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My picks ew 5 places…
Snow Leopardess 18-1
Any Second Now 22-1
Fiddlerontheroof 28-1
Enjoy D’allen 35-1
Discorama 55-1
Escaria Ten 66-1
+ School Boy Hours 25-1 bog ew 6 places, money back for a DNF.Good luck all
Enjoy D’Allen 19/1
Delta Work 12.5/1.
Any Second Now 12/1
Snow Leopardess 13.5/1
Commodore 43/1
Death Duty 49/1
LAY Minella Times 3/1 placeAdded Mighty Thunder 54/1
Value Is EverythingPU, PU aint good form figures coming into this, but has had a wind operation that sometimes changes everything… And apart from Martin Pipe (who has the rank outsider) Lucinda Russell is imo in the best form of any trainer here. Mighty Thunder has just a 3 lbs higher mark than his Scottish National victory and (before those wind problems) progressive.
Value Is EverythingApparently Michael O Leary was asked what chance Delta Work has in the National in the RP paper. He said none. Lol
No strong selection at all here.
I really liked School Boy Hour‘s PaddyPower win at Leopardstown. He passed plenty of horses in a very, very good field. Judging by the interviews after there seemed to be plenty of confidence about him that day too. Hasn’t any extreme distances in the bag so there is that unknown, but that run in the Paddy Power is what you want to see. Made a bad mistake in the Kim Muir last time out when favourite but there’s more to come from him.
That’s what my head says. My heart…
Blaklion. I wouldn’t be advising anyone to back the 13yo but I have a soft spot for him and wouldn’t be at all surprised if he runs well again. I wasn’t actually going to back him but Powers/BF went 100/1 yesterday and I couldn’t resist a bet with both (6 places). A veteran of the race, it’s his second season with Dan Skelton and Dan sounds a lot happier with his prep this time than last year. This trip does stretch him a bit but the good ground should help. Age will catch up with him at some stage and that may well happen here but I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see him run well again. The first time tongue tie is probably clutching at straws a bit but you’d never know.
Can’t wait for the race and I’ll cheer on any of those trainer/owner/jockey combos who have never won it before.
Couldn’t remember what i had backed as seem to have had a feeding frenzy and when went into Bet365 to check saw the boost to 40-1 on School Boy Hours so had to have a nibble of that as well
currently have
School Boy Hours, Kildisart, Commodore @ 40-1
Freewheelin Dylan, Dingo Dollar, Santini @ 50-1
Longhouse Poet, Eclair Surf @ 16-1
will be thrilled if i get any return at all!
Good luck all.This is my 100% book for what I expect to be genuine good ground (it won’t be officially good):
Figure on the left are my idea of each horse’s fair odds to 100% book, then my idea of the percentage chance, name, marks out of 5 for going, marks for trainer in form.17/2 10.5% Delta Work 4….//
9/1 10% Any Second Now 3…./*?
10/1 9% Enjoy D’Allen 5….//?
11/1 8.25% Snow Leopardess 2….*
18/1 5.25% Fiddlerontheroof 5…./*
20/1 4.75% Run Wild Fred 5….//
22/1 4.25% Eclair Surf 2….//
22/1 4.25% Minella Times 3…./
25/1 4% Escaria Ten 3….//
25/1 3.75% Death Duty 5….//
28/1 3.5% Longhouse Poet 1….?
28/1 3.5% Fortesque 3…./
28/1 3.5% Burrows Saint 5….*
33/1 3% Commodore 3….-/
33/1 3% Mighty Thunder 5….**
40/1 2.25% School Boy Hours 4….*
50/1 2% Cloth Cap 5…./*
50/1 2% Two For Gold 3….//
50/1 2% Santini 5….*?
66/1 1.5% Freewheelin Dylan 5…./
66/1 1.5% Dingo Dollar 5…./
100/1 1% Deise Aba 2….//
100/1 1% Kildesat 5X…./*
100/1 1% Lostintranslation 5…./*
100/1 1% De Rasher Counter 2….//
125/1 0.8% Mount Ida 2….//
300/1 0.3% Augusta Gold 1….*
300/1 0.3% Bahama Bull 4….*
300/1 0.3% Anibale Fly 3….//
300/1 0.3% Discorama 2….-/
400/1 0.25% Samcro 3X….//
400/1 0.25% Noble Yeats 2….//?
400/1 0.25% Blaklion 5X….//
500/1 0.2% Coko Beach 2….//
500/1 0.2% Romain De Senam 5….**
500/1 0.2% Domaine De L’Isle 5X…./*
500/1 0.2% Poker Party 5X…./
1000/1 0.1% Top Ville Ben 0….-/
1000/1 0.1% Class Conti 1….*First time I’ve tried doing the Grand National without Timeform.
Value Is Everything“Why is Escaria Ten drifting like the proverbial barge? 🤔”
Escaria, Enjoy D’Allen, Delta Work are the main drifters who were much shorter yday and earlier today.
Run Wild Fred, Fiddlerontheroof and Longhouse Poet the main movers that are shortening.
The likes of Minella Times, Any Second Now and Snow Leopardess are rock solid at the top of the betting. Hardly moved in price in last few hours.
True to form I’ve cracked and backed all the Mullins runners. His form this year is pants but back on good ground over these fences, I can’t not back Townend’s pick at 40s.
Agusta Gold 100-1
Any Second Now 28-1
Brahma Bull 125-1
Class Conti 150-1
Burrows Saint 40-1All ew 6 places. Good luck everyone
Some juice in the ground for the GN i think. Times not been quick and Sam Brown just won.
ANY SECOND NOW
LONGHOUSE POET
DELTA WORK
SNOW LEOPARDESS
All to winAUGUSTA GOLD
Each wayGood luck all and lets hope they all come home safe.
Possibly Mike.
Depends if you believe that Gentleman Mee is an absolutely exceptional novice – just 3.57 seconds slower than Racing Post standard.
Or
Gentleman De Mee is just a really good novice and other races less than truly run.
Am thinking it’s most likely the latter, but haven’t had my eye on sectionals today.
Value Is EverythingEnjoy D’Allen 19/1
Delta Work 12.5/1.
Any Second Now 12/1
Snow Leopardess 13.5/1
Commodore 43/1
Death Duty 49/1
Mighty Thunder 54/1Commodore is now only a saver
Have now done in the place market:
Enjoy D’Allen
Delta Work
Any Second Now
Snow Leopardess
Death Duty
Mighty Thunder…
And laid Minella TimesGood luck all.
Value Is Everything
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