- This topic has 620 replies, 58 voices, and was last updated 7 years, 1 month ago by
.
- Posts
Bellshill progressed last season and with a win before the gold cup could start the race rated 170+ which means he must be taken seriously. I would be worried that he is a better horse right handed though and I would want to see him win a decent race pre festival but if he does the 20/1 could look big.
Al Boum Photo very impressive in Tramore. Was only a Listed Chase but a decent line up. He carried 10lb more than Total Recall and beat him by 6L; carried 3 more than Invitation Only and Alpha Des Obeaux and stuffed them by 22L and 25L respectively. That puts him well into the 160s; think he’s one to watch out for.
Will probably take the Irish Gold Cup in on the way to Cheltenham.
Total Recall on weights and ratings was entitled to beat Invitation only by 11 lengths and he beat him by 10 lengths, with the 155 rated Alpha Des Obeaux a further 3 lengths back. Therefore every evidence suggests that both Total Recall and Invitation only ran up to their marks of 156 and 152 respectively. For Al Boum Photo to beat Total Recall by 6 lengths while carrying 10 pounds more, puts this at a 172 performance. I think it was exceptional and may well be an underrated piece of form in what was easily the best race of the day in Britain or Ireland
Surely Al Boum Photo would go to the Ryanair and not the gold cup after todays performance?
Wouldn’t stand a chance in the gold cup.
Again wex like i said about kemboy when you suggested he ran to 176
Al boum photo is my gold cup horse for this season but he DID NOT run to 172 there or anywhere near it, too many horses in the race running FTO for the season to make an accurate rating, a rough estimate is he probably ran to 160-162 nothing more, i expect him to step forward but If he ran to 172 FTO hes already eclipsed the rating of most actual gold cup winners for the last decade, including the likes of sizing john, for winning a listed race, its not how ratings work atall. You have to factor in seasonal reappearence.
That aside he was really impressive and id like to think he has atleast another 7lbs of improvement in him long term, will know more in the irish gold cup!
As I said I think this form will be underrated. You suggest 162, that would put total Recall at 146, Invitation Only at 142, alpha at 134, last goodbye at 118. Hard to believe that all them horses vastly underperformed. Far easier to believe that one rapidly improving horse performed exceptionally. Similar argument with Kemboy. Somewhere in the high 160’s is definitely justified.
I’d say he probably ran to something in between what ham and Wex suggest; and if he can find another 7lb of improvement then he’s a big player and 16/1 is tasty.
Im not saying they all under performed wex, what im saying like i did with kemboy is you had him running to 176, but thats looking at distances and ratings and not accounting for all the other variables in the race, horses iptimum trips, ground, reappearance among many other things, in reality i thought kemboy ran to 169 at best,when infact the handicapper has it as 167 which is what id say is correct, you took distance between horses as the reason for giving 176, but failed to account for everything else that made that rating impossible
Same as ABP today, he has a mountain of potential ive always said it, but theres no way he ran to 172, and yes its entirely possible total recall ran to low 140s, when you factor in the trip is NOT suited to him (hes never shown the same form over it) it was his reappearence
Invitation only has not betterd 152 in 5 chase starts prior to this, so its hard to imagine hes ran to his absolute best FTO, willies have all pretty much needed a run this season,
Id say as impressive as ABP is youd be mad to rate it in the high 160s today,
As i said previously i think it was on this thread i think hes capable of running to 170 before the seasons out, but there aint no way he did that today first time out, altior had to win 5 open company grade 1s before he was budged from 170
170 is beginning to go into the less than 1% category which just simply cant be done as easily as your suggesting
Potentially a Top horse though, wouldnt put anyone off him…
As Phil Smith so often pointed out, there is a difference between a performance figure and a handicap mark. Would I allocate ABP a handicap mark of 172 if he were to run in a handicap next time? No.
For what it’s worth I don’t think the handicappers are representing the true difference in ability between the top horses. There are now way more horses rated 140+ but less horses given the 170+ ratings. That makes no sense.
You can see that this has meant than below grade 1 standard horses such as Frodon are capable of winning competitive and big pot handicaps off 164. Because either their competitors are being rated too highly or because of the handicappers are reluctant to rate anything higher than 170. Would I fancy Kemboy to dish out a beating to Frodon in a level weights race? Every day of the week. You reckon ABP about 162. Would I fancy Frodon to give ABP 3 or 4 pounds and win? Not a hope. To give that class of field either 10 pounds or 3 pounds and a comprehensive hammering took one hell of a performance yesterday. I’d reckon on the basis of the field he beat, the weight difference, and the distance back to the other horses that it was a far superior performance than Frodon beating those second rate handicappers in the Caspian Caviar.Horse wont stay 3m 2f at gold cup pace simple as that hence why it will run in the Ryanair chase.
