- This topic has 134 replies, 28 voices, and was last updated 18 years, 3 months ago by
.
- Posts
Grass
He is not performing as well as previous years, but his runs this season suggests he is still capable of producing performances in the low 160’s
AL Eile’s run behind Harchibald and in front of Katchit in Fighting Fifth and his run in December Festival Hurdle beating HE etc also suggest he is a low 160’s 2 miler
This ties in well with the distances both horses have beaten the 155 rated Ebaziyan
You can of course say, this is not so, but you would probably be under-rating each horse imo
I have champ hurdle between Sublimity and Sizing Eurpoe but Im hoping that Sizing Europe’s win today will cause Sublimity to drift in the betting. I think sublimity is a really nice horse at his best, all his work reports have been really good and its worth noting that a gamble developed on sizing europe the day after Sublimity was declared as a non-runner, so even the stable must fear sublimity, and if he gets out to reasonable price Ill be backing him…
Thanks for the explanation Flash.
If I may be so bold, I think you have Al Eile too high at 160, by a good few lbs. He hasn’t ran to a rating of 160 over 2m yet, in my opinion anyway. I also refuse to believe that the mare is worth a 148 rating. She was blitzed in the Triumph, and despite a comfortable win first time out, she’s only really a low-140’s performer – even 148 flatters her hugely imo.
Charlie, I disagree.
Hardy Eustace was only a 165 horse when he was winning Champion Hurdles. He has definitely regressed since those days, and I’m quite comfortable that he isn’t capable of putting up that kind of mark over 2m nowadays. Equally, Al Eile’s run in Newcastle was only worth a mid-150’s rating, as Harchibald didn’t need to run anywhere near the best of his form (which would again be mid-160’s) in order to win. As for Katchit, if your handing out 160 to Al Eile, then you need to give Katchit about 159, and I refuse to believe he is worth a mark as high as that. Ebizayan has done nothing – not even in winning the Supreme Novices – to suggest he warrants a rating of 155.
There is always the possibility that we are using different scales, of course.
On my scale, I have the following:
Osana 163+
Sublimity 163?
Sizing Europe 162+
Harchibald 159 Woof-woofAll of them will toil to punch-up a rating near 170 in the Champion Hurdle. This is far from being a vintage year, though we have a couple of horses who could yet prove me wrong. But right now, none of them are worth a rating in the 170’s – none of them.
Edited: I have Harchibald on 159 after Newcastle.
Flippin heck Grass – I may have missed it in teh past but I never had you down as a numbers man. I thought you were more of a gut-feel/instinct boyo.
Anyway, my gut-feel/instinct is that, good horse though Sizing Europe looked, he will find Sublimity a tough nut to crack come Cheltenham. I think that Sublimity should be judged solely on his Champion Hurdle win as I think the only occasion this season he’ll be ready to run to that level will be in March and that he is very likely to do so.
Grass
You seem to be under-rating a few horses imo, but differing opinions is what makes horse racing the GREAT game and we’ll have to agree to disagree on this
No worries, Charlie.
Equally, I reckon you are over-rating a few horses, but it’s these difference of opinions that make betting markets and racing-forums, I guess.
You showed how you got your ratings Grasshopper but one thing you did not say was how you got Osana on 163+, especially in comparison to Sizing Europe who you have a pound below at 162+. That quite stange for a horse who finished ahead of his opponent in the greatwood and has just won the AIG in comprehensive fashion., even in your own book improving 7 pound all the while.
Marb, I get Osana running to 163 in the Bula.
I get Katchit running to 159 in the Bula, improving on his Newcastle run by around 7lbs.
I’ve got Penzance running to 148 in the Bula.
Osana was giving Sizing Europe 6lbs in the Greatwood, on ground that would not have suited, when the stable were stuggling.
I might add that whilst everyone is apparently creaming themselves about what Sizing Europe did to Hardy Eustace and Al Eile today, they seem to have conveniently forgotten that Osana did pretty much the same thing to the reigning Champion Hurdler, the reigning juvenile champion hurdler, the Champion Hurdle third, and the winner of the Christmas Hurdle (who happened to beat Harchibald in that race).
Perhaps, if we’re going to hand out 170-ratings to Sizing Europe on the back of today’s effort, we might – collectively – want to do the same for Osana’s Bula performance?
Of course……I’m forgetting…..there were excuses for Sublimity, Katchit, Afsoun, and Straw Bear that day, and Osana pinched the race at the start too.
But the form of the AIG is rock-solid – have no doubt on that score.
I just love that marb his basing his entire argument, on the notion of a ‘visual improvement of 17 or 18lbs’ upon a rating the horse didn’t actually have, thee 155 quoted presumably being a number picked out of thin air.
Quantifying the achievements of the ‘best’ two mile hurdlers in Ireland is extremely difficult when the likes of Jazz Messenger and Farmer Brown appear in much of the form, but appear massively over-rated at 157 and 155 respectively. Both rank alongside the likes of Ebaziyan in my view, at least on December Hurdle form, and anything from 146-149 would seem far more appropriate.
