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Right i think its obvious Alfred Nobel will go for the National Stakes and prob win it but the real story is how well Bolgers preform up in class aswell as Kingsfort. There seems to be a lot of confidence behind him around The local area. The ground is also drying out so it wont be completely bottomless. Wait until the market forms but i probaly back The unexposed horse in Kingsfort giving the likely hood he be about 2/1+….i see Paddy Power has already cut the O Brien animal from 9/4 into 7/4.
The Champagne is a desperate race for me….where are all the British Runners. It going to be very hard to assess the form of it other than Silver Grecian. Its going to be hard to imagine which one Murtagh will ride this far out but i imagine it will be either one the Giants Causeway Sons…Maybe Viscount Nelson but i just have a naggy feeling this Await The Dawn is a horse they like a lot.
Anyhoo its a good few days ahead
O’Brien said Viscount Nelson is the likely Champagne runner.
As for the National Stakes market, it’s disgusting. I made a point on either this thread or the one in the Big Race section that 20 once-raced horses have run in the National Stakes between 1995 and 2008, 19 of them were sent-off at 13/2 or bigger, with both winners (Sinndar and Refuse to Bend) 7/1 shots.
Darwin is the 20th horse, sent off the 4/9 favourite for O’Brien and was duly unplaced.
So quite frankly, and whether he wins or not is irrelevant, Kingsfort is probably the worst value bet I’ve seen all year.
It is desperate price but how and ever. Mind you only 3 at most will be in at the finish and after Termagent win i have confidence that he be ready for the day.
Whether or not he is good enough will be answered when Viscount Nelson runs 2 hours before
I’m feeling pretty proud that a horse from my list of 20 odd from the 400 Derby entries has now been backed into joint-favouritism before he’s even seen a racecourse. I’ve just got £6 on at 33s but given that he’s now 25s in just 3 places and 20s everywhere else, I’ve done pretty well I think.
Actually add Chabal to that as well, he’s been another on my list for a couple of months.
I’m a very smart cookie and took a note of the original Middle Park entries so I know exactly what’s been taken out. Nothing major as it happens, bar Canford Cliffs. Vita Venturi, a nice looking Bolger colt who could be a Derby horse, has been removed. Monsieur Chevalier’s also gone.
Definitely worth keeping an eye out for Aultcharn, Fighting Brave and Rodrigo De Torres. The former and latter could be very good sprinters for next year (notable that RDT’s been moved from Alan Jarvis to Cecil) and Fighting Brave continues to catch my attention through his entries. He was down to run in the maiden that Kingsfort won. I presume he picked up a slight niggle hence his withdrawal and subsequent disappearing act.
The Fillies’ Mile and Cheveley Park entries have also been updated as it happens and I’ve managed to get my 1000 Guineas shortlist down to a very shortlist indeed. Too short, I think.
Cojo
Conniption
Foolish Ambition
Jeanie Johnston
Kithonia
Lady Darshaan
Lady Of The Desert
Mudaaraah
Sent From Heaven
Seta (being slightly generous on the foaling date side)
Shamandar
Valley AuntThe former and latter are both unraced. Kithonia could easily make into an extremely nice Oaks horse. No surprise to see her put away for the year or Henry could even run her in the Fillies’ Mile.
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Had a brainwave earlier and just checked it out. For some reason had my doubts over horses in the 2000 Guineas who ran over 6f at Group level. Had a look, and obviously bar O’Brien runners (because O’Brien is a genius), such horses have run 61 times between 1995 and 2009 with just 4 placed.
I’m feeling pretty proud that a horse from my list of 20 odd from the 400 Derby entries has now been backed into joint-favouritism before he’s even seen a racecourse. I’ve just got £6 on at 33s but given that he’s now 25s in just 3 places and 20s everywhere else, I’ve done pretty well I think.
Nice maiden winner. Don’t care how unimpressive it was, he’ll improve bags for the run being trained by PCH. Now 20s across the board with a few hundred traded around the 14/1 mark on Betfair……
Munsarim gone from the Derby reckoning with that dismal effort after his promising 3rd behind Al Zir.
Worth taking note that the owner is a rich city trader and his other horse was backed for the Derby before he made his debut.
