- This topic has 134 replies, 28 voices, and was last updated 16 years, 9 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
Yesterday’s Leopardstown race was run at a sound clip, and the fact that SE coasted through the fractions, and even took a pull just before the final bend, augurs very well for the big day,imho.
Also, I don’t know what he’s going to have to run to win – nor do I particulary care – but I think having a horse with SE’s ability in the field will help Harchibald – another horse with the class not to be inconvienced by a hot pace, which the Champion is almost always run in. I’m not saying Harchibald will win – could anyone really be confident of that ? – but anything around the 5/2 mark for him to place is very tempting, imho.
I think what FoF is trying say is that if you have a number of horses in or around the same rating, then the ratings are not very useful in their own right. This is because a horse rated 170 isn’t necessarily going to beat a horse rated 165 just because he has 5lbs on him – the conditions could suit the 165 horse better or the 170 horse’s stable could be out of form etc etc. In this scenario it all boils down to basic form study and an analysis of how how the race will be run etc.
And to be more specific regarding the Champion Hurdle, at this stage (6 weeks to go) the race would appear to be between the first 4 in the betting, Sizing Europe, Sublimity, Harchibald, & Osana. Nobody but nobody needs ratings to tell them that.
Not getting better Colin I think my blood being up isn’t helping
These ratings do my nut in they are after the fact and about as much use as a hole in the head to a punter.
I made my choices for the Champion weeks ago based on the fact the horse looked potentially better than any other CH I have seen this year.
I probably would have ignored the race until the day but for the fact they were making Sublimity fav. I have no doubt he got pushed up in the ratings after he won the Champion Hurdle but my advice to anyone who fancies the horse is stuff his rating go back and take a look at last years Champion Hurdle.
He almost runs unbacked. Detriot City as we know now was a sick horse and runs badly. Hardy Eustace is getting ten bells knocked out of him as early as 3 from home. Ifitkaf is cruising and looking the most like winner and falls……….at the last they have all stopped like they have hit a brick wall and Sublimity hits the front. When he goes 3 lengths clear he starts bouncing up and down on the same spot and puts no further distance between himself and a very tired but game Hardy Eustace.
In short everything went his way and really any decent horse could have done what he did the way the others ran. He is no Superstar and no Champion Hurdler in my eyes
And I don’t agree with what the ratings say. He is over RATED as far as I am concerned.
Come March we will hopefully see a proper race. I think the form of the last few CH stinks of being very ordinary and is the worst spell in the history of the race. Rooster Booster Hardy Eustace and Brave Inca are hardly names I will remember…….too much about them is the same and they lack the class of past winners like Istabraq, Sea Pigeon, Night Nurse etc……you could hardly describe them as prolific winners. But hell did they know how to lose races.
Hardy Eustace can hardly mange to string 2 wins together and the horse has been beaten over 20 times. So when some expert tells me they think he’s a good Champion and push ratings in my face I almost bend over laughing at them………Brave Inca and Rooster Booster are in the same mould. True Champions don’t get there backsides kicked every second race….. hell I think Bula won 21 on the trot or some crazy figure like that. Istabraq won 15 out of 16 races in one spell. Night Nurse didn’t know how to lose.
The truth in my eyes about Sublimity he does not deserve to be rated as a Champion. If he has improved sufficiently and can go on and win this years Champion Hurdle I will take my hat of to him.
Why on earth they never kept him in the AIG to the last minute I can’t understand…..Could he not have raced in that ground? We have only seen him get stuffed this year and I couldn’t bet him in a dream without him proving he can beat the top horses again. You could feel confident if the horse had won 6 top class races on the trot and you knew he was special but to bet him on winning that farce of a CH last year or because he has a high rating………….wouldn’t be me
"Why on earth they never kept him in the AIG to the last minute I can’t understand.."
Fists, there’s a report on another forum that Sublimity’s owner isn’t at all well and he didn’t want the horse to run.
Colin
And to be more specific regarding the Champion Hurdle, at this stage (6 weeks to go) the race would appear to be between the first 4 in the betting, Sizing Europe, Sublimity, Harchibald, & Osana. Nobody but nobody needs ratings to tell them that.
