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Hello Billion
I hope you don’t mind me adding my thoughts on what looks an interesting method. I ran it through Horseracebase to test it with the following rules. I couldn’t do it exactly with your rules, but went as close as I could:
UK handicap races
First six in the betting (SP)
Top weight
Won one of its past three races
Running within 23 days
6lbs or more clear of second top weight
I also added Class 4 or above because the results on Class 1-3 races were terrible.
That brought up the following result since 2003:
Bets Wins WinStrike £1 bet Places PlaceStrike
1863 556 29.84% -8.01 974 52.28%
A 30% strike-rate betting in handicaps is excellent and a tiny loss at SP. That suggests to me that betting at early prices or on the exchanges could make a decent profit.
Or, if you stick to the above rules but focus on horses that 8-12lb clear of the second top weight you massively cut down the number of bets, up the strike-rate and increase the profit:
Bets Wins WinStrike £1 bet Places PlaceStrike
740 235 31.76% 72.73 396 53.51%
That’s at SP averaging just over a bet per week.
So an excellent method all roundMulls74.
This is getting better and better, so once again I do thank-you for your input. I do hasten to add the system is not of my creation and I have just added the requirement of having a win within the previous 3 runs.
I have not found a selection today or the previous few days and so reducing the numbers yet again is a blow but if the profits are better then it must be considered.
From your Horseracebase data can you tell what the expected numbers of selections are?
Billy's Outback Shack
On the rules above (ie 8-12lb clear), it’s 1-2 bets per week. They do seem worth waiting for though! The rules are slightly different to your’s, on the 6lb clear limit you would get 3-4 bets per week.
Time to “Fill your boots”.
Wednesday: –
Lingfield 3.40 SOUTHERN STORM +12lb. Form = 161, out in 6 days – £1.85 @ 7/4 bet365
Here we go Mulls74, keep your fingers crossed. WON 5/4
CLOTILDE – 4.45 Lingfield +7lb won 6 days previous but sadly is odds on and 1lb short.
Billy's Outback Shack
Southern Storm certainly got the 8lb + off to a good start for Mulls74 but I find I am back to the original plan for Saturday.
Aintree 1.45 SILSOL 20p ew at 22/1 with Paddy Power 3rd at 20/1
Billy's Outback Shack
Not that I am familiar with HORSERACEBASE but perhaps I can ask mulls74 a question which may help this go forward with regard to the flat racing season.
Heavier weights are carried during the NH racing season and therefore it is easy to summise the weight disparity will also be greater than those on the flat.
Will such weight differences still occur such as 8lb to 12lb as you have suggested or am I going down a blind alley thinking the maximum weight differential could or should be less.
The data from HORSERACEBASE will be interesting.
Billy's Outback Shack
Wednesday.
Cheltenham 3.35 WISHFULL THINKING E/W at 6/1 with BetVictor Lost and the news is it has been retired
Sometimes systems can overlap such as Fenman’s method of never betting at Cheltenham unless it has history of doing well over both course and distance which WISHFULL THINKING has achieved.Also MIGHT BITE has similar claims in the 3.00 race where it is also the top weight and being between 6lb & 8lb is oh so temping as an E/W play at 5/1. Lost
Billy's Outback Shack
Hello Billion
I’ve broken the races down in HRB and it seems that the method works better on the Flat. Sticking with the 8-12lb criteria pushes the strikerate up to 35% for the turf and AW. There are a similar number of bets too as over the jumps.
I don’t know how well the below table will come out, but it shows how the method works depending on how many pounds clear the top weight is. For example, top weights 1lb clear and meeting all the other method rules have a 20% strikerate, those 8lb clear have a 36% strikerate.Lbs clear Bets Wins Win% £1 bet Places Place&
1 2194 446 20% -277.01 1000 46%
2 1587 337 21% -248.36 767 48%
3 1170 272 23% -45.73 555 47%
4 789 174 22% -143.53 385 49%
5 649 176 27% 37.60 322 50%
6 485 135 28% -32.37 254 52%
7 292 76 26% -33.17 151 52%
8 184 67 36% 50.38 100 54%
9 139 49 35% 32.34 84 60%
10 87 28 32% 8.58 48 55%
11 56 20 36% -0.65 28 50%
12 28 7 25% -6.68 16 57%
13 16 8 50% 5.16 14 88%
14 10 5 50% 5.83 6 60%
15 11 4 36% -1.95 7 64%
16 10 2 20% -3.50 3 30%
17 5 2 40% -1.56 2 40%
18 3 3 100% 3.33 3 100%
20 3 1 33% -1.33 1 33%
21 1 0 0% -1.00 1 100%Thanks for your work mulls74.
If my reading of these stats are correct 8lb, 9lb. and 10lb. are looking the better weights.13lb. and 14lb. only pay for the small losses of 11lb and 12lb.
