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Buckingham Palace – Mezzotint £100 EW @ 25/1 Bet365
This horse has improved again this year and his latest run behind Nocturn was particularly impressive. He was looking for room and travelling best of all at one point in the race and finished well once getting the gaps. Had he got a clear run he may have won the race. He has only had a couple of starts over 7f but he is bred for this sort of trip rather than 6f so I can see him improving for the step up in distance. The big field should suit and he is drawn in the middle so the jockey will have to make a decision on which way to go with him. Martin Harley takes the ride and he will be buzzing after grabbing a winner in the last yesterday. The form of that Nocturn race has already been boosted by Whozthecat and Nocturn is very well fancied for the Wokingham tomorrow. A repeat of Mezzotint’s run in that race would surely see him go close. His hold up style will require luck in running but hopefully he will get the gaps at the right times and put in a good run.
I think I have learnt some valuable Royal Ascot lessons this week. Don’t back anything in the first race and don’t touch the big field handicaps! That being said I will be having a go on the Wokingham tomorrow so I probably need 1 more defeat to ram these lessons home!
Hardwicke Stakes – Sir John Hawkwood £100 EW @ 17/2 BetVictor
This is a horse I really like and he looks a typical Stoute horse. He only won his last race by a head from Hanoverian Baron but it came only 8 days after his win at Chester and on completely different ground. He is versatile when it comes to ground but I feel he is better on a sounder surface. He is unexposed over the trip but I feel we are yet to see the best of him. I think there will be plenty of pace in this race with the likes of Universal, Ekhtihaam and Mount Athos all wanting to be prominent, which could just set it up SJH.
Good thread Whorse, an enjoyable read and some very good bets!
I think most of us on here will have to learn something from this week
Good thread Whorse, an enjoyable read and some very good bets!
I think most of us on here will have to learn something from this week
Thanks, much appreciated. Heres hoping for a profitable last day!
Wokingham – Mass Rally £100 EW @ 20/1 Bet365
I do fear he may be on the wrong side but I will take my chances nonetheless. I have to say he is one of my favourite handicappers despite his very poor strike rate. He has just 2 wins from 31 starts on turf but you when you look into his form the first of them wins came just 6 runs ago so he has only just learnt how to get his head in front. Prior to finally getting that win, he often would come there absolutely cruising only to not go through his effort. He seems to be over that now as he has proven with his 2 wins. He has clearly built up a good partnership with Paul Mulrennan and he comes into this on the back of a very good win at York. The form of that race has been franked several times by the likes of Nocturn, Prodigality and York Glory and the conditions of the race will surely suit him. Big field handicaps are what this horse wants and he will obviously need plenty of luck in running given his style of running. Don’t be surprised to see this horse absolutely hacking away on the bridle even a furlong out but much will depend on whether or not he is on the right side of the track or wether he gets the gaps. If everything falls right for him, he does have the talent to take advantage.
Duke of Edinburgh – Caravan Rolls On £200 EW @ 8/1 Hills & Ladbrokes
This is my best bet of the day so fingers crossed he goes ones better than today’s who finished a gallant 2nd. I have backed this horse a few times in the past and he has done me plenty of favours. He also put me through absolute hell when finishing an unlucky 5th in the Mallard at Doncaster last year but I am going to go in again on him tomorrow in the hope he has a little more luck in running. I have no doubts this horse would have won the Mallard quite comfortably had he got a clear run through and that came off a rating of 93. He races off 95 in this race so I feel he is still well ahead of the handicapper. I thought he looked in need of the race last time out at Newmarket when finishing a close up 4th but that should have brought him on and put him spot on for this. The form of that race has been boosted by the 3 that finished ahead of him. I haven’t been too impressed with Jamie Spencer recently but he had a much better day today so hopefully he will give this horse a confident ride. The other one I like in the race is Lahaag he ran a cracker at York to pull well clear with the eventual winner First Mohican. I would expect Lahaag to be thereabouts at the finish but I am going to take Caravan Rolls On to win this.
The above bet on Caravan Rolls On is not £200 EW with both bookies but is £200 EW in total spread across the 2 bookies… just to be clear!
Queen Alexandra Stakes – Shahwardi £200 win @ 7/2 William Hill
No Simenon to contend with this year and this was easily 2nd best in the race last year. No doubt this will have been the target so you can excuse his latest run. Looks a pretty weak race in which only a handful can be given a chance so I will take a chance with the French horse.
