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Hi guys, hope it’s okay to start my own little betting diary on here. I wasn’t too sure if anyone can start their own thread or whether you have to be a member on here for a certain amount of time. It’s basically just a place where I can share my thoughts and post my daily selections. I have followed horse racing for several years now but have never really taken the betting side of it too seriously. I have only recently started to really put the time and effort in, which has resulted in a few good days and a few lengthy losing runs.
You all seem far more knowledgeable than me so be gentle. I do intend on keeping a running profit and loss. I won’t be starting with a bank but will just start the thread at 0. Look forward to maybe hearing from some of you in regards to my selections… any constructive criticism is most welcome!
2.15 York – Easy Terms – £50 EW @ 15/2 William Hill
Sir John Hawkwood may well prove very tough to beat here now upped in trip but he is off a 6lb higher mark than for his win at Chester and is also encountering very different ground. He is the most likely winner of the race but may be worth taking on with Easy Terms whose last win came over CD. I have actually backed this horse on both occasions this season but got the feeling at Thirsk they were holding something back with her. James Sullivan certainly didn’t seem too animated on her when all the other jockeys were going hell for leather on their mounts. She travelled well enough into the race but was never really asked any serious questions. In the end she finished just over 4 lengths behind the winner and as a result has dropped a couple of lbs to a mark of 94. That puts her 2lbs higher than when winning this race last year but I think its more than likely that this has been the early season target for her. The race lacks strength in depth and there are certainly question marks over many of her rivals. She goes on any ground and I think she will put up a good performance tomorrow.
4.25 York – Rye House £100 win @ 3/1 PaddyPower
A huge field go to post for this but I would only consider maybe a handful for win purposes. Forget Me Not Lane did all his winning on a sound surface last year, Take Two has a much tougher task here off an 8lb higher mark against better opposition, which leaves me with two horses. I fully expect the David O’Meara trained Awake My Soul to be the main danger to Rye House but I fancy the Stoute inmate to come out on top. Rye House has been off the track for almost a year but connections have stuck with him and he returns in what looks a very winnable race. When last seen he was sent off a short price favourite and only narrowly went down by a head. He kicked a few lengths clear that day only to be collared late on so maybe the drop back in trip today will suit him. He is by Dansili so should relish the ground and he has the main man on board in Ryan Moore. There look to be a few front runners in this (Awake My Soul included) so the race should set up nicely for Rye House. Don’t worry about the absence as I am sure Stoute will have 100% ready for this. He is a little short for this type of race but there is a lot of dead wood in this so I would be hopeful he can get his head in front.
Pleased to get a win on the board. The 3 Stoute horses at York today look so obvious now…hindsight is a wonderful thing! I have 1 more selection for today so will update after its ran or possibly after I have been to see The Great Gatsby.
7.25 Hamilton Mijhaar £100 win @ 4/1 William Hill
This horse is a serial loser and I have probably been on him for every one of them losses. Each run I say to myself he is going to come good and each run he lets me down. Last year I thought the hood was going to work the oracle with him but nope it made no difference. Being gelded however might just do the trick and I would kick myself if I wasn’t on him when he finally got his 2nd career win. I don’t think there is any doubting the horses ability, but he clearly has issues and doesn’t ever give 100%. I am hoping catching him first run back after being gelded might just be the right time for him. The yard are in good form at the moment and they have chosen to replace his usual rider Neil Callan with Andrea Atzeni. He is riding well at the moment and will no doubt be out to impress for such illustrious connections. There a few dangers in the race with Voodoo Prince probably being the main one but I certainly think if he puts 100% in, then he will prove very tough to beat. He races in this off a mark of 103 but I feel he has at least a few more lbs in the tank. Maybe I am deluded with this horse and he just isn’t as good as I think but time will tell and fingers crossed he can finally pay me something back with a win!
Well done, I backed both Mijhaar being a Varian fan and Voodoo Prince who is proving rather inconsistent. A good start to your TRF tipping career!
And I hope you got BOG?!
Thanks and yes I most certainly did… a nice little added bonus
2.05 Newbury – Viking Storm £75 win @ 9/1 Bet365
Harris Tweed has not been in the best of form since winning at Newbury on his return to action last year and with the stable a little out of form, I am happy to take him on. Willing Foe is a talented horse but I still have my doubts in regards to the stable form, which leaves Gallipot as the main danger. She is progressing but will have to improve again to win this. That isn’t out of the question but I don’t think the form of her latest win is that good and I am happy to take a chance on Viking Storm. Viking Storm himself will have to improve but his last 3 runs on turf have all resulted in comfortable victories. The margin of his Doncaster win was just a head but would have been further had he got a clear run. He loves fast ground and shapes as though this extra furlong will really suit. He has had a break of 2 months since running on the all weather, which should have put him spot on for this as his trainer has stated he needs time between races. Hanagan takes the ride, which is a plus and if he can progress again then I can see him getting involved.
