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Convey tonight at Kempton for Sir Michael Stoute.
Very impressive and looks to have everything about him to be a serious talent.
Only Stoutes 2nd first time out 2yo winner this term also.
The horse who finished third had run in a couple of races that have thrown up a good few winners. I would imagine Hannon’s horse will be nursery bound now. That gives the form a little bit of substance but it’s early days.
The winner could be very useful next year but I find it astounding that he is the same odds as Ol’ Man River, at 16/1, for next years Guineas on the back of a three grand maiden win on the all weather even if he did win five lengths. When you consider the other horse has hosed up in a Group 2 at the Curragh and has arguably the most powerful team in the world behind him and is bred out of two terrific horses, you have to question why they are deemed to hold the same chance of landing the 2000 Guineas.
Which one would you back if your life depended on it?
Crazy price for my money.
I had not looked at his price until reading your post, it certainly is short on that consideration.
Hardly a horse that will fall under the radar to be fair is Convey, I’ve little doubt he will make up into a group class horse, how far, who knows.
He looked plenty green enough in the business end the other night yet showed a mighty impressive turn of foot with 1 to run with considerable ease. Could have won by god knows how far.
Convey tonight at Kempton for Sir Michael Stoute.
Very impressive and looks to have everything about him to be a serious talent.
Only Stoutes 2nd first time out 2yo winner this term also.
The horse who finished third had run in a couple of races that have thrown up a good few winners. I would imagine Hannon’s horse will be nursery bound now. That gives the form a little bit of substance but it’s early days.
The winner could be very useful next year but I find it astounding that he is the same odds as Ol’ Man River, at 16/1, for next years Guineas on the back of a three grand maiden win on the all weather even if he did win five lengths. When you consider the other horse has hosed up in a Group 2 at the Curragh and has arguably the most powerful team in the world behind him and is bred out of two terrific horses, you have to question why they are deemed to hold the same chance of landing the 2000 Guineas.
Which one would you back if your life depended on it?
Crazy price for my money.
I had not looked at his price until reading your post, it certainly is short on that consideration.
Hardly a horse that will fall under the radar to be fair is Convey, I’ve little doubt he will make up into a group class horse, how far, who knows.
He looked plenty green enough in the business end the other night yet showed a mighty impressive turn of foot with 1 to run with considerable ease. Could have won by god knows how far.
Stoute hasn’t had it so good the last few years but I used to like to keep an eye on any of his that won their only start before going into the winter.
Convey is one who fits that bill but I’d see him as a 33/1 shot right now and one who might then come in if form is boosted and he is the subject of favourable reports in the Spring. It seems early days to be half of double carpet.
He’s one to keep an eye on for sure and his stable had a pretty good year.
Once again I’m struggling to get enthused about any of the Godolphin youngsters going into the closing stages of the season with a view to the Classics next year.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Smugglers cove won very easily in a listed race at Dundalk winning by 7l giving 5lbs to the next 3in the field and beating Bertie le belge(rated98) by over 10l. Developing rapidly and looks likely it will run in the dewhurst or racing post trophy. Widens biggest problem is where to place his 2yos although he has said that one or two of them won’t run again this season. Reminds of the year Vincent obrien had a raft of brilliant 2yos in the early 80s.
It seems like ages since Ivawood was on show but he’s in the Middle Park and is a warm favourite with the first bookie to offer odds, Paddy Power.
4/5 will be seen by some as a licence to print money but he’s not going to carry my money this week. I really wanted to see him line up in the Dewhurst to give some encouragement that he can progress into a Guineas horse next season and it looks a negative to me to be staying at sprinting distance.
This is the time of year when horses can catch up on the early season types and Ivawood has been off for 10 weeks. The form of his latest start is pretty modest and the simple fact is that the stable have never trained the winner of the race, surely a concern if you are wading in at odds on.
The Dewhurst sees stablemate Estidhkaar narrow second favourite behind the French wanderer Gleneagles who was disqualified for a late drift across the track. Gleneagles has been a busy lad this year and I suspect the Guineas will be his main aim. He doesn’t have the profile I’d be looking for in a Derby winner and I suspect he has 3 or 4 stablemates with more scope for that job. I think he will see the Hannon horse off and he rates a good, thick, bet for me in another race the Hannon stable has never landed.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
These are my top 2yo performances, the speed figures do not include
WFA
.
