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8.40 Windsor – Smart Spender £100 win @ 6/1 PaddyPower
I like the look of this horse dropping back to the minimum for this. He ran an excellent race on his handicap debut at Doncaster and followed that with a solid run last time out at Yarmouth. The drop back to 5f looks as though it will suit and I expect this to be run at a good pace as there are a few front runners in the line up. Jo Hughes is in good form at the moment and did with this race last year with an outsider. The Michael Bell trained horse in this could prove hard to pass having won last time out of which the form has been franked twice. I am happy to take her on here though as I think this could go to something held up off the pace.
Finally a winner! Plutocracy did it a shade comfortably in the end but took time to pick up. Still plenty more to come from him I feel but was subject to a small rule 4 of 5p. I was a little unlucky with Smart Spender as I thought he was coming through to at least challenge for the win but got squeezed out at a vital stage and was instantly eased by Kelly. Can’t say for sure whether he would have won or not but I felt he certainly would have gone very close.
+£375.94
5.30 Newcastle – Sam Nombulist £50 EW @ 20/1 Bet365
This horse ended last year with a career best winning a 16 runner handicap off 81 at Newmarket. He did it nicely that day pulling 4 lengths clear with the 2nd horse and is clearly at home on soft ground. His was well beaten on his reappearance but had valid excuses for that defeat as his usual visor was left off and the ground was much quicker than he wants. Tomorrow the visor is back on and he gets his ground. I tend to find front runners do well at Newcastle when the ground is soft so everything looks in his favour tomorrow. Richard Whitaker is in good form at the moment with the majority of his runners running well. He also shows a good level stakes profit at Newcastle. He looks a big price at 20/1.
3.00 Newcastle – Tectonic £100 win @ 9/2 Bet365
This looks a good opening for Tectonic to get off the mark. He doesn’t have the most encouraging profile but he showed plenty of improvement on his first start for Keith Daglish earlier in the month to finish 2nd. That was his first start for 228 days so he is entitled to come on for that run. The front 3 that day pulled well clear of the field so I would expect this horse to improve again today. The opposition he faces today aren’t exactly the best bunch. If you look at the 2nd favourite Royal Holiday, he did win well last time out but his all weather record is far superior to his turf record. I would happily swerve him today back on turf. Tectonic will have to prove that wasn’t a flash in the pan but as with other Keith Daglish horses that he has taken from other yards, there is every chance he can improve this horse. A repeat of that performance would surely see him go very close. The ground shouldn’t be an issue today and Joe Fanning takes over from Julie Burke, which is another positive.
Don’t waste your hard earned on rubbish midweek racing Whorse! Save it for the weekend!
Don’t waste your hard earned on rubbish midweek racing Whorse! Save it for the weekend!
Cheers mate, I think your right. Been concentrating on revising for my exams in the last couple of weeks but now they are over and I have 4 months off, its time to get down to the real business! Had 2 bets today… will post them up soonish!
1.35 Epsom – Thistle Bird £100 EW @ 4/1 Ladbrokes
A very competitive looking race, which is why I have gone each way on this horse but she looks to hold every chance of winning this. The slight worry is the ground as all of her winning has come on good ground but she has ran well on good to soft in the past so I don’t see her having and problems with it. She has progressed into a very good miler and I think she is ready to for her first group success having previously won multiple listed contests. The stable are in cracking form at the moment and James Doyle is a jockey I really like. She is a very consistent horse and I would be disappointed if she couldn’t at least make the frame. To me she looks by far the most solid bet in the race. She made a very encouraging reappearance at Newmarket in a race won by Dank. That form has been franked by Chigun bolting up over in Ireland and I expect Thistle Bird to win this.
Oaks – Liber Nauticus £140 EW @ 9/2 Ladbrokes
I don’t 100% follow the stats but I do have a quick look at them to see if I can find any angles into certain races. In the Oaks today you would have to be worried in regards to the top 2 in the betting. The draw has not been kind to both and also placed horses form the English Guineas do not have a good record in the Oaks. For that reason I am happy to look elsewhere. The one that stands out to me is Liber Nauticus. Yes she was far from impressive in the Musidora but I thought she won a little more comfortably than many would suggest. She should come on massively for that run and the extra distance today should suit her down to the ground. Since winning on debut, this horse has been at the head of the betting for this race and I don’t see any reason to oppose her. The yard have got off to a flyer this season and I can see this horse giving Mr Stoute his first group 1 for a couple of years. She might not have the kick that some of her opposition possess but I think once she gets into full stride, she will prove very tough to stop. Granted luck in running I think she will be tough to beat. That being said it does look a very open race this year and it wouldn’t be the biggest surprise in the World to see one of the outsiders win but Liver Nauticus looks a very solid each way bet in the race.