Assuming those numbers are right, and I’d need some convincing in suggesting they weren’t, then Al Eile and Hardy Eustace’s achievements over the minimum trip suddenly look all the worse. Even the latters victory over Afsoun can’t be worth the 162 it received given his subsequent exploits (his position in the Champion Hurdle was vastly over-rated, with him simply staying on past knackered horses).
The fact is too many of the supposed two milers are better over futher now – Al Eile (and I know I say this having stupidly backed him for the Champion Hurdle), Jazz Messenger, Hardy Eustace and Afsoun all need 20f, and ratings have been skewed in using them as reliable yardsticks.
I can’t have Sizing Europe on anything more than 161-163 after today, given the manner of victory, and it remains to be seen if he’ll go through with his effort at Cheltenham. He was cruising in behind Aitmatov 2 or 3 outings ago before finding trouble, and would surely have won easily, but looked incredibly laboured in beating both Big Zeb (hardly world class form) and Osana in his following 2 runs.
RPR of 170+
Anyone know Timeform rating or are Sleepy Hollow handicappers allowed weekend off
Sizing Europe was very impressive in his manner of victory today. Al Eile & Hardy Eustace as good as ran to the same level as in their previous duel over C&D IMO, which only serves to back the form up further. However I agree with what some people say that we’ll never see a top-class performance over 2m from Hardy Eustace again, and that Al Eile wants further based on form at Aintree & on the flat. So I think some caution needs to be applied before giving SE the ticker-tape parade for winning the big one.
That being said, I’ve got the CH between him and Sublimity now as they are the only two I can see running to that magic 170 mark* you need to win the championship races.
* Ironically, as i write this I’ve just noticed SE has been given an RPR of 170+. I think that’s a bit much, especially given the marks of 161 for the 2nd & 3rd. I’d be taking everything down about 4-5lbs based on AE & HE.
That being said, I’ve got the CH between him and Sublimity now as they are the only two I can see running to that magic 170 mark* you need to win the championship races.
It’s a myth that you need to run to 170 to win a Champion Hurdle. In fact, there hasn’t been a horse run to a 170-rating in the race since Istabraq.
There seems to be a prevailing school of thought that, because a race is a Grade 1, and because it is representative for that Grade, then any winning performance (especially one as convincing as Sizing Europe’s was) automatically results in a 170+ performance.
But, imo, there are no 2m hurdlers around capable of putting up a 170 performance, and there hasn’t been for several season now. SE and Osana are probably the only two that might prove capable of it, but I’m not convinced.
A 170 rating equates to an exceptional performance. It does not necessarily equate to a winning performance in a Grade 1.
Sorry, ambiguous wording from me. I appreciate that 170 will guarantee you many Grade 1s, almost certainly including this year’s CH. However, that’s the mark I’m looking at a horse being capable of achieving on evidence presented thus far in order to make him a safe CH bet.
Also, I appreciate you’re probably more of a Timeform disciple Grass, but RPRs have 7 of the last 10 CH winners posting 170 or more, including 4 since Istabraq. I do find that hard to swallow, but at the same time looking back I fully reckon there’s one or two in there worthy of such a lofty figure.
Robert Hall on RTE was very negative about SE’s jumping, saying he spends too long in the air and will have to improve to win a Champion- he must have been watching a different race to me as I thought he jumped exhuberently because he was tanking- I can see him jumping even better if he’s going a bit quicker at Cheltenham- I think he’s a good thing.
Your namesake spoke very eloquently afterwards AP on RTE about putting his trust in an up-and-coming young trainer and being rewarded, seems like a very nice man.I think you should all be asking yourselves where you had Sizing Europe before the race. All these 170’s 160’s have about as much relevance on what a horse is going to do on the day as what colour of hat is the Queen going wear at Ascot.
I’ll tell you what it won’t matter a monkey’s uncle what you rate the horse if he’s not good enough he won’t be winning any champion hurdle.
Surely anyone could look at the Champion Hurdle horses and pick the best 6 without even glancing at ratings?
To me you look at the ground on the day, who you think will make the running, will the pace suit the horse you think is best…..Is the horse suited by Cheltenham, was he at his best the last couple of runs he had..does he have the toe to get past such and such, how will he react if it comes to a head to head…all these factors are something ratings don’t cover and I have no idea why you have to be sitting working them all out.
How do they help you? Do you look at a race and just back the top rated horse and expect to find winners like that?
I think you should all be asking yourselves where you had Sizing Europe before the race. All these 170’s 160’s have about as much relevance on what a horse is going to do on the day as what colour of hat is the Queen going wear at Ascot.
I’ll tell you what it won’t matter a monkey’s uncle what you rate the horse if he’s not good enough he won’t be winning any champion hurdle.
Surely anyone could look at the Champion Hurdle horses and pick the best 6 without even glancing at ratings?
To me you look at the ground on the day, who you think will make the running, will the pace suit the horse you think is best…..Is the horse suited by Cheltenham, was he at his best the last couple of runs he had..does he have the toe to get past such and such, how will he react if it comes to a head to head…all these factors are something ratings don’t cover and I have no idea why you have to be sitting working them all out.
How do they help you? Do you look at a race and just back the top rated horse and expect to find winners like that?
I think you should be asking yourself why you are commenting on ratings and their use, when from this post you can plainly see you have no idea about their use or could it be you are playing a silly game
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.