York 21-Aug-14 (Class 1) (2yo) 6f Good
Tiggy Wiggy
(IRE) 15/8F
90
Goodwood 31-Jul-14 (Class 1) (2yo) 6f Good To Firm
Ivawood
(IRE) 2/5F
89
York 21-Aug-14 (Class 1) (2yo) 6f Good
Anthem Alexander
(IRE) 5/2
87
Newmarket (July) 10-Jul-14 (Class 1) (2yo) 6f July Good To Firm
Ivawood
(IRE) 3/1F
87
Newbury 20-Sep-14 (Class 1) (2yo) (6f8y) 6f Soft
Toocoolforschool
(IRE) 4/1
86
York 21-Aug-14 (Class 1) (2yo) 6f Good
Cursory Glance
(USA) 11/4
86
Newmarket 25-Sep-14 (Class 1) (2yo) 7f Row Good
Maftool
(USA) 7/2
85
Ascot 17-Jun-14 (Class 1) (2yo) 5f Good
Hootenanny
(USA) 7/2F
85
York 20-Aug-14 (Class 1) (2yo) 7f Good To Firm
Dutch Connection
16/1
84
York 20-Aug-14 (Class 1) (2yo) 7f Good To Firm
Toocoolforschool
(IRE) 33/1
84
Doncaster 24-Jul-14 (Class 3) (2yo) 7f Good
Basateen
(IRE) 5/6F
84
Newbury 19-Jul-14 (Class 2) (2yo) (5f34y) 5f Good
Tiggy Wiggy
(IRE) 5/2F
84
Curragh (IRE) 19-Jul-14 (2yo) (6f63y) 6½f Good To Firm
Dick Whittington
(IRE) 2/1J
83
Ascot 18-Jun-14 (Class 1) (2yo) 5f Good To Firm
Anthem Alexander
(IRE) 9/4F
83
Windsor 02-Jun-14 (Class 4) (2yo) (5f10y) 5f Good
Justice Good
(IRE) 4/1
83
Newmarket (July) 09-Aug-14 (Class 4) (2yo) 7f July Soft
Marsh Hawk
6/1
82
Curragh (IRE) 19-Jul-14 (2yo) (6f63y) 6½f Good To Firm
Toscanini
(IRE) 2/1J
82
Ascot 18-Jun-14 (Class 1) (2yo) 5f Good To Firm
Tiggy Wigg
y (IRE) 7/2
82
Ascot 17-Jun-14 (Class 1) (2yo) 6f Good
The Wow Signal
(IRE) 5/1J
82
Chantilly (FR) 16-May-14 (2yo) 5f Good
Goken
(FR) 2/5F
82
Newmarket 27-Sep-14 (Class 1) (2yo) 6f Row Good To Firm
Tiggy Wiggy
(IRE) 6/4F
81
Curragh (IRE) 10-Aug-14 (2yo) 6f Soft
Dick Whittington
(IRE) 6/1
81
Curragh (IRE) 28-Sep-14 (2yo) 7f Good To Firm
Qualify
(IRE) 9/4
80
York 23-Aug-14 (Class 1) (2yo) 6f
Good Muhaarar
7/1
80
York 23-Aug-14 (Class 1) (2yo) 6f Good
Jungle Cat
(IRE) 9/2
80
York 20-Aug-14 (Class 1) (2yo) 7f Good To Firm
Basateen
(IRE) 6/4F
80
Curragh (IRE) 10-Aug-14 (2yo) 6f Soft
Kool Kompany
(IRE) 8/11F
80
Curragh (IRE) 19-Jul-14 (2yo) (6f63y) 6½f Good To Firm
Rapid Applause
10/1
80
Ascot 18-Jun-14 (Class 1) (2yo) 5f Good To Firm
Newsletter
(IRE) 33/1
80
Chantilly (FR) 13-May-14 (2yo) (5f110y) 5½f Very Soft
El Suizo
(FR) 30/100F
80
Mike.