It’s why it fell last year in the rsa, a tired fall. It’s a 2m4 to 2m6 horse at the top level. It wont run in the gold cup. Anyone backing Al Boum for this race is doing there money as it will not run un this race.
All I’d say about the above is that the ground was horrible on Day 2 of the festival and the Old Course had become very gluey-like horrible sticky ground and 3 miles on that gorund would feel like close to 4 miles on Good Spring Ground. He was definitely tired when he fell
Native River broke the trend last gold cup but prior to his win I think its something like 0 winners from last 30 years of that seasons gold cup had made there seasonal debut after ladbroke.trophy weekend.
Al Boum has made a late seasonal debut, he has failed to complete in 3 of his last 6 races.
In the 3 times he has raced over 3 miles his form figures are RO/F/5th of 8.Yes he would have won had he not ran out but still I wouldn’t trust this horse over 3m2 at gold cup pace.
Regardless of the ground there are some very strong stayers in this years gold cup and 2 of them are trained by Tizzard. This race will be run at a strong pace right from the off. 3m 2f will find him out regardless of the ground as both EE and Native River will keep on running and jumping。
Even at 100/1 I wouldn’t touch Al Boum here not least because I dont believe he will turn up here but also because even.if he does turn up I would be surprised if he could get anywhere near the top 3.
Wherever he goes his jumping will be tested but nowhere more so than in the gold cup.
This article feom today makes a lot of sense in most places bar the not having another run before the gold cup part:
Elegant Escape Cheltenham Gold Cup odds should’ve tumbled like Kemboy or Clan Des Obeaux
By Maryam Naz2nd January 2019
The Christmas period saw the Cheltenham Gold Cup ante-post odds given an almighty shake up, with surprise winners of the King George and the Savills Chase (formerly the Lexus) both slashed in the betting for the Festival showpiece, but a third major festive scorer remains relatively unloved.
Having been introduced to the Gold Cup market at 16/1 in the wake of his silky smooth Boxing Day success, Kempton winner Clan Des Obeaux is now trading at just 13/2, while Kemboy was slashed into 8/1 from 33s after his Fairyhouse victory.
Unlike that pair, Elegant Escape is still as long as 25/1 for the 3m2f Festival highlight, despite taking out another recognised Gold Cup trial, the Welsh Grand National, in fine style.
Bet on the latest Cheltenham Gold Cup ante-post odds with William Hill
Elegant Escape on his way to victory at Chepstow Racecourse
Why Elegant Escape’s Welsh National win suggests he’s Cheltenham Gold Cup class
It may not have been overly hailed at the time, but Colin Tizzard’s seven-year-old put up one of the best weight-carrying performances the Chepstow marathon has seen for many moons to down the David-Pipe-trained Ramses De Teillee by a length and a quarter under 11st 8lbs.
Since Carvill’s Hill did so in 1991, only one horse has carried a heavier burden to victory in the race, subsequent Gold Cup winner Native River (11st 12lbs).
Meanwhile, only two other winners in that time shouldered more than 11st 3lbs, Synchronised and Master Oats, and, you guessed it, both went on to win Cheltenham’s championship for staying chasers.
It’s true that, of the trio of subsequent Gold Cup winners, only Master Oats won both races in the same campaign, with Synchronised and Native River landing the latter a season later.
But, at odds of 25/1 Elegant Escape’s each-way claims are obvious and all the more so given his trainer.
Elegant Escape following a familiar route to the Cheltenham Gold Cup
Ladbrokes Trophy/Welsh Grand National/Denman Chase/Gold Cup. Sound like a familiar itinerary?
It should if you’re a trainer named Tizzard, who steered Native River down precisely such as path in 2017, when the Brocade Racing gelding landed the odds in the first three races before taking a bronze medal at Cheltenham.
Elegant Escape is currently plotting a similar course, but while he only finished a 10-length second in the race formerly known as the Hennessy, he did so carrying fully 9lbs more than his illustrious stablemate, currently 5/1 in this year’s Gold Cup betting, had done when triumphant in 2016.
With owner JP Romans reportedly keen to target the Cheltenham race, it would be no great surprise to see Elegant Escape go straight to the Festival.
Native River was able to improve on his 2017 third to win the Gold Cup 2018 off the back of a one-race build up, compared to four runs the previous season.
As such it would seem logical that Tizzard should save his latest Welsh National winner for Cheltenham now, rather than attempt to fit in a run at Newbury in the interim.
