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Montbazon and Thornton are probably saying "Look at that twat over there"
I thought you were there as I tripped over something that resembled a Dwarf in the stands,he had his step ladders with him too!
Gord why you put FLYING OFFICER in list when i asked your thoughts on him it seem like you did not rate him.
Darren,just because I dont rate him doesn’t mean he wont run,I selected a group of potential runners to test Ginge………..He failed miserably,if he’d gone 2/1
Mars
,I would have respected the effort but No he couldn’t even do that………Poor show!
If you done a book on racingpost trophy what be your odds
And will you be betting on SEVILLE in melbourne cup or will you leave him alone he may win it
3413-
Afonso de Sousa
, A,P,O’Brien
3111-
Battle of Marengo
,A.P,O’Brien
1-
Chief Inspector
, B,Meehan
115-
Fantastic Moon
, J,Noseda
1-
Flying Officer
, J,Gosden
151-
Ghurair
, J,Gosden
1-
Kerbaaj
, C, Hills
1-
Mars
, A,P,O’Brien
11-
Montiridge
, R,Hannon
1211-
Steeler
, M,Johnston
21-
Telescope
, M,Stoute
21-
Trading Leather
, J,Bolger
111-
Toronado
, R,Hannon
There you go Darren,its a piece of P*ss to price a race but to suggest that anything there is ‘Value’ is purely down to ones own opinion!
Ginge I selected 13 horses from the 92 declared and you come out with every excuse in the book as to why you cant create a Book!!
I knew damn well you couldn’t do it because you haven’t got anything to copy from,had I asked you to Price the Grand National,surprise,surprise you could have done it because even though the bookmakers dont have a clue as to which will turn up there either,they have still formed a Book on it,bit like every other Ante-Post race out there. Oh Dear you have been exposed as a fake and a Charlatan!What do you expect me to do TAPK? Spend two hours working out a mythical race, just to
please you
? The prices
wouldn’t mean a thing
and could
not be judged
because it is a
mythical
race. If I did as you say,
how
would it be judged? With some horses not included and some that probably won’t run… Every horse’s chance is influenced by the next, so the non-runners and ones you’ve missed out –
matter
. So the exercise won’t be of
any use
even when Racing Post Trophy day comes along. Surely you could come up with a more
useful
idea?
Did you
truly
have any intension of genuinely wanting to come up with a
fair
process TAPK? Or did you just want an
excuse
to accuse me of being a "
cheat
" a "
fake
" and "
charlatan
"! May be you could’ve asked or suggested (instead of demanded) something like…
Where the going is in no danger of changing (ie a going change would naturally change the prices from the time of writing)… Choose an ordinary race (that I am actually interested in betting in, so won’t be a waste of time on my part). Start working on it immediately after the final decs are known. ie around 11:00am two days before race time. I should therefore have my prices before any bookmaker has gone up. If it is only a 5 or 6 runner affair it shouldn’t take long to produce a 100% book. It would also be much easier to judge…
But no, you just wanted some task which was
impossible to judge
.
Is it jealousy?EDIT:
MAY I SUGGEST ANYONE READING THIS FOR THE FIRST TIME GOES TO PAGE 124, WHERE I PRODUCED A 100% BOOK BEFORE ANY BOOKMAKERS OR EXCHANGES WENT UP WITH PRICES.Value Is Everything3413-
Afonso de Sousa
, A,P,O’Brien
3111-
Battle of Marengo
,A.P,O’Brien
1-
Chief Inspector
, B,Meehan
115-
Fantastic Moon
, J,Noseda
1-
Flying Officer
, J,Gosden
151-
Ghurair
, J,Gosden
1-
Kerbaaj
, C, Hills
1-
Mars
, A,P,O’Brien
11-
Montiridge
, R,Hannon
1211-
Steeler
, M,Johnston
21-
Telescope
, M,Stoute
21-
Trading Leather
, J,Bolger
111-
Toronado
, R,Hannon
There you go Darren,its a piece of P*ss to price a race but to suggest that anything there is ‘Value’ is purely down to ones own opinion!
Ye right Gord. Your try at working out a 100% book is working to 147.9%.
You have no idea.
Value Is EverythingIs it jealousy?
OH MY GOD
You’ve sussed me out Ginge!
YES I’M JEALOUS OF YOU
and your unique and consistent formula of finding winners,I dont know a Percentage from a Pommiegranite! I thought ‘Value’ was shopping at ‘Lidl’,I cant even afford ‘Timeform,’ so theres no chance of having a ‘Saver’ on the second top rated either.What we should do is a joint thread together,we could rule the world,we could call it something like ‘Beauty and the Beast’!
Is it jealousy?
OH MY GOD
You’ve sussed me out Ginge!
YES I’M JEALOUS OF YOU
and your unique and consistent formula of finding winners,I dont know a Percentage from a Pommiegranite! I thought ‘Value’ was shopping at ‘Lidl’,I cant even afford ‘Timeform,’ so theres no chance of having a ‘Saver’ on the second top rated either.What we should do is a joint thread together,we could rule the world,we could call it something like ‘Beauty and the Beast’!
