A "Tilt" at the Top Weights

[billion]

Here is another suggestion how it may be possible to benefit from “Top weights”.

My mind goes back a long while to a forum member believing PLACE ONLY selections were a way to profit from horse racing but sadly my Place selections proved as hard to find as winning ones.

I have had one of those bright ideas regarding top weights and top trainers.

I wonder if when the top weight horse in a handicap race is from a major trainer it could be an ideal prospect to become a suitable selection.

Example from today’s racing.

Lingfield 5.05 Mark Johnston sent out HAWATIF. Available at 5/4 3 places with SkyBet and was placed 2nd at 12/1.

Such betting will not suit everyone but may suit others.

Billy's Outback Shack

[billion]

Ideas about the horse(s) at the top of the handicap race card which are thought to be the best one(s) in the race and continue to fascinate. By pure chance (serendipity) I found an earlier spread sheet showing profitable results, which begs the question of why or how it found its way into my folder of “rested” systems.

It targets those at better prices and as far as I can see this had been achieved.

Rules: –
SUN Spot horse must be either 1.2.or 3 on the race card.
Handicap with a maximum of 15 declared runners.
Forecast price between 5 & 16/1

ZOFFANYS PRIDE 3.50 Salisbury looks to be ideal with an early price of 11/1 available via Coral

Lycidas 2.45 Hamilton falls slightly short with a FcSp of 9/2 but is available at 7/1 and so is interesting.

Billy's Outback Shack

[mulls74]

There is a qualifier on the “standard” top weight rules today – Call Out Loud, 5.35 Salisbury.

[billion]

A 2lb difference mulls74 falls short of my minimum needs of 6lb but although selections are few and far between I do like the target of 8lb difference as per your data from HRB. Then of course the trainer list you provided also comes into play, well for me anyway.

No wonder I get confused with so many variations on the one theme of Top Weights however it certainly makes for serious study and application being both simple and complicated at the same time.

Billy's Outback Shack

[mulls74]

You’re right – the alert on HRB has taken the rider’s claim on the second top weight into account, which makes it a qualifier on weight carried. It’s best I am sure not to include riders’ claims when looking for qualifiers.
It’s something for me to remember when looking for qualifiers in the future.

[billion]

Just ONE day out but will it matter?

Saturday.

Haydock 4.30 VOIX D’EAU is 9lb clear and won LTO 24 days previous (Not 23)

Available at 3/1 with Ladbrokes.

Billy's Outback Shack

[billion]

VOIX D’EAU was not so good but here is hoping the one tomorrow (Monday) is better: –

Towcester 6.00 MARJU’s QUEST +14lb 1LTO 3days ago
available early at 11/4

Billy's Outback Shack

[Purwell]

VOIX D’EAU clouted the 8th fence pretty hard apparently and this would have knocked the wind out of him.

I've stumbled on the side of twelve misty mountains
I've walked and I crawled on six crooked highways

[billion]

Purwell wrote:

VOIX D’EAU clouted the 8th fence pretty hard apparently and this would have knocked the wind out of him.

I have my fingers crossed MARJU’S QUEST manages a clear round.

Billy's Outback Shack

[billion]

Each way caution reduced the loss via MARJU’S QUEST and things are looking brighter for the next selection: –

Southwel 6.05 KELTUS available early at 13/8

Billy's Outback Shack

[billion]

9 bets since 6th April.

4 placed
2 wins

I need a little bit more action than this is providing, perhaps I will revisit the idea when autumn comes around and see if the NH season offers more opportunities.

Billy's Outback Shack

[billion]

Returning to the original rules as set by the author of a minimum weight difference of 6lb a selection can be found: –

Bath 5.15 ZEEONEANDONLY 1 LTO (6 days ago) 6lb weight difference & 2fav.

Maybe reverting to the author’s rules more selections will be found and then playing a bonus stake for any with 8-12lb difference.

Billy's Outback Shack

[billion]

Just when I complain of not enough selections to keep my interest they come along by the bucket full.

ZEEONEANDONLY found the 2nd spot for me and I am starting to thnk my selections think 2nd is good enough.

Lingfield 2.00 GLASGOW CENTRAL +6lb is available at 7/2

Worcester 5.55 SHEER POETRY +7lb is available at 5/2

One for mulls 74
Sandown 6.25 HARBOUR LAW +10lb is available at 5/1

Billy's Outback Shack

[billion]

1st – 2nd – 3rd but the laurels must be awarded to mulls74 for recognising the 8lb plus as an essential winning component and HARBOUR LAW proved just that with a winning Sp of 7/2

Friday delivers another selection: –

Catterick 7.40 RUSTY ROCKET +8lb 1 LTO 4days ago whilst 3rd in the betting forecast. Lost

SIR DYLAN in the 8.50 at Stratford meets the +6lb rule Won 10/1

Both available on the early markets at 4/1

Billy's Outback Shack

[billion]

Saturday

Stratford 7.35 DUNRAVEN STORM +7lb 19days 1st LTO FcFav. . . . . early price 9/2

Billy's Outback Shack

[billion]

Dunraven Storm could not follow the superb win of Sir Dylan but maybe we have a chance today: –

Sunday

Nottingham 4.35 HARRY HURRICANE +6lb 1LTO only 1 day ago but 6th in the forecast ? ? ?

Available last evening at 4/1

Billy's Outback Shack

[Purwell]

Beat of luck, I don’t normally bet on Sundays now, found it a very disappointing day.

I've stumbled on the side of twelve misty mountains
I've walked and I crawled on six crooked highways

[Author]

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