.
He’s now 10lb lower than last years unlucky second to Jack Rolfe at Kempton. That race was preceded by an abortive trip over hurdles. Last month, Jenkins’ horse had a similar outing at Leicester, only much more promising. It’s clear that Moon Mix is not suited to the stop-start aspect of British turf racing and coming back to the polytrack is a bonus. Some of the 3-y-o’s in this race may not stay and Moon Mix definitely will.
Definite place chance and Crowley had a winner for this yard, at this track, last week.
20.20 Feast on the form of Miss Hollybell (NB) in this year’s magnificent Windsor Castle. You could look at this form page for ages. Has there been a better Windsor Castle? The race contains the Breeders Cup Juvenile winner, the Middle Park Winner and the Tote Gold Trophy winner: in fact, it’s a root race which defines the two-year-old season of 2008. Gallagher’s filly was in and around these horses in that race and could bolt up here.
21.20 I don’t know anything about this horse but some of All In The Red’s form, on paper, gives it a solid chance. One visit to Great Leighs and one win and a runner up spot at Kempton too. Yet, this is the weakest of the selections by some way but the old boy has to go in for the sake of synergy and harmony.
Best of luck whatever you back.
Cheers
Max
Another night for favourites on the AW. I can scarcely have a tenner bet without a race I’m involved in being won by the jolly.
The first one was punted but ran shockingly. I thought Moon Mix was going to figure (after coming with a promising run when the pace quickened, but Crowley saved it for another day (or something), allowing the grey to coast in without turning a hair.
This is the third time I’ve napped this animal this year. No, don’t check – it’s true! I am absolutely convinced there is a big priced win in this animal. Totally so.
Max: Not sure the visor helped with Blackwater. Probably always going to be difficult given his poor start and subsequent position. One to swerve next time, perhaps? As for Moon Max. Belied his starting price of 40/1 and ran quite well, looking in with a shout rounding the bend. One to keep an eye on.
Now for the second of my horses that I’ve been waiting to reappear. It’s called Liberty Beau and runs in the 1.15 p.m. at Lingfield tomorrow. My notes on it first run read – Started slowly, finished like a train. It’s my NAP of the month. Good ATR replay of its last race.
Warning: Backing Ken’s tips can seriously damage your wealth.One bet today. 3.00 L. Ivory Lace
Another cliff-diving horse for me. Crowley gave this mare far too much to do three back and finally, she gets ideal winter conditions (Polytrack, Class 5, fast pace, big field and – crucially – 7f). Nicely handicapped on old form and a bit better class than this lot if she’s in form. Pieces on, suggesting the Woodman yard are aiming for the Christmas party expenses.
Some bookies I don’t have access too are offering 9/1+, but I’m restricted to the usurers on the high street who offer just 6 and 7.
Best of luck, Ken. Aaron, are you playing tonight?
Well, well, well. Connections of Liberty Beau must have got wind of my tip for their horse and the potential size of my punt. Scared them off, no doubt.
At least it’s good to tip one that doesn’t lose, albeit a non-runner. I’d probably save a few bob if I just stuck to backing non-runners.
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