THE ELEGANT ERA HAS ALREADY BEGUN
GREATEST CHASER OF ALL TIME
Potato,
If my selection Might Bite, doesn’t make it to Cheltenham or under performs in a manner unbefitting of his quality then I would love nothing more than to see Elegant Escape win. I think it might be the most popular victory on the entire forum. I really hope he runs his race for you.
By the way, what is your real name? Addressing you as Potato, whilst amusing, always feels a little insulting, in a comedic way, which I’m sure is why you chose the pseudonym. Can you peel the potato to reveal the man?
On the chances of Elegant Escape winning, I think it’s similar to Native River and hence I think the article does indeed hold some interest. If it were to turn up very soft (or heavy) and bring stamina into play then I can see Elegant Escape pitching in with a real challenge. If the ground isn’t soft or heavy then I’m afraid I can’t. Good luck though. As I say, there would be a lot of humble pie being eaten if it happens.
My name is Paul though Potato.is absolutely fine.
In a perfect world the ground will be soft at cheltenham though both good and good to soft ground and I still believe Elegant Escape will win.
The team cannot wait to see EE in the denman chase assuming he goes there.
In less than 2 1/2 months time this horse will be ready to peak and a career best run looks certain in the biggest race of them all.
You know a horse is a little bit special when he uses the current gold cup champion and an ex king george winner as his pacemaker.
I love when someone has conviction; you had plenty of conviction last year and the RSA thread was one of the best threads with all your poetry and confidence; but you never posted after the race which I was disappointed by. It would have been interesting to hear where you thought the horse fell down in the RSA but unfortunately you went off the grid which was a pity. Here is a snippet of some of the nuggets you came out with in last years RSA thread;
“You don’t understand ham. It’s irrelevant that there were no Irish runners in the ultima.
For a first season novice chaser to turn up at the festival and take on high class battle hardened top end experienced handicappers and beat them aged just 6yo is some performance and a massive pointer to just how good EE is. Career best performance coming up shortly.
This boy will blow the Irish away”“Today is the day
That the legend wins the RSA
I see every man and his dog in the media has now jumped on board and is tipping up the wonder horse.
THE ERA OF ELEGANT ESCAPE HAS ARRIVED
Race fans are in for a huge treat today.
People have been saying that they will NEVER see a better chaser than Arkle.
They won’t be saying that anymore after the race.”I said before the race.
“I have done all.of my talking before the race and I’m not the type to do my talking after”.
Or something very similar. Of course I was expecting it to win and by that comment I meant I wasn’t the type to come on after and say “I told you so, i was right”.
But I applied the comment in defeat as well. Although as an ew bet that I advised people to do at 33/1 it was a highly.successful bet that paid 8.25/1 on the place side so far from a disaster. Though personally most of my bets on the horse were win bets.
I’m not sure anything went wrong in the RSA, in hindsight he was the youngest horse in the race, he was no match.for presenting percy who I clearly under estimated as he was much more forward and talented than I gave him credit for.
But it was a good performance from EE and the experience and lesson he learnt that day will be a huge asset to him in the gold cup.
Was just a touch young ultimately but he has filled out this time round and is jumping better and with more rhythm.I rate Harry Cobden as a jockey but EE seems to respond better to Tom O Brien. Perhaps Harry should have been a bit more aggressive in his riding with EE
but ultimately I give no blame to harry at all and he is a cracking jockey.Harry Cobdens record on EE:
2/3/3/1
Tom Scudamores record on EE:
2/2
TOM O Briens record on EE:
1/1/1/2
Only defeat coming at Kempton where he hated the track and looked beat after first half circuit. was a Miracle Tom got him to a fast closing 2nd on the line.
Tom just seems to get a better tune out of this horse and seems to be capable.of getting him.in a better jumping rhythm and of course he has progressed greatly from his novice season, has filled out his frame and is continuing to improve.
The heroic weight carrying performances of the ladbrokes and Welsh national have announced to the world that this is a serious gold cup contender but it’s almost certain he will massively improve again for the big day which must be a very scary thought for all other trainers.Every single trainer out there would want to be in Tizzards position going into this gold cup with the defending champ native river and the new kid on the block.Elegant Escape.
What a battle awaits on March 15th, this will be a phenomenal race that will live in the memory for eternity.Horses can talk horse language and dont forget Elegant Escape has been spoken to and learnt from Cue Card and Native River, Thistlecrack etc etc.etc.
THE BOY IS NOW READY TO BECOME A MAN
IN ELEGANT ESCAPE WE TRUST
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.