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Agree with your comments about Pawan NV. Based on the performance of his last race, had him pegged as banker material for a 5f race on fibresand after overcoming a draw and pace bias to come 4th. Then he turns up in a 7f race which he hasn’t run for ages. Do we … … don’t we  …  … This horse is a bloody enigma.. :angry:
One for boys at Sleepy Hollow and jockey bookings were correct with Wessex most disappointing, Tum Tum ran sound enough, but 7f on Fibresand probably just beyond him and a drop to 6f on this surface would be of interest imo
Does anyone have stats to hand as to how Nigel Shield’s second strings perform?? Might be something to salvage from the day!
I’ve not got any info tooting, but it would be interesting to know how they measure up
Enjoyable analyses lads.
Been down to the sandpit.
Just fyi, there was really decent money for Barron’s horse down there today and most people seemed to be on it. I wish I was more flexible with my betting as I would have taken the stand out 13/8, like half the crowd queueing up with wedges in hand.
After the race, Neil Callan said to Moore’s rep in the winners enclosure that they went a 6f gallop and that Waterside was outpaced. They were happy with the outcome and expect better next time.
Judging by the glum faces of the gaggle of owners in fourth spot, much better was expected of Prince Tum Tum. Can’t comment on Wessex as I didn’t see Paul Blockley anywhere. Well below form, but being charitable, maybe the fast pace didn’t suit.
Pawan was nibbled at but was definitely unsuited by the flat out gallop. Horribly handicapped too. I can’t see how, on the figures, this one can win a race any time soon, even over 5 or 6 and with a proper stable.
Good luck tomorrow. Max.
Betting on amateur riders is usually one footstep away from the Gates of Hell, but tomorrow I plan to bet not only on an amateur rider, but a 5lb claiming lass I’ve never heard of, riding Quality Street in the last at leafy Lingfield, (4.20)
A genuine Class 5 performer running in a Class 6 for the first time since it’s winning debut, the horse was only just beaten by a determined R Hughes finish on a hot favourite last time out. She likes this CD too, (3-3-2 from 3 runs).
A game front runner, arguably improving, who once gave Celtic Mill a race for 4 furlongs in a Class 3, and with good speed ratings too.
She’s in form and is an excellent price enabling the cautious to bet each way. (The EW is probably a sensible play as she can look a non-stayer, but I’m too deep in the comedy hole this month to play that game).
As for the pilot, Miss Lilley could get an easy lead on this relatively simple ride, (important for an amateur).
The opposition are moribund sand troopers operating at around their right grade. I’d look at fellow frontrunner George the Second, but my horse is much better drawn  and should steal a couple of lengths. And if the forecast favourite doesn’t lead, it can sulk.
Anyway, once again, good luck whatever you fancy.;)
As stated by Tooting, let’s see if we can salvage something from the wreckage that was the 3:40 at Southwell :angry:
With hindsight Waterside ran against a well handicapped rival and did well to come second from a wide post position..
I tend to ignore Conditions form in my analysis but it seems that the Lingfield 3.05 (Rachel Perchard 40th Birthday Conditions Stakes) last Saturday may have all the classic hallmarks of a “key raceâ€ÂÂ
Onto Thursday……
The 3.00 at Southwell looks suitably bad enough for us mug punters to get our teeth into… :biggrin:
Firstly favourite: Mill by The Stream 5 course visits – yet to be out of the first 3 and secured his first win on the surface last time out. A worthy favourite –
What about the jockey?? Hadden Frost?
His current season form looks like this;
Rides:14 Wins: 2 2nd: 2 3rd: 2 Strike rate: 14.29% Profit/Loss: +£41.00
6lb penalty – offset by the 7lb claim? Very probable on those stats.
I intend to watch his last couple of runs when I get home from work tomorrow morning and if they impress me enough – I’ll suggest a bet.
Thanks Toad/Shoes. There’s a big one just around the corner, I can feel it in my water.:biggrin:
The very best of luck tomorrow; I’ll be at the sandpit as usual.<br>
3:30 Wolverhampton
All nice enough horses in their own right, including Hail The Chief who once sent speed-rating aficionados into a mad frenzied orbit back in 2000 when turning a competitive-looking Boxing Day handicap into a procession in a record time whilst doing handstands and whistling the star-spangled banner.
I digress.
Six runners and I reckon three of them are opposable.
Curtail – doesn’t stay this far, and a relative lack of pace last time didn’t help, so a similar scenario here isn’t enough to make this runner interesting.
Kindlelight Debut – hold-up mare who benefits from a flat-out pace, which is unlikely here, and seemingly has something of an allergy to very small fields.
Hail The Chief – the most likely pace-maker, and a sand whizz, but plenty old enough now and to this point has never been competitive first time out after a break.
This leaves three who are not instantly opposable…
Blythe Spirit – suited by the trip and came second in the 2005 Winter Derby on his only dirt start to date. Very strong in the early market although enthusiasm has to be tempered by the possibility of a false pace.
Atlantic Quest – good course record, is in reasonable form, suited by around this distance and yard is in good form. On the downside, is badly treated by the race conditions but likely odds compensate for that.
Xtra Torrential – pieces of form in very bitty career to date make this race look a feasible ask and smaller stable seems to be on the verge of hitting form.
Recommendation<br>The uncertain pace profile of the race tempers confidence, but…
A – Blythe Knight<br>B – Atlantic Quest<br>C – Xtra Torrential
A-B, A-C = 2 x £1.50 Exactas<br>B-A, C-A = 2 x £1.00 Exactas<br>B-C, C-B = 2 x 0.50p Rev. F/C (£6 total)
Quote: from Sailing Shoes on 11:53 pm on Jan. 24, 2007[br]Onto Thursday……
The 3.00 at Southwell looks suitably bad enough for us mug punters to get our teeth into… :biggrin:
Firstly favourite: Mill by The Stream 5 course visits – yet to be out of the first 3 and secured his first win on the surface last time out. A worthy favourite –
What about the jockey?? Hadden Frost?
His current season form looks like this;
Rides:14 Wins: 2 2nd: 2 3rd: 2 Strike rate: 14.29% Profit/Loss: +£41.00 ÂÂÂ
6lb penalty – offset by the 7lb claim? Very probable on those stats.
I intend to watch his last couple of runs when I get home from work tomorrow morning and if they impress me enough – I’ll suggest a bet.<br>
I just noticed Mill By The Stream won @ 9/4. Well done, excellent pick.
Cheers FSL,
I backed the horse to small stakes – but with being on nights – missed the race through sleep. Always nice to wake upto a winner. ;)
Well done Mr Shoes.. Another winner for this thread.. :cool:
The wolverhampton conditions event today sits outside my personal betting rules so no bet for me NV.. Good luck though.. ;) <br>
Strange race this one.
Blythe Knight 6/4<br>Kindlelight Debut 3/1<br>Hail The Chief 4/1<br>Curtail 9/1
My tissue obviously reflects that, despite being well in here, I think Blythe Knight thrives in big fields/big pace (as others have already pointed out). However, the remaining three all have enough drawbacks for me to ignore my prices.
I can see Hail the Chief bossing this one, despite the break, but with NV’s notes, and Corals going longest I’ll definitely sit this one out for now.
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