- This topic has 517 replies, 74 voices, and was last updated 7 years, 1 month ago by
.
- Posts
Problem with Ms Parfois at this stage is that she is ground dependant. trainer always says “as long as its soft” when she is declared for something.
I’ve taken a flier on Valseur Lido at 80-1 ew 5 places. Former grade 1 winner who ran a cracker off OR158 in the race last year when weight began to tell 2 out. Now down to OR146.
Needs to be in form on the day but if he is I can see him back there off his current mark.Gordon Elliott talking about running 12 or 15. Do we really want another Martin Pipe-like monopoly of the National? Running no hopers to help aid their main chances? There surely must be a line to be drawn somewhere?
I hope that that isn’t the case Peter, he does seem to get away from it over here without any bother, but I can see it not going down well in England.
I thought that Monbeg Notorious showed signs of encouragement yesterday, well he couldn’t have fared as badly as he did last time. I think he could be interesting for this.
Dounikos is the obvious one, but he might get hurt by the handicapper.
Still feels strange to me just having one at this stage, and even stranger not having a book on the go.
Still Missed Approach as clear #1, but might start chipping away st the backups, ahead of the weights launch tomorrow.
General Principle – Real old favourite and regular of mine. He was second choice on my early shortlist, and an identical campaign as last year suggests a big effort will be in store here or at Fairyhouse.
Pairofbrowneyes – Another favourite of mine, and I can see him bounce back to life here. I see him in the Pleasant Company mould, and you can ignore his runs so far. Easy to forget he was favourite for Irish National, and I’ve gotta good feeling about him. There must be a good chance that this is the plan.
Sandymount Duke – Harder to weigh up, but I haven’t forgotten his form of a year and a half ago. They’ve kept him busy since then, but managed to shave a few pounds off at the same time. I’ve no concerns about the ground, certainly got no concerns about him going left handed, and from a yard who aren’t prone to too many speculative entries in this, the only slight concern is the lack of racing he’s had away from Ireland. At the price he has to be worth an early risk.
Black Corton got a long look, but I think connections will also fancy a shot at The Bowl. Very interesting entry though. Same applies to Sizing Codelco, very interesting entry, and potentially a spring horse, so the 66’s is tempting. Edwulf is a real favourite, and though he’s high enough in the weights, this looks the plan, and he won’t be 50’s on the day.
If I do start a book, all of those above will feature on it, but for now, I’ve added these….,
Missed Approach 70’s
Missed Approach 50’s EW 5 Places
General Principle 33’s
Pairofbrowneyes 66’s EW 5 Places
Sandymount Duke 66’s EWI can’t see them running Bristol De Mai, so i expect the weights to go up at least 4lbs. I’m not overly convinced they’ll run Anibale Fly again off top weight either, so there’s a chance they’ll go up 6lbs. Elliott and Giggs will do all they can to keep weight off the likes of Tiger Roll, Don Poli and General Principal, so Alpha Des Obeaux is a certainty to line up if looking like top weight.
I’ll have a proper scour through when I get home.
I’ve cashed out Rathvinden. It’s unheard of for a horse to win a National in recent times without a run by weights day. And swapped him with Walk In the Mill. So I now have ew 5 places…
Walk In the Mill 25s
General Principle 33s
Abolitionist 40s
Noble Endeavor 50s
Vintage Clouds 50s
Valseur Lido 80sPatrick Mullins confirmed Rathvinden as this being his seasons target. Taken some 33s. Nice weight and this’ll suit if the grounds half decent. He’s my numero uno at this stage, Ms Parfois so far my second small wager.
I’ve cashed out my Pairofbrowneyes bet already, as he ain’t qualified yet.
I nearly added Tea For Two at 66’s to take his place, and might still do, but I did have win only bet on Mall Dini at 33’s, just too big.
Tea for Two is a Kayf Tara. They seem ok up to 4 miles then struggle with the extra distance, so stick with each way I would say if anybody fancies it.
Gordon Elliott is sending ”as many as he can”. Can’t say I’m particularly looking forward to a Mickey Mouse National full of no hopers from the same trainer/owner.
Nevermind this vaccination rule nonsense; the BHA need to look into bringing in a fair play rule to stop this kind of monopoly on races. Having multiple chances is one thing, but having over a third of the Grand National field is just not on.
Call me what you like, but I will be actively rooting against all his horses on the day should he pull this stunt.
Delighted with the weight assigned to Missed Approach. He clearly gets the distance having been second to Tiger a Roll in the 4m Novice Chase at Cheltenham. That was on level weights whereas he’s on 10st 1 lb for the National. Greatrex has been on record all season that this is his target. He just needs to make the cut now. Is this likely?
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.