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I did mention via “Filling the Void” how I came across this system for top weights on a different forum.
Although it may be wrong to identically copy it here I have not interfered very much with the authors intended rules but have added a small twist of my own in the hope of finding fewer losers and perhaps more winners thus greater profit but only time will tell.
There are also two further reasons for playing this one out. Filling the Void is much about “job done” and with just the one selection each day it has left me with a little extra time on my hands and I feel the need to indulge my passion for the experimenting in the hope of finding a system gem.
Secondly, only yesterday this system turned up a very nice 7/1 winner and so I feel rather gutted at missing it and having only just started to “paper trade” I thought there is no better place than here to keep my check on them and perhaps even receive advice as to any additional improvements.
My rules, with a twist: –
Check the top weighted horse only in handicap races, be they NH or Flat (incl. AW)
The top weighted horse must be 6lb clear (minimum) of the next horse.
It must be racing again within 23 days, the author claims stats. show this as providing more winners than those away from racing longer than this time.
The possible selection must be within the first 2/3rd of the betting (I check this with both the forecast and the live market at the time of bet placement).
Last but not least I prefer the horse to have had 3 season runs and won at least one of these 3 races.
Today’s selection: –
Wolverhampton 2.20 Class 5 handicap with 8 declared.
Top weight is BUSH WARRIOR 9st. 12lb is 5lb clear from Orient Class at 9st 7lb.having raced and won 9 days previous and is forecast favourite at 5/2.I am starting very much in a cautious mode staking e/w when possible in the hope of not losing too much until I have some reasonable data to provide enough confidence for win only bets.
Wolverhampton 2.20 BUSH WARRIOR 50p ew at 4/1 bet365. 2nd at 7/1
Safety first has paid off this time and produced a small profit with the ew approach.
Billy's Outback Shack
Nice approach, Bill…I’ve always liked top rated top weights so I’m looked forward to you having lots of winners (not that you’ll need them with your other thread coining it)!
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The author goes to some pain to point out there will not be a selection everyday and so there should not have been today as I have just spotted my mistake.
BUSH WARRIOR was in fact 5lb clear of the field when it should have been 6lb. How embarrassing is that for a first selection.
Thanks for your interest elcartero, I should have known your interest would have been piqued from our past when you always spotted those highly rated top weights and perhaps this system can recreate some success like you enjoyed in the past.
Billy's Outback Shack
As predicted by the author of this system there will be some blank days and this is one of them.
Billy's Outback Shack
Another day without a selection but perhaps they are worth waiting for!
Billy's Outback Shack
Just for information Bill…there were two selections top rated by Formcast yesterday which were top weight. No other filters were applied. They resulted in a winner at 9/2 and a loser….
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I hope you were on the winner elcartero. It will be interesting to hear from you if it is possible to adapt this suggestion to the Formcast rating or any rating for that matter.
There are not any bets for today (Saturday) but there is one to look out for tomorrow at Sedgefield should the bad weather permit.
ROXYFET 4.20. There is a 12lb weight difference and is racing within 10 days when it won LTO and is also the forecast favourite with the Red Rag (Mirror) and incidentally is napped by both Newsboy & Bouverie.
As I remember elcartero the Formcast ratings are not available on Sunday which spoils what I was about to ask and see what the rating is.
Billy's Outback Shack
Hi Bill…
Formcast ratings are normally available here, including Sundayshttp://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/racing/index.html
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Thanks for that elcartero, I have put it in my Favourites.
I could not see much there today but it is slow and painful going via the dongle and certainly not as easy as with the racing pages.
I will try to see if it will dovetail into this system in some way or another.
Billy's Outback Shack
I am taking the very early price of 2/1 about FOXYFET, 420 Sedgefield with £2 via BetVictor.
Won 3/1Billy's Outback Shack
SNAPPING TURTLE 2.50 Sedgefield earns a Formcast top rating of 78 whilst being top weight in the small field of only 6 runners.
Lost !1) Carrying 6lb more than the closest rival (Maggie Blue).
2) Having raced 19 days ago
3) 4th forecast fav. and 3rd fav. in the live market at 4/1 early.
? No win in the previous 3 races.
? Indicated as not liking the HEAVY going as per todays conditions.4/1 in a small field is very tempting indeed.
Billy's Outback Shack
I’m not shy of going for a few top weights myself Bill, so I’ll be keeping a close eye on how you do.
Good luck today, and with the thread over the coming weeks as well
I must confess VtC to having a little e/w weekend fund at 4/1 but such “fun” has cost me dearly this winter.
Although top weights are considered the best horses in the given field on the day we must respect the handicappers job is to stop them and the job can only be made harder still when the conditions are said to be HEAVY.
I would think and I stress the word “think” because I have no data whatsoever to back up my gut feeling but I suspect such horses do better on the flat when the summer (if ever we get one) ground is better and perhaps in sprints of 5 & 6 furlong dashes.
All of that said I must return to that awful word “value” but todays price of 4/1 when the 1st and 2nd favourites were 100/30 and 7/2 indicates a very open race and must be considered fair if not generous and with the possibility of being greater still via BOG offices looks good even to me as one who knows very little regarding pricing up races or individual horses.
Billy's Outback Shack
There is not a great deal to get excited about today without any system qualifier.
Should any self respecting punter follow a losing bet last time out? Under normal circumstances I pay little heed to them, if they lost, my attitude is they lost, so what – move on.
However ARTHAMINT has caught my eye having been a 7lb clear top weight bet and placed 2nd two Sundays back. Once again it is the top weighted horse being 7lb clear but the system form lets it down (1422) and there should be a win within the most recent 3 races.
Here is the rub! Top rated with the Mirror (so what, I can almost hear the cry) but also top rated with Formcast (78).
Southwell NH 2.30 ARTHAMINT £2 at 7/4 Stan James. 2nd again – I should have known better and stuck to the rules.
There are other (78) top rated but none come close to fitting in with the system rules or show me a worthwhile angle but then again I am not looking too hard.
Billy's Outback Shack
I read somewhere yesterday that top weights have a good strike rate on the tight jump tracks. I’m not sure of facts and figures, I don’t subscribe to a data service any more so I can’t check it out.
Both Southwell and Lingfield are described as “tight” tracks.I've stumbled on the side of twelve misty mountains
I've walked and I crawled on six crooked highwaysThe author makes no reference to any tracks as far as I can make out but the site is one I find very difficult to get along with.
As far as I can make out Month 1 produced 20pts profit, Month 2 made 10pts profit and so far Month 3 is up 13pts and I do believe enjoys a 40% strike rate.
Billy's Outback Shack
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