Future Champions day looks a cracker. I’ve gone in quite a bit on Marsh Hawk for the guineas so I’m looking for a big run from her and hoping she’s a hawk and not a peacock…..
Seems She’s suited to a bit of cut in the ground and has finished both races at 7 furlongs really well as well as showing quite a bit of speed, I think she will get the mile and the 5’s for the fillies mile current price look an each way bet to nothing, having been supplemented she’s sure to run and one or two others might drop out, so I’d take the 3 places now.Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
Nathan, what are your thoughts on Future Champions Day now that the decs have been made?
I have got tickets for the day, but can see a lot of non-runners after today’s rain making some small fields and non-informative races.
Hope I’m wrong!
Possibly although they are running on a fresher strip of ground and Newmarket drains well, so hopefully things will be ok. My thoughts don’t stretch far Peters. If Ivawood handles the ground cant see him being beat, he has plenty of speed and they view him a guineas horse so if the going is on the soft, heavy side it shouldn’t inconvenient him distance wise just whether or not he takes to it.
With no Gleneagles it looks a penalty kick for Estidhkaar who sets a pretty solid standard although he is better off a strong pace and if more come out it could be a slow run affair.
I’m in on Marsh Hawk each way 5/1 with 3 places and if she stays then she should be in the first three as she’ll handle the going and has plenty of speed. I’m hoping she gets a soft lead and Hughes can put the brakes on. Lucida has very good form, 2nd in the Moyglare to the horse who was beat by Tiggy Wiggy and finished her race off really well at Newmarket the other day when meeting the rising ground. I was kind of hoping Bolger would take her out but on the other hand I should know if my 1000 Guineas voucher has any real chance or not after the race.
Who do you fancy for the races Peters?
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
Thanks for your views on the day Nathan. I can’t see any strong fancies for the day and I keep thinking of the old saying "never bet when the going is wet". I could envisage one or two upsets but couldn’t say where from. I think I will wait and see what non-runners there are on the day before deciding.
Yeah agree, more a watching day and small bets rather then
wading
in too
heavy
.
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
With no Gleneagles it looks a penalty kick for Estidhkaar who sets a pretty solid standard although he is better off a strong pace and if more come out it could be a slow run affair.
Gleneagles not running was a kick in the Niagara Falls for me but I felt he would have gone off shorter than 7/4 come the day so stepped in early. Estidhkaar didn’t quite live up to the bullish views of his trainer pre-race but got the job done last time. He’s a worthy favourite but the fact that the stable haven’t landed the race before puts me off at odds on and there is a slight nag in my mind that Aiden O’ Brien has stuck Smuggler’s Cove in as a sub for Gleneagles. This horse comes here after hosing up last time and is clearly on the up, although there is more on his plate here.
Maftool is no duck egg either. I am not a fan of the Godolphin two year olds as they move on from their first run because of the numbers who seem to fail to progress but this horse seems to be an exception and he doesn’t have much to find with the favourite on ratings, yet sits at 7/1.
All things considered I think it’s worth taking the favourite on and I am going to stick a small wager on Kodi Bear. A good effort in being 5th in the Coventry, a race that has thrown up 7 other winners, was followed by a nice listed win over 7f, where he stayed on strongly on the good to soft surface. He has 5lb to find on official ratings but comes here fresh after a 3 month break in which he may well have progressed. In a race that is probably trickier than the odds suggest I am having a small bet on the Clive Cox runner at a whopping looking 12/1, rather than wade in on the odds on fav.
Kodi Bear to
claw
his way to the top
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I’m taking on Ivawood for all he’s worth tomorrow. Stable vibes are appalling, his pedigree contains virtually no horses who could raise a gallop in soft ground and the competition have probably caught up to this ‘early season juvenile’ already.
I could see him finishing 6th of 7 here.
I have the eggs poised to lather all over my face.
6th or 7th TYF………
Have you ever watched Beadle’s about? I keep expecting Jeremy to pop through the screen……
https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=GyBR8rd6FoM
Of course you could well be right and the horse might not take to water but I’m not sure how the others would of caught up with him, most of them have run about 10 times each. I also have my doubts about Ivawood as a three year old but that’s next season and I think physically he’ll be fine this season and wouldn’t worry about that for tomorrow.
