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If that was what you were trying to point out then that is perfectly valid, for all that I don’t agree with your conclusion.
Another way of looking at this is that, while Kingsfort and Chabal lack experience, they have had only one run each in which to get to the usual level of a National Stakes winner (and failed). The way I look at it, Alfred Nobel has had five opportunities and has also failed.
I find it at least as plausible that Kingsfort will find the 15 lb of improvement needed to win an average running of this race after one easy win than that Alfred Nobel will find the 6 lb needed after five runs in which there has not latterly seemed to be much to spare.
We will, as they say, see.
Meh i wouldnt say this is a average renewal….last years was worse and we all know how that bunch of 2yr olds went on to do this year.
Irish 2yr olds are going through a different routine every year now….a couple of years ago every Potential horse would have had 3-5 runs now at most have a run max of 4 depending on there build.
I think Chabal/Kingsfort are Group 1 winners.
Also in the Maiden the newcomer form the Prendergast yard is also Crystal Gal is been muted as another very good filly for the trainer and has a entry for the fillies mile which is very good indication that she could well be pretty decent
Boom Crystal Gal won snug enough despite Heff barging her around the place. Another very good performance to beat the colts and looks another Group Class filly.
Bolgers and AOB horses ran well but Ferdinand Magellan looked pretty useless on that showing….Jan
had a nice debut there 
.1/4 or sumfing in a maiden at Gowran beckons for that animal
Yeah Ferdinand Magellan was appalling. Wouldn’t be rushing to back Jan on that evidence either. At least I can knock him off my list.
Not sure what to make of the National Stakes. Surely Beethoven’s proximity and the fact that Chabal ran just last week doesn’t shine too favourably on the form.
I have my doubts, it must be said. Kingsfort will certainly go into the Guineas as a trends horse if he doesn’t run against this year.
Edit – Just seen the race. Come off it, slow pace and a sprint finish. Ffs Beethoven’s finished 3rd beaten only 1 1/2 lengths. Chabal without a shadow of a doubt the one to take out of the race but surely won’t have enough pace for a Guineas.
Its difficult, isn’t it, trying to pick next year’s Classic winners based on their 2yo performances?
If they are too impressive it increases the likelihood that they are just precocious, and won’t develop commensurately over the winter.
This is where we need the help of people who are good at judging horse flesh.
Please step forward Fist, Reet etc.
Anyway, this is what KP said afterwards
"He could go to Newmarket (for the Guineas) but he’s a big, raw horse and he won’t run again this year."
So, there is expectation that a fair amount of growth and development will take place.
I must say I found it an amusing thought earlier today that some classic contenders are just about to be put away for the winter, whilst another group are only just about to step onto the racetrack fro the first time.
When Sea The Stars won the Beresford last year the first three distances were 1/2, sh, nk and they took 15.2 seconds for the extra furlong compared with the Goffs Million (c&g).
As Francome was pointing out before the race, the jockeys would be looking after the horses for next year, and whilst he was mainly referring to the finish, it would also apply to not going too fast in the Soft ground.
That’s not to say that Chabal isn’t a better prospect than Kingsfort, but Kingsfort has become the adopted horse of this thread, sort of.
I think the top 2 in the National are very good…i cant ask for much more than that.
Kingsfort nearly died of a Leg Infection after his maiden win according to the trainer so that was a very good performance to get him back to win a Group 1.
They finished in a heap but you cant quicken in ground like that….
Artic stills looks a horse of immense promise aswell.
If Arctic were to take on Dick Turpin in the Mill Reef next Saturday, that would be quite juicy.
Missed Al Zir’s win at Doncaster yesterday. I did try to find it on Racing UK but it wasn’t shown.
Bugger!
Thats because Doncaster is an ATR track. The replay will be on the attheraces replay site.
Missed Al Zir’s win at Doncaster yesterday. I did try to find it on Racing UK but it wasn’t shown.
Bugger!
Thats because Doncaster is an ATR track. The replay will be on the attheraces replay site.
Ahh, so that’s where I went wrong
Many thanks for your guidance 
- Total Posts 17716
Its difficult, isn’t it, trying to pick next year’s Classic winners based on their 2yo performances?
If they are too impressive it increases the likelihood that they are just precocious, and won’t develop commensurately over the winter.
This is where we need the help of people who are good at judging horse flesh.
Please step forward Fist, Reet etc.
Anyway, this is what KP said afterwards
"He could go to Newmarket (for the Guineas) but he’s a big, raw horse and he won’t run again this year."
So, there is expectation that a fair amount of growth and development will take place.
I must say I found it an amusing thought earlier today that some classic contenders are just about to be put away for the winter, whilst another group are only just about to step onto the racetrack fro the first time.
