- This topic has 1,252 replies, 73 voices, and was last updated 14 years, 3 months ago by
.
- Posts
mmm, Councellor seemed to run more or less as it did FTO and found zilch at the business end, thought it would have run better than last place :o
<br>well done with the earlier selections guys
(Edited by empty wallet at 5:41 pm on Jan. 20, 2007)
Well done to Red Spell backers – good work.
I’m afraid I backed Bonus late on in the second race.
Wish I’d read this thread instead of backing Kindlelight Debut :(. I wouldn’t of liked to of called that photo that Qadar won either, I’m glad he did win, but was convinced he had lost!:o
Fab trifecta/tricast Slippery. Very well done indeed. Shame there isn’t a quinella over here!
Hope the head is ok! ;)
the tricast paid £828.84 :o <br>only had a 50p per line, but the return ensured another sore head this morning.. :(
Hey toad – in my disappointment I’m ashamed to say I overlooked your trifecta.
Great stuff!
Was wondering about the 2:35 race at Wolverhampton. Judging by previous results on this thread I am in the right place! Does anyone give Tobago Reef a chance?
There are three factors which put me off Tobago Reef, FSL.
a) 8lb higher than the first of his wins. Every pound seems to count at Wolver.
b) First time in a Cls 4. Again, imo Class is important on the AW.
c) Most importantly, the presence of Sir Bloody’s Tilapia will almost certainly mean that Tobago will not get an easy lead. This scenario may set it up for something like the well handicapped 7f horse Copper King, who is drawn to track the pace and is 21 at Wolverhampton.
Cheers
Max
Yes my worry was it might not get the lead early on. I’ll have another look at the race. Did you get my PM Max? (I don’t blame you if you deleted it when you saw the title!)
Tues 23/1/07<br>Southwell 3:40 7f – pontins.com Handicap (Class 2)
I’ve seen this before.. mug punter analyses race and determines favourite is taking a major step up in class and way above his ability. Trainer knows better and horse dually obliges, mug punter left with egg on face (Atlantic Story, Wolv 19th Jan)
California Laws displays all the attributes of a legitimate favourite. David Barron knows his onions at Southwell so I’m guessing he feels California Laws is way in front of the handicapper so the hike in class shouldn’t inconvenience.
However this mug punter cannot get away from the form of Waterside. He may have been flattered by the race conditions but he comes from a key race ran over an inadequate trip where horses placed in front and behind ran 1st (Qadar) and 2nd (Party Boss) at Lingfield last Saturday. The pace in this race suggests that he’ll dominate and make the running on his own, the question will he have the stamina to hold on from a wide post position?
Gut feel tells me to leave this race alone but I’ll await the opinions of the TRF massive! :biggrin:
(Edited by slipperytoad at 11:39 pm on Jan. 22, 2007)
Southwell 3:40  Addendum
Had chance to sleep on my musings and knocked up a tissue to assist me in my decision
9/4 California Laws, 4/1 Waterside, 5/1 Wessex, 6/1 Jimmy The Guesser, Prince Tum Tum
The jolly still looks solid, and the price for Wessex looks massive. Replaying one or two pace scenarios in my head last night suggests that Waterside will set things up for prominent ridden horses drawn low. Still looks like a no play race but will monitor the market to see if California Laws drifts to a working mans price or market confidence in Wessex..
The punter in me says lay California Laws at current odds for the reasons you’ve stated Slipperytoad
I’d be interested in Prince Tum Tum if he were a bigger price, it surprises me a little he’s not been tried on this surface before being by Capote, he has run on Dirt before at Nad Al Sheba, where he finished 2nd last, but that could have been a warm up for his turf run next time where he finished 2nd and i’ve an inkling he could go well here
Waterside could nick it from the front and on jockey bookings you’d tend to think he’s the more fancied one of the Nigel Shields runners, but i’m gonna forgive Wessex his last run and back him on his 6L 2nd to Gentlemans Deal ( who would win a Pattern race on this surface if there were any) he was not given an hard time that day by Mongan and imo is the horse they have to beat if back that form
<br>
(Edited by empty wallet at 8:25 am on Jan. 23, 2007)
Sing up to (it’s free)
and a free preview on this race by the boys at Sleepy Hollow is available
Wessex sweeping the forum off its feet!
Southwell 3:40<br>California Laws 9/4<br>Wessex 11/2<br>Waterside 11/2<br>Prince Tum Tum 7/1<br>Byron bay 10/1<br>Jimmy the Guesser 14/1<br>Pawan 25/1
California Laws wouldn’t have to be that good to beat these, but it’s still a step up. The price that stands out is Wessex, presumably because Callan has chosen Waterside. Given his record for placing at Southwell and the shape of the race, an ew bet seems in order. I missed the 8s but 15/2 will do.
<br>Wessex 3pts ew at 15/2
Consensus selection on Wessex then.. I’m in too, but on the nose.. :biggrin:
3:40 Southwell
Obviously much discussion has already taken place. I agree with the caution over Prince Tum Tum who looks far too short with no track experience.
Also rejected for me are Marko Jadeo (also no surface form), Byron Bay (out of form, high in the handicap), Night Prospector (unlikely to stay), and Jimmy The Guesser (has resented headgear both times since it was first used).
This leaves four. California Laws is improving and has outstanding claims but looks a bit weak in the market to be totally confident about. The Shields pair, Wessex and Waterside make plenty of appeal being proven under these conditions, and bloody Pawan is both impossible to back happily or ignore totally, as ever.
<br>Recommendation
At the risk of being stupidly optimistic, I will stick with my shortlist of four and take a chance that today is one of Pawan’s going days.
PAWAN as a banker in reversed exactas with {Wessex, Waterside, California Laws}  =  6 x £1
PAWAN as a banker in combination tricasts with {Wessex, Waterside, California Laws}  =  18 x 20p
(Edited by non vintage at 12:36 pm on Jan. 23, 2007)
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.