How strange it is when 5lb. profit is knocked out by 6lb. and 7lb.
I am sure one or two of our readership will be very interested in your work.
Billy's Outback Shack
You are a top man mulls74.
I had looked and missed it.
At 5/1 Skybet it certainly looks worthy of my e/w shilling.
What a shame being a non runner but BALLYCOE at Plumpton tomorrow in the 5.20 looks to be a prospect.
Billy's Outback Shack
Argent Knight, 3.30 Plumpton today is a qualifier if we are still using horses that are 5lb clear.
mulls74
BALLYCOE did the right thing for the system on Friday with an early price of odds against.
I have noted ARGENT KNIGHT and how tempting it is to be swayed from the 8lb to 12lb stats. you have proposed and at 4/1 last evening with Betfair becomes even more of a persuader.
I see it is running with a 6lb penalty and noted from the very same forum this Top Weight system was born is another thread regarding the virtues of such horses racing with penalty weights.
I am reminded to look again at the 1989 publication of the Clive Holt book PROFITABLE BETTING STRATEGIES where proceedure Number One entitled The HANDICAP WINNER talks of recent winners before being rehandicapped and proposes further cosideration.
For the lazy or those without due ability to read form etc. such as myself (my words not those of Mr. Holt) he suggests where there is only one such horse in the race carrying a weight penalty blindly following those at the PRINIPAL MEETING can find winners and return a profit quoting 986 bets with 256 winners producing 167 points profit from level stakes at S.P. over Flat and NH.
These facts and figures are almost 30 years out of date and perhaps have little to recommend them in todays world but the reason for adding weight penalties remains and if any reader can supply a workable system connected to penalty weights I will be pleased to read them.
But for the time being ARGENT KNIGHT will do for me.
Billy's Outback Shack
Hello Billion
Did some digging on penalised runners for you using HRB and there is a “system” but it would be a bit of a pain to monitor by hand. So I have set up a HRB alert and it will flag up any qualifiers.ALL HORSES CARRYING A PENALTY SINCE 2003 UK AND IRE
Bets: 15219
Wins: 3565 (23.42)
£1 bet at SP: -1012.98
£1 bet at Betfair SP (after commission): +132.94So betting at Betfair SP generates a profit which suggests best early prices would do the same.
I looked at all kinds of factors like race class, type etc without being able to come up with any easy way to boost the strike rate.
But I have a theory that certain trainers have horses that are so far ahead of the handicapper that the penalty still leaves them well in.
I looked at the record of all trainers who have had 10 or more penalised runners. The list below have all won with at least a third of their penalised horses.
Following these trainers has had the following results, whether they will continue is impossible to say but they have done well before.
It finds around two bets per week, no bet if more than one qualifier.
Bets: 1196
Wins: 492 (41.14%)
£1 bet at SP: +381.69 (31.91 ROI)Trainers with any penalised runner, UK and Ireland:
Appleby, Charlie
Attwater, M J
Baker, George
Bell, M L W
Berry, John
Bolger, J S
Boyle, J R
Bravery, G C
Brown, D H
Callaghan, S A
Cantillon, D E
Charlton, R
Clement, T T
Cowell, R M H
Cox, C G
Creighton, E J
Dickman, A
Dunlop, E A L
Feilden, Miss J
Flynn, Patrick J
Gask, J R
Gollings, S
Jarvis, W
Lanigan, D R
Lyons, G M
Makin, P J
McBride, P J
Midgley, P T
Morrison, H
Musson, W J
Oliver, Andrew
OMeara, D
ONeill, E J
Palling, B
Pitt, T J
Prescott, Sir Mark
Saunders, M S
Wall, C F
Weld, D K
Wigham, M
Williams, S CThere you have it – as I say, HRB will flag up the qualifiers and I am happy to pass them on. Only time will tell if the trainers continue to do well with penalised horses.
mulls74.
I am sure there will be some here, myself included, that will benefit from your good work.
I will certainly copy the list of trainers and try to watch out for them and perhaps there will also be some additions from the new breed as they emerge from the pack.
I have noticed two for tomorrow but sadly they are not included but feel unless an eye is kept out for “others” we may miss a winner or two: –
Chelmsford 2.00 SHINING ROMEO (Quinn) 6lb extra.
Windsor 7.30 MOOJANED (Evans) 6lb extra.
They were both available earlier at 13/2.
Perhaps other readers here may raise questions or suggestions that may improve upon what you have already found such as field sizes. Having read Clive Holt’s books he tends to favour races of between 6 minimum to 14 maximum runners.
Perhaps Matron will slide these postings across into a thread of their own so that when selections are flagged-up they will not be missed.
Billy's Outback Shack
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