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Two for Gold appears to be a highly popular TRF outsider. 1st fence departure incoming!
BUY THE SUN
Minella times sure has absolutely no chance off 161 and 11-12
He’d need to be a borderline gold Cup horse to win off that mark
Won off 10-3 last year I’d be flabbergasted if he won
Aye. I understand what folk are saying about the ‘Rachael Factor’, but this level of collapse in price staggers me.
BUY THE SUN
Minella T is 12/1 on the machine, so many punters recognise it’s a false bookmaker’s price because they know what’s coming. Can’t blame bookies tbh.
Value Is EverythingGoing makes a big difference to my book.
Forget my earlier stuff, I’ve cashed out (for a very small loss) of my earlier good-soft bets and started again.Having yesterday made Delta Work no value at all, I now make him favourite and value.
Enjoy D’Allen is in my Good ground book best value, I make him a fair 9% 10/1 chance and he’s currently available at almost double that @ 19/1.
Second best Delta Work who I make a fair 8/1 and is currently available @ 12.5/1.
Third best Any Second Now a fair 9/1 who’s available at 12/1 (even with a few going doubts)
Snow Leopardess now rated a fair 11/1 so hoping to get 14/1 overnight. Despite the ground worry everything else is in his favour including trainer form.
Got some outsiders at marginal value but only Death Duty (fair 25/1 and available @ 49/1) is now more than my margin for error above my price. Although did take 43/1 Commodore earlier who I make a fair 33/1 despite the stable form. Death Duty’s 2% better than my idea of its fair odds is fairly significant for an outsider.
Am not really a layer, but couldn’t resist the 3/1 for a place Minella Times as I make his real place odds almost double that. May go in again if they shorten further.
Value Is EverythingGordon Elliott said before Cheltenham that Delta Work would have a chance on soft ground in the x-country. Then it chucked it down. Gigginstown said this week that Delta Work could do with rain. He also has plenty of weight. If he gets out of his comfort zone during this assignment don’t be surprised.
Will take a each way chance on some Irish outsiders
Brahma Bull @ 50-1…10 places [Bet 365]
Samcro @ 40-1…10 places
Coko Beach @ 45-1..10 places
Freewheelin Dylan @ 35-1…10 places
Class Conti @ 60-1…10 places
Noble Yeats @ 28-1..10 placesEasysland (owned by JP) is pulled out with a dirty scope which allows School boy hours(owned by JP) into the race. Hmmmm. When doing the course walk yesterday I spoke to one of the stewards at a fence who said he’d spoken to 5 jockeys walking the course and they had tipped School boy hours.
I’ve twice backed the Winner of the National the year before they won but not when they were victorious(Red Marauder and Mon Mome) and Discorama has had a better preparation than last years fine effort.
For me Delta Work is the class act in the field.
Delta Work 9-1 win
School Boy Hours 25-1 E/W 6 places
Discorama 40-1 E/W 6 places
Any Second Now 10-1 Win saverGood luck everyone
National course good to soft after overnight watering
Aintree dries out fast forcast dry day risk minimal light shower maybe 1mm rainVf x
Well my shortlist got a pummelling. Narked that Court Maid isn’t running, I thought she ticked a lot of boxes but if she’s not right she’s not right. Go Another One also staying at home. I decided against Two For Gold, despite the well- in- ness, due to the stamina concern.
Agusta Gold has Danny Mullins on board as I thought she would, pleased about that as he knows her well. He was beaming when he got off Annamix yesterday and a super pilot.
Can’t believe Brahma Bull does get his china shop to run in but he jumps much better this year and the ground should suit. I don’t like the fact that he bled the run before last but still, I have to back the big lunk :heart:. I’m glad Brian Hayes keeps the ride. ‘hon the Bull! 🦬
School Boy Hours looks a very price and I like his profile.
Will also have a smaller little tickle on Class Conti- form gives him no chance and he didn’t like the argy bargy last year, but the jockey booking is a decent one. I assume it was compensation from the owners for Daryl Jacob taking the reins of Sam T-D’s dad’s horse and Mullins probably said oh well it has no chance so whatevs- but he might just be able to nurse the little horse round sympathetically and who knows.Agusta Gold 100-1
Any Second Now 28-1
Brahma Bull 125-1
Class Conti 150-1All ew 6 places. Good luck everyone and thanks as usual for the write up VtC, it’s as much part of the buildup as the Champions music!
Two For Gold is a tricky one, Green’.
Big stamina doubts and yet has seemed suited by soft ground. Soft going would’ve placed far too much emphasis on stamina but now he does not get the preferred surface. I had a saver on him when thinking it was good-soft but laid the bet back now, so just a loser for me.Value Is EverythingAs per usual i’m mob handed in this.
Win onlys
Escaria Ten 16s
Enjoy D’Allen 18s
Cloth Cap 28s
Minella Times 20sEach ways
Fortescue 66s
School Boy Hours 33s
Commodore 28s
De Rasher Counter 40s
Kildisart 33s
Deise Aba 66s
Discorama 40s
Freewheelindylan 66sEclair Surf, Delta Work, Snow Leopardess are the 3 i could easily have bet on.
Best of luck to all👍
“Gordon Elliott said before Cheltenham that Delta Work would have a chance on soft ground in the x-country. Then it chucked it down. Gigginstown said this week that Delta Work could do with rain. He also has plenty of weight. If he gets out of his comfort zone during this assignment don’t be surprised”.
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Horses can change their going requirements with age, Mike. eg If a horse had a physical problem it may no longer like / act on the good ground once favoured. So is possible Delta Work’s preference has changed. But although the excellent X-Country performance was on heavy, if looking back to his novice days he started 15/8 fav in the soft ground RSA on the back of three good going races (including a grade 1). Indeed, I believe his defeat was blamed by some on the soft ground.
Good ground should help the top weights because each pound is worth less in distance (if they go on the surface).
“Plenty of weight”? Weight is relative. Delta Work is one of the best handicapped horses on his x-country performance last time out.
Value Is EverythingThanks Grass, glad you liked it. Me cursing at my poor typing is now one of my big traditions too
I’ve added School Boy Hours, as he was a proper notebook horse of mine last year. It would be hard to see him win.
Happy with how it’s went this year, and the lays on Escaria Ten and Galvin made massive difference, though just a couple of quid ahead now. I’m not even mentioning Samcro in the list, I reckon “PU 19th”
Any Second Now 20’s
Commodore 66’s EW 6pls NRNB
Escaria Ten 66’s EW 5pls
Escaria Ten 90’s
Freewheelin Dylan 66’s EW 6pl NRNB
School Boy Hours 28’sBest of luck to all of you today
Horses being pushed out in the betting now (365):
Escaria Ten 20s
Enjoy D’Allen 16s
Discorama back out to 40s, was 28s an hour ago
Burrows Saint 25s
Delta Work 11s
Eclair Surf 14sMoney for
Dingo Dollar into 40s (from 66s)Solid in the betting
Snow Leopardess
Longhouse Poet
Any Second Now
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