- This topic has 134 replies, 28 voices, and was last updated 18 years, 5 months ago by
.
- Posts
Aitmatov for me..
I think it hinges on Al Eile’s form, which on a line through Jazz Messenger (Who I thought should have won the December hurdle) and Sweet Kiln put’s him roughly on a par with Aitmatov and in the conditions i’d go for the latter. I’m a bit concerned about Sizing Europes absence so will leave him alone.
I am not so sure Sizing Europe has been the subject of any huge gamble for the Champion Hurdle. I think like myself people have bet the horse looking for value. No doubt he’s a nice horse who would have won his last three races but for falling.
I can’t for the life of me fancy Hardy Eustace who is past his best as he will surely be done for toe again. World hurdle entry Almatov is a good horse but he may be better over a longer distance.
That leaves Al Eile who won well last time out but that was on good ground. Only 4 lengths away was Ebaziyan who, looking at his form, much prefers it soft. He was badly hampered on the home turn by Jazz messenger or would surely have finished closer, has won since and is amazingly 14/1. With the ground likely to suit him a lot better he would have to go close but I’ll stick with Sizing Europe who this is make or break for may yet prove to be a Champion Hurdle horse. Gotta have a small saver on Ebaziyan.unless someone knows something I don’t??
That’s me for the next couple of days her indoors is giving me grief for typing.
Thanks David it seems he is saying it wont suit him despite the fact it was heavy when he won last time out. Different story than this though that was a bad race and he’s most likely correct.
How about I steal the money out the girlfriend’s piggy bank and put it back if wins
How those wrists, Fists?
Colin
More comebacks than Kicking King, but will he be as good as before his tragic tendon injury?
Fooking gouping!!!!! I’m off to get a Thai Massage, a wrist supported fitted…(should have went to boots the robbing beggars) a good old Scottish remedy called Black Label and try and forget the past before I kill some fooka
Silent Oscar not declared (along with Sublimity of course) so a field of 6 goes to post
Aitmatov is a 2 to 2 1/2miler for me and as such will probably have a good shout in the CH.. He’s got too much pace to be running in the world hurdle..
I think the support for sizing europe is partly genuine and partly punters on the bandwagon, a few days ago, the day after sublimity was pulled from the AIG Sizing Europe was quite heavily supported in both the Champ Hurdle and AIG markets, right across the board with every bookmaker on oddschecker cutting him in, it didnt really look like punter support.
I looked around for any reports that may have caused punters to "get on" but other than sublimitys defection there wasnt really anything to explain the gamble. Time will tell but I suspect there is a weight of expectation on Sizing Europe for sunday at least.
- Total Posts 17716
Promising horse though he is, Sizing Europe has plenty to find to win this.
Aitmatov probably needs further to be at his best, a best that would still not normally be good enough for this race.
Game though he is, Hardy Eustace probably needs a stiffer test nowadays, which leaves Al Eile as the likeliest winner for me.
Already has one in the bag against HE this season, and doubtful if any of these would have done any better against a rampant Harchibald. Seems to have improved a little this season too, so it’s hard to see why he’s only 4th in the market.I may be being a bit thick here lol but isn’t this race as straight shootout between Hardy Eustace and Al Eile?
Both clear of anything else on my ratings :
Sizing Europe – Best form a handicap win beating Osana when getting six pounds in weight. Leaves him around 9 / 10 pounds to find to beat the two principals.
Altimatov – Has had around fifteen starts over hurdles and has not got one line of form to suggest he can beat AE and HE. His best ever run which still leaves him four or five lengths to find was over half a mile further and on heavy ground. That run apart he, like Sizing Europe has about 9 / 10 lbs to find.
Ebaziyan – At his very, very best is around 4 1/2 lengths behind Al Eile. Ok a few pounds improvement isn’t impossible but again thats his absolute peak and it was one run. Take out that run and guess what – 9 / 10 pounds to find again.
Lounaos – Wouldn’t win if he started the day before.
For the life of me I can’t see how AE and HE aren’t vying as short priced favourites considering everything else is going to have to post a career best to win this.
There’s not much between Hardy and Al Eile now at this trip. Hardy has the better overall form but whether or not he can reproduce that these days is open to question. However he should still run to somewhere between 158 – 162. If he does that only Al Eile (I have rated 160) has the form to battle out the finish with him.
Easy this game isn’t it?
Well I took the plunge this week and backed Al Eile (and Harchibald) for the Champion Hurdle, so I’m obviously hoping for the festive form to be confirmed. And to be honest I see no reason why anything should change.
The only problem I have is trying to assess Ebaziyan. He wasn’t beaten far, and was running on at the finish, behind Al Eile and Harchibald two outings ago, but really didn’t impress me when beating some relatively mediocre opposition last time. The ability is there, somewhere, but I remain uncertain as to how capable he is of showing it all at once.
I may be being a bit thick here lol but isn’t this race as straight shootout between Hardy Eustace and Al Eile?
No!!!
It’s a straight shoot out between Al Eile and Sizing Europe.
I hope the latter will prove the stronger as I have backed him for the CH proper I really like the horse he has a touch of class and is mega tough which he will have to be against these horse
Hardy Eustace is the George Foreman of the race. You see his name and think "Hell is he still around"
Unfortunately like foreman he could also throw a sucker punch and knock you flat on your ass at anytime.I watched Al Eile again and I must admit very impressive, impressive enough for me to take a watching brief and not have a bet.
HE is too old and slow to win Grade 1 hurdle’s over 2m. Great hurdler that he is he won’t win today.. I’m banging the drum but Aitmatov doesn’t need further. He just needs a strong pace..
The ground is gone against Aitmatov now IMO – can’t see him winning on Yld/Sft. Too close to call now although I wouldn’t write Lounaos off totally. Bottomed out after her run in this race last year she has had just the one pipe-opener this season so far and I think she could surprise people.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.