Pretty poor decision from the owners of Sri Putra to replace Neil Callan with Frankie today
A little profit made yesterday thanks to Thistle Bird who won nicely in the first race. The Oaks was a strange old race. Secret Gesture ran an absolute cracker but the winner looked very impressive in winning. My selection Liber Nauticus ran well enough but just wasn’t goo enough. Picked out a few for today… Taking on Dawn!
1.35 Epsom – Forging the Path £50 EW @ 7/1 Bet365
All of the runners from this stable ran good races yesterday so I am happy to take my chances with their handicap debutant here. This horse showed massive improvement on his seasonal debut to win a maiden at Thirsk very comfortably. He has been given a rating of 79, which he may be able to exploit. I think there is every chance he has been let in lightly here and he can take full advantage. Ground shouldn’t be an issue and with the stable hitting form yesterday, Forging the Path should go well against some more high profile opposition.
3.15 Epsom – La Fortunata £50 EW @ 14/1 William Hill
Really like this horses chances here. She has gone close over CD a few times in the past so clearly loves it here. Her record over CD reads 2-2-3-4-2 and I see no reason why she won’t run well again. She went very close last time out over CD and would have won had she not drifted across the track. Any further drying of the ground would be a plus. She is well drawn in 6 and has a good 5lb claimer on her back.
4.00 Epsom – Ruler of the World £50 EW @ 8/1 Bet365
I am in the "Dawn Approach might not stay" camp so with that in mind I would rather have a smaller bet on something else each way rather than lump on the favourite. This horse didn’t race last year but has won both starts this year, which included an impressive win at Chester. He is by super sire Galileo and there are clearly no worries about this horse not staying. He should handle the track and he should have come on plenty for this latest win where he still seemed a little green. Impossible to know, which is the best of the O’Brien challengers but this horse will do for me. Ryan Moore rides him, which is another positive.
1.50 Musselburgh – Lazarus Bell £50 EW @ 9/1 BetVictor
Alan Brown has his horses in very good form at the moment and he has a good record at this track. I backed this horse last time out where I thought he was a little unlucky at Haydock. He finished 3rd in the end but could have got much closer with a clear run. I think the step up in trip should suit him and with 8 runners going to post, he looks a solid each way bet. The favourite was very impressive when winning on his handicap debut but this is a better race and he has been raised 10lbs for that win. Lazarus Bell comes in to this race in good form and has twice already ran crackers off this mark in slightly higher grade races. Much rather take this horse each way than back the very short priced favourite.
A little more profit today thanks to Ruler of the World in the Derby. The Richard Fahey horse in the first at Epsom drifted badly before the off and ran accordingly. Lazarus Bell never looked like getting involved in his race and La Fortunata almost clung on to a place. The 1st and 2nd in the race came from an absolute mile back. I fancy one tonight at Newcastle so might back that later on.
3.15 Chantilly – Morandi £100 EW @ 8/1 Ladbrokes
Had my fingers burnt plenty of times last year in French races as you will often find horses finding plenty of trouble but I really fancy this horse tomorrow. He has a cracking draw in 3 and he relishes testing ground. He has encountered heavy ground twice in his career and hacked up both times. He won a group 3 at Longchamp by 12 lengths and followed that with a 7 length victory in a group 1. He is yet to win this season but ran a cracker last time out behind Style Vendome. He didn’t get the clearest of runs that day and the ground was probably quicker than he would want. A return to this trip is a positive and the ground is very much in his favour. Christophe Soumillion takes the ride and everything looks in place for a massive run. His trainer has an excellent recent record in the race saddling the winner in 2009 and having 2 others go close since then.
2.30 Chantilly – White Waves £50 win @ 10/1 Bet365
She may well get outclassed here but fancy her to run well now stepped up in trip. Her run at Longchamp was disappointing as she could only manage a 5th of 8 but she was slowly away that day and finished off her race like a steam train. The step up to a mile here should suit her and she will not have any problems with the ground. Andre Fabre has to be respected with all of his runners and this horse can’t be ignored with connections feeling she can step up to group 2 class. Maxime Guyon is a young jockey I like and granted luck in running this one might be able to cause an upset.
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