I am looking for an explanation to your hostility TAPK. Jealousy is one possibility, your recent bereavement and personal problems another. Must have effected your mood. But frankly am getting pissed off with your attitude towards me.
Hope your long losing run comes to an end soon. May be if you got Timeform, you’d be able to afford Timeform.
Value Is EverythingWhat an idiot
Gordon is not an idiot Bruce, like many punters he just does not understand the subject of odds and percentages.
Read carefully Gordon.
ODDS AND PERCENTAGES (THE MATHEMATICS)
Every punter knows for every £ he / she stakes on a 3/1 winner, he gets £4 returned (winning £3 plus £1 stake back).
For every 100 bets of level stakes at 3/1 a punter must win 25 to break even (25 X 4 = 100). Staking 100 points and getting 100 back. If he wins more than 25 he will make a profit, less than 25 will result in a loss. Therefore, 25% = fair odds of 3/1. So a punter should only back a 3/1 shot if he BELIEVES it has a better than 25% chance of winning.Gamblers want to know “who’s going to win”? But they should not necessarily back the horse with “the best chance of winning”. The important question is “in your opinion, which horse/s is/are VALUE to win”?
Bookmakers stay in business by betting to an over-round figure. In a four horse race with a competitive market he may offer:
A 11/8 (42.1%)
B 2/1 (33.3%)
C 100/30 (23.1%)
D 11/1 (8.3%).
42.1 + 33.3 + 23.1 + 8.3 = 106.8%
Working to 106.8% for a theoretical profit of 6.8%.If a bookmaker works to less than 100% a punter could back all runners and make a profit whoever won. If it were dead 100% a punter could back all runners and break even… Hence why bookmakers add a mark up (profit margin).
Yet betting is all about opinions, bookmakers prices might not be right. A bookmaker’s mark up for any individual horse can be as little as 0.5% and rarely more than 3% from what they consider its “fair” odds. So it should be possible for knowledgeable punters to pick out a horse/s under-estimated by bookmakers. If after studying form of the race above a punter believes:
A has a 40% 6/4 chance of winning.
B 30% almost 9/4
C 20% 4/1
D 10% 9/1
All four adding up to 100%.Comparing the punters prices to bookmakers; the only horse at a better price (value) with bookmakers is D at 11/1. D is the only possible bet, despite in the punters own opinion having the worst chance of winning. Quarter of A’s chance, a third of B’s and half of C. With a 10% strike rate at 11/1 showing a profit.
Where as a 40% strike rate at 11/8, 30% at 2/1 and 20% at 100/30 all result in a loss.In the race above: Had better than 6/4 been available about "A" then he’d have been the bet. Had "B" been better than 9/4 he’d be the bet; and "C" at better than 4/1… Had "D" been only available at 9/1 or shorter he would not have been backed.
Even if a punter does not want to work out a race to 100%, knowing the table, seeing each price as a percentage and vice versa helps to find value.
To calculate the percentage each price is worth, add a point and divide 100 by that figure.
So 3/1 = 3 + 1 = 4, 100 ‘/, 4 = 25, therefore 3/1 = 25%
100/30 = 3.33 + 1 = 4.33, 100 ‘/, 4.33 = 23.1, therefore 100/30 = 23.1%
And so on”.
For odds in decimals (what you see on Betfair or Tote) there is no need to add the 1, just divide 100 by the figure.
So 3/1 = 4.00, 100 ‘/, 4.00 = 25. Therefore 3/1 = 25%Another alternative is: First figure + second figure = resultant figure. Second figure ‘/, resultant figure = final figure x 100.
So 100/30 = 100 + 30 = 130, 30 ‘/, 130 = 0.231 x 100 = 23.1, So 100/30 = 23.1%Here are the prices and their percentages (fair or “true” odds). Punters should memorise these figures.
Evens 50
, 21/20 48.8,
11/10 47.6
, 6/5 45.5,
5/4 44.4
, 11/8 42.1,
6/4 40
, 13/8 38.1,
7/4 36.4
, 15/8 34.8,
2/1 33.3
, 85/40 32,
9/4 30.8
, 5/2 28.6,
11/4 26.7
, 3/1 25,
100/30 23.1
, 7/2 22.2,
4/1 20
, 9/2 18.2,
5/1 16.7
, 11/2 15.4,
6/1 14.3
, 13/2 13.3,
7/1 12.5
, 15/2 11.7,
8/1 11.1
, 17/2 10.5,
9/1 10
, 10/1 9.1,
11/1 8.3
, 12/1 7.7,
13/1 7.1
, 14/1 6.7,
15/1 6.2
, 16/1 5.9,
18/1 5.3
, 20/1 4.8,
22/1 4.3
, 25/1 3.8,
28/1 3.4
, 33/1 3,
40/1 2.4
, 50/1 2,
66/1 1.5
, 80/1 1.2,
100/1 1
, 132/1 0.75,
150/1 0.6
6, 200/1 0.5,
250/1 0.4
, 300/1 0.33,
400/1 0.25
, 500/1 0.2,
800/1 0.125
, 1000/1 0.1,
2000/1 0.05
For odds-on percentages, subtract the odds-against equivalent from 100.