Kingsfort certainly looks a bit green still and may run in the Guineas but running in the Guineas and winning it is 2 completely different things.
I was never a fan of Afred Noble nor of Steinbeck and I think by AOB standards they are pretty ordinary.
To be honest I was surprised they made Alfred Noble so short and if Kingsfort was that special I think he would have went off in that role.
In short I really don’t think the race was good enough to start talking Guineas even if the bookies make him as short as 6/1. They would make anything that shines fav at this stage to try and get a few extra shillings in.
Sometimes it doesn’t matter what a horse beats but the way he beats them make you sit up and take notice. For me Kingfort did nothing out of the ordinary and beat nothing that would make me rush off to back him.
One that does stand out visually and is a far better horse in my humble opinion, who if he would have run in that race would have destroyed the lot of them is Tracey Collins’s
Artic
. He beat Air Chief Marshall like he was a selling plater over 6f, barely out of a canter and wouldn’t see Kingfort in his way. His trainer shaares the opinion of most good judges that he will get 7f next year but 1m might be beyond him. I don’t know the plans for the horse but he is entered for the Mill Reef 6f on Saturday I wouldn’t be opposing him with Arcano or Showcasing of they all run especially if there’s a bit of cut in the ground.
Overall as far as 2 year olds are concerned I still the Canford Cliffs is the best I’ve seen for as far back as I can remember. Richard Hannon has handles some cracking horses in his time but reckons none of them hold a candle to him and he only lokes him about half as much as Hughsie does.
Sure he flopped in France but in hindsight Hannon shouldn’t have ran him. I don’t like critising the man as he trains his way and is very successful but if CC was with AOB, SMS or Kingsfort’s trainer he would have probably been roughed off right after Ascot. He’s a beast of a horse and they need all the time they can get to mature. They might look tough but they are probably bigger babies than horses who as less in stature.
I honestly thought, and I wasn’t alone, that RH had lost the plot completely when he spoke about running him yet again. Thankfuly that’s not going to happen and if this horse does well between 2 and 3 I think the Guineas is a foregone conclusion. Many may have lost faith in the horse but Hughsie very seldom gets carried away and the man clearly stated the horse wasn’t himself in France yet he was beaten only inches.
The trip may concern some but at Ascot he was going faster than everthing around him and taking 4 strides to their 5 and yanking Hughsies arm out at the same time. Most horses that fight as much as he did that day wouldn’t be able to raise a gallop after 4 furlongs but he quickened like a shot and was only just starting to run when the race was over. Hopefully by next season he will have matured and got the silly billy antics out of his young head and then I expect to see something more special than we have seen in a very long time. Hughsie says he’s a freak and I’m still with him on that score. Horse cost me alot of money last time but I’ve been backing him at 12,s md 10.s since and fully expect him to reimburse me in full with a bit on top.
The Derby is always a lot more difficult to work out and most years finding one that will actually run is hard enough. I certainly wouldn’t have thought of Sea the Stars having only beaten Mourayan and I doubt if even John Oxx knew what he had on his hands.
One horse who did catch my eye to such an extent I immediately PM ‘s Gord (TAPK) and asked him what he thought. At least after I had backed him for the Derby I did.
I see a couple of the guys also saw him and liked what they saw. He’s trained by some guy called Aiden from Ireland but forget his surname
More obvious than I thought the bookies made him fav and for once I can’t blame them. St Nicholas Fairway looks an awesome propect and as I said to gord at the time he looks like Mastercraftsman with wings. He’s a lovely mover, well balanced and a terific turn of foot.
Coordinated Cut the current fav on the otherhand didn’t impress me one bit. He can obviously go a bit but how did he become fav. The truth is someone stuck 4 grand on the horse which started the ball rolling and when he came out and won an average maiden that was enough to have all the bookies jump on the band wagon with Corals. His race was all but the slowest run race of the day and while impressive to look at he was far from impressive with a wow factor in the race. He like St Nick is entered in the Royal Lodge and if they both turned up I know which I would be backing. Big horse, lots of scope but there’s a huge gap to cross between a slow 6k maiden and the Derby and I doubt if this horse will make it.
Chabal shaped well the other day and looked like he could be a good middle distance horse but he also looked very forward. It could be what he is is what he is and won’t be much more than that as a 3yo. I’d be more interested in the horse of John Oxx’s Behtarini who finished 2nd to him and lookee a loss less furnished. Looks a good long term prospect.
That horse is called ST Nicholas Abbey not fairway.And i think it will win the Derby next year as well.
3 horses i backed for 2000 guineas are Showcasing,Kingsfort and Steinbeck.
On Steinbeck any idea when he be racing again.
What do you guys think of the market for the 1000 guineas and Oaks.I backed Lillie Langtry in the 1000.And Cabaret for the Oaks.
had a nice debut there 
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