Johnny rides Viscount Nelson which isnt a surprise although very disappointed that Await the Dawn is still in the race….looks like a horse that isnt quite near the top but Colm is a very good rider so no worries on that front.
Not sure what i expect in this race….Hopefully Viscount will hack up and help my Kingsfort angle..but i not sure will he. He obviously will relish this ground and the BOG in Ireland i guess. I wont be backing him mind you as he looks a battler and i aint in for a long final furlong that is bound to occur.
Wallace, it’s no surprise, Ballydoyle get tens of debut winners that end up being rubbish. Malibu Bay, Mikhail Glinka, Jupiter Pluvius, etc. Not every Ballydoyle 2yo that wins first time out is a potential Derby horse.
Ooooh that’s better, Laddies quoted me some proper prices about Captain James Cook and Ferdinand Magellan. 40s for each. They’re both entered up in 2 maidens, along with Fighting Brave and Jan Vermeer, at The Curragh on Saturday and Listowel on Tuesday.
Just added the majority of my Derby, 2000 and 1000 shortlists to irish-racing.com’s horse tracker which will save me a fair bit of trawling through the entries every few days.
Hot Prospect tonight. Takes on Morana, another horse who could possibly be a Derby contender, but the lack of good progeny from the dam worries me.
Jan Vermeer and Ferdinand Magellan both confirmed for the Curragh maiden with no jockey bookings confirmed yet. My worry is that for such a main stream maiden, O’Brien’s never run anything resembling high class in it and as such I won’t be backing either for the Derby at this stage.
Hot Prospect a warm favourite at Sandown and being backed.
Very true Zark….but i was soo impressed on debut. Maybe its a Zulu Chief situation all over again. However i still think the horse is at least Group 3 Class.
Jockey booking are Ferdinand Magellan is ridden by Joseph claiming 7 and Jan Vermeer is ridden by Heff.
I wouldnt worry that AOB Hasnt had any decent horses in this race before….the ground has made sure that the regal routes were bypassed well at least some of them
Wallace.What did you think of the debut of ST Nicholas Abbey.Next years derby winner i say.
Does anyone know when he race next as well.
Yh Sir Nicholas Abbey looks a impressive animal…beautiful head on him..really put the head back and tried when Murtagh went for him about 2f out.
He again looks a horse for the future….the only problem is that they had no plans for him after his victory which is strange.
The only races are The Beresford and the RP….wouldnt imagine he go anywhere else….mind you Cape Blanco looks a horse that will shack up there aswell.
Boh are much better Irish Derby contenders I’d say.
Hot Prospect won and Morana was runner-up. Not much of a forecast, but it’s really good to see that my trends work is paying off. It only paid £4.13 but add that to other winners like Chabal, Coordinated Cut, etc, and it really makes it worthwhile.
Unfortunately Seta’s loss today doesn’t rule her out on the trends, and I’m still being generous to her on the foaling dates. She clearly hated the ground and there’s not much chance of her seeing anything much different to today’s ground in May. On a personal level, she’s gone from my reckoning.
Missed Al Zir’s win at Doncaster yesterday. I did try to find it on Racing UK but it wasn’t shown.
Bugger!
Not much to get excited about, won exactly like a 30/100 shot should do. Made all and did exactly what he was entitled to do. Pathetic by bookies to cut him for both Classics so much.
As for the National Stakes market, it’s disgusting. I made a point on either this thread or the one in the Big Race section that 20 once-raced horses have run in the National Stakes between 1995 and 2008, 19 of them were sent-off at 13/2 or bigger, with both winners (Sinndar and Refuse to Bend) 7/1 shots.
Darwin is the 20th horse, sent off the 4/9 favourite for O’Brien and was duly unplaced.
So quite frankly, and whether he wins or not is irrelevant, Kingsfort is probably the worst value bet I’ve seen all year.
It would be correct to infer, from common sense more than from this, that a once-raced horse is likely to be at something of a disadvantage against more race-hardened rivals in a Group 1.
It is quite a different matter to infer that Kingsfort is a bad bet for today’s race based solely on the performances of horses with which he has no other connection.
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