February 2, 2019 at 01:10 #1394723
Red Rum 77Participant
- Total Posts 937
Potato, Native River can’t go for the National this year. Not in the list which was published on Wednesday. Only the 112 have a chance and one will win it, unless we have a repeat of 1993. My money’s on EE and I’m hoping for his best form to come out in the Gold Cup. Most winners of the Grand National produce their personal best either on their last or next to last run before the National before improving again in the National itself.
Of course they might not go to Aintree and I’m already counting it as they won’t but prepared if they did.February 4, 2019 at 09:04 #1395133
Red Rum 77Participant
- Total Posts 937
Red Rum 77. If Singlefarmbloodypayment(BF) wins then I’m giving up the sport as it will prove I clearly know nothing about it.
Well after more intensive research I think the run in the CF Roberts 25 Years Of Sponsorship Handicap Chase (Grade 3) at Cheltenham (14th Decemeber) looks very strong to me. The race was used by Mon Mome in 2008 on way to victory in 2009. His OR has only gone up 1 pound since that gallant effort, although Cogry beat him that day, Cogry rating expected to be 141 may not be enough to qualify.February 4, 2019 at 10:35 #1395139
- Total Posts 851
Ms Parfois runs at Exeter on Sunday and is being targeted at the Nash. I’ve taken a small swing at 40s with Lads, she’s on a nice mark and will stay all day.February 4, 2019 at 12:46 #1395155
She’s been given every chance by the handicapper. I’m amazed she’s as big as she is in the market…February 4, 2019 at 16:30 #1395183
- Total Posts 330
It looks very winnable as well, but hopefully it wouldn’t affect her mark too much.
I could see her round AintreeFebruary 4, 2019 at 19:59 #1395194
Problem with Ms Parfois at this stage is that she is ground dependant. trainer always says “as long as its soft” when she is declared for something.February 10, 2019 at 06:25 #1397066
Had a free bet so taken a flier on Valseur Lido at 80-1 ew 5 places. Former grade 1 winner who ran a cracker off OR158 in the race last year when weight began to tell 2 out. Now down to OR146.
Needs to be in form on the day but if he is I can see him back there off his current mark.February 11, 2019 at 10:17 #1397145
Added General Principle 33-1February 11, 2019 at 10:44 #1397150
Gordon Elliott talking about running 12 or 15. Do we really want another Martin Pipe-like monopoly of the National? Running no hopers to help aid their main chances? There surely must be a line to be drawn somewhere?February 11, 2019 at 11:56 #1397155
- Total Posts 214
I hope that that isn’t the case Peter, he does seem to get away from it over here without any bother, but I can see it not going down well in England.February 11, 2019 at 12:28 #1397160
- Total Posts 214
I thought that Monbeg Notorious showed signs of encouragement yesterday, well he couldn’t have fared as badly as he did last time. I think he could be interesting for this.
Dounikos is the obvious one, but he might get hurt by the handicapper.February 11, 2019 at 22:25 #1397211
Venture to CognacModerator
- Total Posts 14885
Still feels strange to me just having one at this stage, and even stranger not having a book on the go.
Still Missed Approach as clear #1, but might start chipping away st the backups, ahead of the weights launch tomorrow.
General Principle – Real old favourite and regular of mine. He was second choice on my early shortlist, and an identical campaign as last year suggests a big effort will be in store here or at Fairyhouse.
Pairofbrowneyes – Another favourite of mine, and I can see him bounce back to life here. I see him in the Pleasant Company mould, and you can ignore his runs so far. Easy to forget he was favourite for Irish National, and I’ve gotta good feeling about him. There must be a good chance that this is the plan.
Sandymount Duke – Harder to weigh up, but I haven’t forgotten his form of a year and a half ago. They’ve kept him busy since then, but managed to shave a few pounds off at the same time. I’ve no concerns about the ground, certainly got no concerns about him going left handed, and from a yard who aren’t prone to too many speculative entries in this, the only slight concern is the lack of racing he’s had away from Ireland. At the price he has to be worth an early risk.
Black Corton got a long look, but I think connections will also fancy a shot at The Bowl. Very interesting entry though. Same applies to Sizing Codelco, very interesting entry, and potentially a spring horse, so the 66’s is tempting. Edwulf is a real favourite, and though he’s high enough in the weights, this looks the plan, and he won’t be 50’s on the day.
If I do start a book, all of those above will feature on it, but for now, I’ve added these….,
Missed Approach 70’s
Missed Approach 50’s EW 5 Places
General Principle 33’s
Pairofbrowneyes 66’s EW 5 Places
Sandymount Duke 66’s EWFebruary 12, 2019 at 15:06 #1397255
February 12, 2019 at 15:59 #1397260
- Total Posts 441
Weights will go up 6lbs, maybe 4lbs. Bristol wont run.February 12, 2019 at 16:02 #1397261
I can’t see them running Bristol De Mai, so i expect the weights to go up at least 4lbs. I’m not overly convinced they’ll run Anibale Fly again off top weight either, so there’s a chance they’ll go up 6lbs. Elliott and Giggs will do all they can to keep weight off the likes of Tiger Roll, Don Poli and General Principal, so Alpha Des Obeaux is a certainty to line up if looking like top weight.
I’ll have a proper scour through when I get home.
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