Not the greatest of betting weeks for me last week. Came out of it about level pegging, which wasn’t the worst result in the World considering some of the results. A couple of things I learnt from last week are not to bet in the 2 year old races and not to bet in the big field handicaps where there is a strong possibility of them splitting into 2. I don’t think there is a worse feeling than winning your race on your side but still finishing well behind of the other side.
In terms of what I picked out, I don’t think I was a million miles away although my handicap bets were pretty poor. Sky Lantern was a highlight given how well she won and the week could have been saved had Shawhardi won the last. Still plenty of good racing to come so going to have a look now I have finally recovered from last week.
+£610.94
4.00 Newcastle Amazing Blue Sky £100 EW @ 4/1 Bet365
This horse looks to be working his way back into form and has ran well on his last 2 runs. He looks by far the most solid option in what looks a very winnable race. Newcastle is a track that suits front runners and he should go well even if he doesn’t get an easy lead. Don’t like the jockey but he looks a solid each way bet.
Anyone have any information on when we might be seeing Hydrogen in action? I have a couple of ante-post wagers on this horse (win a group 1 win this year at 8/1 and win the Derby next year at 50/1). I am guessing he will be out towards the end of this season.
Northumberland Plate – Moidore £100 EW @ 14/1 Bet365
Really like this ones chances on Saturday. Any more rain is a plus and his latest run behind Well Sharp at York looks a very good once considering how far ahead of the handicapper that horse was on the day.
8.50 Hamilton – Bonnie Charlie £50 EW @ 9/1 Ladbrokes
I have a good look at this race and I do fancy this horse despite running for a stable I can never get right. A mate of mine said he received a tip for Findog in the race but I don’t fancy that one at all although it has been well backed all day. Will kick myself if that wins but I would rather go with my own selection so Bonnie Charlie will do. He has been in good form of late and ran a cracker last time out at York. Had he got a clear run, he would have gone very close to winning a competitive 6f handicap. This should be run to suit with a couple of front runners in opposition and Paul Quinn has built up a good partnership with this horse. The form of his win a few outings ago has been franked and I can see him running well in this if getting the gaps.
Wasn’t the worst run in the World from Bonnie Charlie. He was slowly away and had to make his challenge widest of all. In the end he lost out on a place by a shoulder from the fast finishing Sir Pedro. Should have left the race alone.
3.35 Doncaster – Royal Guinevere £200 win @ 9/4 Hills
I like the look of the Dean Ivory horse in this race who looks set to be suited by the step up in trip today. He won very nicely on his handicap debut at Nottingham over 5f and has since followed that with a couple of decent efforts at Windsor and Goodwood. Both times he appeared to get outpaced before staying on again at the finish. I think a return to 6f on this track will very much suit. A big positive is the booking of Richard Hughes for this horse who has a very good record when teaming up with Dean Ivory. Not the biggest fan of betting in races where some of the runners are making their handicap debuts but Royal Guinevere sets a fair standard and should improve for the step up in trip so he will do for me.
Well that was slightly disappointing. Winner got first run and although my selection picked up well towards the finish, he never looked like getting there.
Already backed Moidore tomorrow but I like another 2.
4.45 Curragh – Harry Trotter £50 EW @ 20/1 BetVictor
This was pretty easy to sort out as there are only 30 runners but I do like the chances of Harry Trotter. The horse is clearly in good form and was very unlucky over CD a couple of runs ago as he never got a run. His only previous run over CD resulted in a win so he does like it here. David Marnane has put up a young 7lb claimer, which can help offset some of his weight. He will require a lot of luck in running given how many runners there are but if he gets a clear run he should run well.
3.50 Newcastle – Diescentric £200 win @ 5/1 BetVictor
I backed this horse at a tasty 16/1 when he won last time out. That was a competitive handicap but he won it comfortably in the end once getting the gap. He showed a very smart turn of foot and if he can reproduce that effort, he will surely go close in this. He does have a rise in the weights to overcome but I believe he can do so if he gets a good pace to run at.
Irish Derby – Festive Cheer £25 EW @ 25/1 Ladbrokes
Ran a very good trial for the Derby in France but didn’t give his true running at Epsom. On a more conventional track he may just show his true colours. Could sneak a place at a big price for a jockey who has won this race a few times in recent years.
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