I would disagree, as I don’t think the horses mentioned have enough consistent form in the book. I believe this to be the most open CH in several years, and strongly fancy Blythe Knight to run a very big race. Ebaziyan can’t be discounted based on his liking for quicker ground, and his win in last year’s Supreme Novices, nor can Straw Bear, after winning the Christmas hurdle.
FoF, for my part, a rating is merely an academic exercise to determine the value of the form displayed.
I would agree with davdibrady and others: each race has to be viewed in isolation, and ratings can often have little bearing on the outcome. Ground conditions, weight, course form, wellbeing, stable-form etc, are the critical factors – not the rating.
FoF, for my part, a rating is merely an academic exercise to determine the value of the form displayed.
I would agree with davdibrady and others: each race has to be viewed in isolation, and ratings can often have little bearing on the outcome. Ground conditions, weight, course form, wellbeing, stable-form etc, are the critical factors – not the rating.
I can see nothing wrong with double checking before you bet and using them in that way why not? I do look at them occasionally myself if I cant see why a horse is a big price……….it’s a short cut I take often rather than studying lots of form but only if I am not having a bet in the race. Ex. Picking out 4 for Bobs tipping comp.
Marb, I get Osana running to 163 in the Bula
Grass
What do you make of the lengths "nicked" at the start? On another forum there has been a bit of whining about that and the assumption that "10 lengths should be taken off the victory"
Certainly not as simple as that for me, but has to be a little bit of a factor
The nicked lengths theory is bogus. Osana got a 5 length start on the field which had reduced to 1 length as they crossed the second hurdle in the straight. As they turn out into the back straight watch Paddy Brennan’s hands, he started to push again to regain the 5 length lead which he more or less maintained till the finish.
Anyone backing or laying the horse on the strength of the "10 lengths" start really needs to look at the race again imo.
I just love that marb his basing his entire argument, on the notion of a ‘visual improvement of 17 or 18lbs’ upon a rating the horse didn’t actually have, thee 155 quoted presumably being a number picked out of thin air.
.I can’t have Sizing Europe on anything more than 161-163 after today, given the manner of victory, and it remains to be seen if he’ll go through with his effort at Cheltenham. He was cruising in behind Aitmatov 2 or 3 outings ago before finding trouble, and would surely have won easily, but looked incredibly laboured in beating both Big Zeb (hardly world class form) and Osana in his following 2 runs.
This where you and I differ. When I first noticed Sizing Europe it was when he was around 10 and 12/1 for the CH.
I wouldn’t have known the horse existed had it not been for that.
All I had to go on was some ATR videos and the first one I looked at was when he beat Big Zeb……….The horse came through on the inside and in a matter of strides had put 4 lengths between him and the rest of the field.
The first thought that went through my mind was " Geez this is some tool" and that is on my sons life.
You on the other hand with all your accounting skills and expert rating numbers saw a horse who was "Incredibly Laboured".
I’ll say he would have won against Aitmatov ok but I doubt you even watched the race.he never got hampered or got into trouble he fell….did you actually watch these races?
I can’t comment on the race he beat Osana in I haven’t seen it.
If you did watch the races then there is no hope for you…You might be a ab hand with a calculator but you are positively an incredibly bad judge with no idea what a good horse looks like.
How can you slag Marb who says the horse has improved 17lbs and you are more or less saying he was useless…………how much in lbs would you estimate betweeen being "Incredibly Laboured" and Champion Hurdle class?
Personally I don’t think he has improved that much at all. Maybe 6 or 7lbs and I think the talent was there for all to see you just have no idea what to look for.
Have a nice day
Marb, I get Osana running to 163 in the Bula
Grass
What do you make of the lengths "nicked" at the start? On another forum there has been a bit of whining about that and the assumption that "10 lengths should be taken off the victory"
Certainly not as simple as that for me, but has to be a little bit of a factor
I don’t know that it was much of a factor, clivex.
They all wanted to take a lead anyway, and even if they had moved off together, Osana would still have been 8L in front by the time they reached the second hurdle. He simply sustained a gallop that none of the others could match, imo.
Cheers carv and grass…. I had been meaning to watch the race again but that makes sense to me
Without Hardy is there another horse that will contest Osana’s lead this time? Whereas front runners can cut each other up, hold up contenders can sometimes spend rather a lot of time looking at each other….