3.50 Newbury – Fencing £50 EW @ 10/1 Ladbrokes
I will take my chances with the Gosden horse here against the top 3 in the betting. I think an on song Cityscape would probably win this but I think he may come on for the run as will the Godolphin horse. Farhh ideally wants further but has to be respected considering the only horses that have beaten him in his last 4 runs have been Nathaniel, Frankel and Excelebration. I heard earlier in the week Saeed Bin Suroor said he would come on for the run. Fencing like Mijhaar was gelded over the winter and it looked to have done the job as he won very easily on his first start of the season at Ascot. I don’t think we have yet to see the best of this horse and he could turn into a top class miler this year. He was unlucky at times last year and although he has plenty to find to trouble the principles here, that certainly isn’t out of the question. Today he gets quick ground, which clearly suits him best being by Street Cry and hopefully he will be able to bustle up the top 3. He has race fitness on his side as well which is a positive and I would rather take a chance with him than have to pick out of the top 3.
2.20 Newmarket – Lady Kashaan £50 EW @ William Hill
The presence of Biographer in this field means everything else in the race is carrying very low weights. Lady Kashaan comes here in cracking form after a win first time up at Musselburgh and then an unlucky defeat last time out at Ripon. She is up another 2lbs for that run but there could easily be more to come from her. She looks a throughouly progressive horse when getting good ground having only finished out of the frame once in her last 7 starts. Trainer is in form, which is good but Robert Winston isn’t exactly banging in the winners. He has ridden her both times this year however so hopefully he will give her a good ride. There looks to be plenty of potentially good horses in the race but Lady Kashaan looks as progressive as any and had she been with one of the top trainers, I have no doubts she would have been shorter.
Disappointing day yesterday as nothing even looked liked getting involved in their respective races. Godolphin are well and truly back in the groove, which is good to see. Hopefully will do a little better today!
+£480
1.40 Kranji – Hunter’s Light £50 EW @ 8/1 William Hill
I don’t think its completely necessary that this horse has to be prominent in a race to win as he has proved in the past he can come from behind. That is more than likely going to be the case today as he is drawn wide in 10 and SDS will do well to get anywhere near the front from there. He does have to put a poor run in the Dubai World Cup behind him but SBS said the surface was looser than normal on the night which didn’t suit. I certainly don’t think he gave his true running in the race and is worth another chance. He does have prove he can transfer his form to turf but he has won recent group races on turf on very differing ground. I don’t think he wants it too fast but the ground in Singapore should be perfect racing ground. He will do well to win from 10 but its not out of the question and connections have won this race before. He may still be on the improve and with Godolphin’s runners now in form, he could run a big race. The best drawn horse from the top of the betting is Military Attack who comes in to this on the back of a huge win in the QE2. He did get the run of the race that day so it will be interesting to see how he does in this if every horse gets a clear run. I think he could be the main danger to Hunter’s Light given his good draw but Pastorious is another one that should go well despite his wide draw. He won very well on his seasonal debut at Longchamp and he is a massive danger to all. Don’t think Red Cadeaux can win but he will probably be staying on late in the day and could nick a place.
So frustrating as I talked myself out of the obvious one Military Attack.
3.10 Ripon – Misplaced Fortune £50 EW @ 7/1 PaddyPower
The 3 year olds will do well to win this but there is no doubting their ability. The one I like is the Nigel Tinkler trained Misplaced Fortune who has such a good record in this race. He was twice won the race and finished 4th the other time. He made an encouraging reappearance at Pontefract in a strong race won by York Glory and he should come on plenty for the run. Taking into account Jason Hart’s claim he is his last winning mark so could go well. He will have been trained with this race in mind and hopefully the ground won’t be too soft.
8.50 Leicester – Plutocracy £150 win @ 11/8 PaddyPower
This will hopefully be pretty straightforward for this horse to follow up here. He was an impressive winner at Windsor on his return to action and should prove tough to beat in this. He has the scope to rate much better than his current mark of 75 and with the yard in great form at the moment, I see no reason to oppose him in this. There are a couple of handicap debutants that are interesting but they will have to be pretty smart to beat Plutocracy.
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