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
I’m taking on Ivawood for all he’s worth tomorrow. Stable vibes are appalling, his pedigree contains virtually no horses who could raise a gallop in soft ground and the competition have probably caught up to this ‘early season juvenile’ already.
I could see him finishing 6th of 7 here.
I have the eggs poised to lather all over my face.
I backed Ivawood for the 2000 Guineas at 20/1 but in recent weeks my confidence has waned. I wasn’t getting good vibes, as you have mentioned, and some of the races they had him entered were puzzling to me, particularly that sales race they considered on the way to the Middle Park.
The going worries me as well but perhaps not as much as a quick glance at the form would suggest. The ATR race reports show the going as good to firm for the July Stakes but I watched the race that day and the rain p155ed down pretty damn hard and there was a fair bit of cut in the ground by the time of the race, certainly enough for Richard Hughes to say that soft ground might not be Ivawood’s best surface.
I expected that they would try him at 7f this year, so it’s a negative for me that they haven’t. It is all very well saying you have decided to stick to 6f for now but I don’t buy into it if he really is a Guineas contender.
The Middle Park Stakes is not a good race as regards winners going on to glory at Newmarket in May over a mile. Why wait until next year, prep him for the Guineas, only to find out
then
that he doesn’t stay in the Greenham or whatever? If they ran him in the Dewhurst and he didn’t stay, then at least you go into the winter knowing you are going to prepare him for a clash with Limato in the new 3yo sprint at Royal Ascot.
I’d like to take Ivawood on at the odds but I just don’t see much there to do it with. Surely Aiden O’Brien has something better in the yard than the one he’s sent for this, Cappella Sansevero, Jungle Cat and Kool Kompany have had a lot of races, Muhaarar has more than three lengths to find on July Stakes running and the Godolphin horse needs a big step up from previous form.
I’ll settle for sitting this race out altogether and hope Ivawood can show something to keep the ante-post ticket out of the fire.
I’ll go instead for
Deep Blue Sea
in the nursery in the hope that the trip and ground bring further improvement for a smaller stable at 7/1. I am sure she’d be just about fav for this if trained by a bigger name.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
What can you say. You get a gut feeling about a horse and it proves correct. Punters never seem to learn though and he went off 1/2 in a race the stable have never landed.
Graeme Cunningham is trying to excuse Ivawood on account of the ground but the party’s over as far as I am concerned for the Guineas.
The connections of Ivawood had said before the race that they are confident he’ll get a mile next year but he seemed outstayed as much as anything by the winner today.
I’ve stuck more money on Ol’ Man River for the 2000 Guineas and I’ll leave Ivawood to Graeme Cunningham to keep dreaming about for Newmarket next May.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Eat it, Ivawood!
As Steve said, his entry in the Middle Park was a negative for the 2000 Guineas even before this defeat. The ground was probably a major factor in today’s result, but his pedigree screams ‘juvenile’ from every angle.
Sire Zebedee was packed off to stud at 2 as owner Julie Wood and trainer Richard Hannon both agreed the horse had little scope for progression at three. Damsire Red Ransom was also a brilliant two-year-old whose best achievements were all in that juvenile year. Ivawood’s physique is also a huge giveaway. Even now, he’s rippling with muscle and so much bigger and stronger than the horses he faced in the Middle Park.
Compare Ivawood with Limato as they look right now. Limato is a very small bare frame, with hardly any muscle – there’s such huge scope for growth and improved strength. He’s also by the much underrated and underused sire Tagula, who has produced loads of gritty long-lasting sprint-handicappers in addition to Canford Cliffs, who improved well from year to year. Ivawood, like his breeding suggests, is already the finished article.
In my view, Ivawood has peaked already. I’d be surprised if he even threatens in the Guineas if he does turn up there.
In a race that is probably trickier than the odds suggest I am having a small bet on the Clive Cox runner at a whopping looking 12/1, rather than wade in on the odds on fav.
Kodi Bear to
claw
his way to the top
I thought I was on a winner for a moment but when you spot the bad fav something else creeps up to kick you in the stones.
Apparently Paul Hanagan mistimed the start and banged the Fav into the stalls before they opened. Oh dear!!
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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