I find this Osana a most puzzling horse. I have only seen him run once which was along time ago so I am at a bit of a loss on how good he is.
The race he won that put him in the Champion Hurdle picture was it a good race or a bad race?
You have Sublimity apparently big as a bull and never a factor and beating him that day could be totally meaningless.
However he also trounced Katchit albeit he was a 5 year old getting weight from a 4 year old.
I think the question people should be asking themselves is not about this 10 length saga which has probably no bearing on the result whatsoever, what they should be asking themselves how near to 100% fit was Katchit that day.
If we are to believe what was said on here then he was short of a gallop at least and if his trainer has only one race in mind this season then the form could be worthless. His price says differently but that’s the bookies who cut everything they can for any reason they can.
I think for him to win being a front runner he is going to have to be extra special and very very tough. It takes some doing to take an entire field of top flight hurdlers off their feet when they are 100% fit.
You would have to think Sizing Europe has his measure. Looking at the two races they have won you could say they have both improved. I just feel there’s much more doubt about the credibility one should attach to Osana win.
I have a feeling we might see Osana being the first horse beaten at Cheltenham. I know there is none better than getting a front runner cherry ripe than the Pipes but I truly feel he is going to be miles out his class on CH day.
Katchit is sure to strip much fitter and he and Sizing Europe would be wanting to take the lead off Osana at the top of the hill if they stick to their style of running. I really can’t see him coping.
Interesting debate, folks!
Osanna can run a biggie in the CH. He may be able to lead without too much pestering from the rest. I do not know what the time ratings were like, but the pace looked very healthy in the Boylesports.
I think it is dangerous thinking to suggest he "nicked" the race.
Hardy E is not running in the Champion (?)
The thing about SE – is that he looks tailor made for the CH – a faster pace will help him settle better and allow him to jump more fluently, imo.
However….2/1 is a joke!
As others have said – he will be nearer 4/1 on the day imho.
Zip
He’s actually still available at 5/2 which is a fair price and I doubt you will see much better unless Osana does something Special on Friday in the Kingwell, but I have a feeling they won’t run the horse.
It’s been reduced to a six horse race if form is to be believed.
Sizing Europe 5/2 7/4
Sublimity 9/2 4/1
Osana 5/1 9/2
Katchit 9/1 13/2
Harchibald 8/1 9/1
Straw Bear 14/1 16/1The only other horse with a chance that may or may not run depending on the Ground Blythe Knight
on the day I think if nothing runs between now and March you will see prices like the ones on the right.
Quite simply the bookies will reduce the second and third fav to put people off backing them ew……
P.S. I am the worst judge when it comes to making a book you could ever come across so please feel free to take pot shots at me
my problem is I am very suspicious of people in racing if wings were 10p a pound they are so fly they would be millionaires.When I look at those rating for SE that would have put me right off the horse and I wouldn’t have bet him. That is if that 129 was what they rated him after he won the race before he fell…….that’s when I thought he was a champion Hurdle Horse……..not at that time of course but when I first viewed the video because thats all I had to go on plus he was coming in a little bit in the betting………..To be frank to say Katchit has improved only a few pounds is a very big assumption……….it may be what the rating say but that doesn’t wash with me. Racing is never that easy.
I am not overly exited about the 12/1 as I split my bet 4 times by backing both Katchit and SE……….but if you are correct I can forget Katchit winning anything………..BUT!!
I think they have been games with little Katchit and he’s much better than anything he shown this season. I don’t think it’s for gambling purposes but I do feel they have let the horse down a bit and are treading softly softly. I know it was only the Triumph he won but it was the style he did it in..he didn’t just beat that field he annihilated them.
Alan King is a very shrewed man and I reckon his way of thinking is that Katchit being a small horse would not want to be having a season like last on his way to the big one. Slowly slowly and give the horse time to mature that little bit more then get around now begin the serious work to have him 110% on the day…….
But I am under no illusions we could all be totally wrong as the Champion Hurdle is famed for springing surprises….as good as SE looked he still has to produce that in the big one………at the end of the day no matter how you look at it the 3 horses he beat were all 25/1 for the big one before yesterdays race and he still has to meet and beat the real threats.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.