So for 4/6, 6/4 = 40% , 100 – 40 = 60, therefore 4/6 = 60%Obviously for an Evens shot to be a good bet a punter must BELIEVE it to have a better than 50% chance of winning, 21/20 48.8%, 11/10 47.6% and so on (see above). Though a margin for error should be factored in. No gambler is 100% accurate, so it is best not to back what you consider a fair 20% 4/1 shot at 9/2 but to do so at 5/1 or more (an even bigger price may be wise for inexperienced odds compilers).
Value Is EverythingI knew damn well you couldn’t do it because you haven’t got anything to copy from,
Gordon,
There is no point myself or any other punter "copy"ing bookmakers prices. Bookmakers prices include a mark up, so the whole race adds up tomore
than 100%.
When a punter prices a race up he/she is not trying to replicate the bookmaker, the punter actively wants to come to a different opinion. He/she
must
also
only work to 100%
(or less if wanting a built in "margin for error"). Otherwise a profit will
not
be made. Working races out to more than 100% (like your 147.9%) will not show a profit and is a waste of time.
If
a bookmaker’s odds compiler believes all five horses in a five horse race have the same chance of winning, then all five have (in his opinion) a 20% chance of winning (
100 ‘/, 5 = 20
). So the odds compiler believes the fair odds for all horses is 4/1, because if it were possible to back all 5 horses at 4/1 a punter could stake the same amount on each horse and get back what he’d put on. Therefore the
bookmaker
will
add a mark up
and offer 7/2 for each horse.
So the bookmaker offers…
A 7/2 22.2%
B 7/2 22.2%
C 7/2 22.2%
D 7/2 22.2%
E 7/2 22.2%
TheBookmaker
is working to
111%
(5 X 22.2) where as the
punter
needs his prices to add up to
100%
(or less).
So
How
do you think I can just "
copy
" the bookmaker and make a profit? If I
copy
the bookmaker and estimate all horse’s
fair
chance at
20% 4/1
, then there’d be absolutely
NO REASON
to take
7/2
about any horse. Because at level stakes a
20% strike rate @ 7/2 would show a LOSS
.
It is
impossible
to make a profit by "
copy
"ing bookmakers. In fact to be
worth backing anything
a punter
must disagree
with bookmakers.
Your accusation just does not make sense!
a) Copying bookmakers doesnot
produce a profit.
b) I make aprofit
so can
not
be accused of
copying
bookmakers.
Value Is EverythingAm I the only one who think’s this guy is
not
Brucey, rather a different ghost from the past?
Yes Tommy, the Mr in the username maybe a clue.
I dont think it is a dwarf either more a midget.
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
Edited by Ginge
QUOTE:
Tue Aug 28, 2012 11:12 am
Didn’t do too well at Goodwood, partly unlucky, partly my own poor work/study.Had some other bad news today:
Dear Mr Chapman,
Your StanJames.com username is – (EDIT xxxxxxx).
All Stan James accounts are reviewed on a regular basis by our Trading team, and due to betting patterns on this account the decision has been made to close it.
I would make you aware that this decision has been made at the highest level and will not be reversed. Any open bets will be honoured, and any outstanding balance will be returned to you via your normal withdrawal method.
Kind regards,
John.
The Stan James Team.
My first actual closure of an account. Stan James had limited me to winning £100 a bet for some time. Will continue to quote Stan James top prices for TRF members to get on, even if I myself will need to find an alternative bookmaker.
It’s a strange feeling of pride and disappointment.
END QUOTE.For a lot of my telephone accounts every bet I have goes to a trader who says yes, no or only so much. So yes, I do get "knocked back". There are some prices on my thread that I can not take myself, it is a TIPPING THREAD and is NOT what I "CLAIM" to put on. I also have other bets which are not on the thread at all, often very late usually on betfair and on course selections.
Anyone can put a couple of zero’s on to their actual stake when putting up bets in Pounds.
I prefer points which are less vulgar, where each point can be an amount the reader wishes.Unlike some, I’ve never claimed to make an enormous amount of money. Even quoted Dave Nevison who said something like "there are professional gamblers who make millions in this game and those ON A LAVATORY CLEANER’S WAGE"… and admitted that "I am of the latter variety, if that". Is that being "bigheaded"? I am lucky enough to own my own house without a mortgage, don’t like gadgets, possessions mean nothing to me, have no debts, some savings, no dependants and very few overheads… I don’t need to make a great deal to "make a living". I’ve gradually increased stakes and frequency of bets and plan on doing so again.
So… if I told you what I make in a year, yes, you would probably laugh, but it’s enough for me.
Value Is Everything
Is it jealousy?
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