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I was looking at top speed not OR on the race card for sutton place. My mistake in my defence it was 5 14am. That one not the best example.
Definitely Red beat Native River 10 lengths going away in the weatherby novice. Yes NR was giving him 7lb but that form clearly shows that Definitely Red would beat NR off level weights should they ever meet in a gold cup.
No Jack EE would be a terrible horse for the grand national. It’s been 79 years since a 7yo won the national.
In the future he certainly could win.a grand national.though it’s going to.have to be off a mark of 180 plus after he has won 2 gold cups so.it certainly wont be easy but as the greatest chaser of all time then yes he can do it.
Definitely Red beat Native River 10 lengths going away in the weatherby novice. Yes NR was giving him 7lb but that form clearly shows that Definitely Red would beat NR off level weights should they ever meet in a gold cup.
They’ve already met in a GC potato- 39Ls he was beaten……perhaps back to the drawing board for you!!
He has never ran an RPR of 170, so quite clearly limited i would say.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!And you can never say ‘ clearly ‘ after one race between two horses.
These straw man arguments aren’t helping the discussion, potato.
They’ve already met in a GC potato- 39Ls he was beaten……perhaps back to the drawing board for you!!He has never ran an RPR of 170, so quite clearly limited i would say
You will be telling me next Jack that clan Des Obeaux has won a king george.
You will be telling me next Jack that clan Des Obeaux has won a king george.
Quite hard to work you out on a forum Potato- i feel you are possibly a troll + taking the p?
Or, you just get a lot of things wrong?
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!I think there are some sound arguments being put forward by Potato. The point about EE being a year younger in the RSA than the other horses would suggest EE has more scope for improvement. Hence, even it is quite likely he would improve more than Presenting Percy, particularly given we haven’t even seen him this season.
EE has form in the book this year and has certainly gained useful experience this year too which will hold him in good stead.
He is definitely being aimed at the race and is likely to have T O’Brien onboard what with Cobden being on Clan Des Obeaux.
Good ground would definitely work against him but you never know……
Being a year younger does not entitle you to have more scope for improvement, not when your talking about 5 or 6 year olds, he also DOES NOT have the form in the book this season to even place in a gold cup, that was an incredibly bad welsh national and totally incomparible in any sense to native rivers), as ive stated yala enki gave EE enough weight to suggest that off levels he would have been right upsides him, that is not good enough form to even consider running in a gold cup and you cant say looking at the finish he had alot left to give.
He simply cannot reverse the form with presenting percy based on any of his outings this season, he already has a stone to find from last season assuming that presenting percy does not improve one single ounce which is highly, highly unlikely, PP would have to underperform a fair bit.
a horse thats going to improve from rsa excluding the fav is al boum photo who is the same age as EE (not that it matters about age) based on his first run of the season if the form stacks up, hes already bettered everything EE has done this season and up until this point in general on his first outing. Thats not an opinion, thats a fact, based on or’s
good luck CNC!
Being a year younger does not entitle you to have more scope for improvement
Even in a staying chaser? Other horses the same age as EE with entries in the Gold Cup are:
Al Boum Photo – rated 153 at the time of Cheltenham last year and is 159 now after a soft FTO race. So Mar 2018 to now = +6
Clan des Obeaux didn’t run at Chelt but rated 155 at that time and 173 now ie +18
Frodon- a not over-big well exposed non novice last year was 162 at Chel, 169 now +7
Kemboy was rated 145 at the time of Cheltenham and 167 now (yes inflated due to falsely run Lexus but still) +22
Mister Whitaker 137 at Chel,. 152 now total +17
Elegant Escape himself is now rated +6 more than he was at the start of the RSA
8yos with Gold Cup entries in addition to Presenting Percy (+7) with their March 18 to now ratings are:
Balko des Flos -2
Black Corton 0
Bristol de Mai +8
Invitation Only 0
Monalee +6
Monbeg Notorious 0 but hasn’t run yet
Road to Respect +1
The Storyteller +11
Shattered Love +11A small sample size but I would say a staying chaser has more scope for improvement from 6 to 7 than 7 to 8. That doesn’t mean I think a 7yo is more likely to win the Gold Cup and of course there are flaws in my reasoning- youngsters are less exposed so more prone to rating hikes when they do start keeping better company.
“He’s a good horse. We’ve been very fortunate the last few years having horses like Cue Card, Native River and Thistlecrack,” Tizzard added.
“This boy is not too far behind them now. He’s only a six-year-old.
Trainers do very often talk a load of rubbish publically but Tizzard means this comment that he made post Welsh national win.
6yo yet Only just behind:
Cue Card- Winner of 11 grade 1s, many believe he would have won the gold cup had he not fell 3 out in 2016. Officially rated 176 at his peak.
Thistlecrack – Winner of 5 grade 1 races and rated 171 at his best. Currently 170.
Native River- Winner of 2 grade 1s one of which being the gold cup. Officially rated 176 after gc win.
Tizzard knows a thing or two about staying chasers and he says the 6yo is only just behind these 3 cheltenham legends.
2 1/2 months to progress catch up and pass these greats which is entirely plausible given his development and progress so far this season, he is horse on a serious upward curve this season.They really think a lot of this horse and rightly so. I firmly believe the Tizzards think that Elegant Escape is there number 1 in this year’s gold cup though I dont think there is any chance that they will come out and say that publically.
As for the welsh national being weak this is completely untrue and not based on facts. This years welsh national was in fact very strong.
The pace of this years welsh natinal was very strong and Elegant Escape carrying a large weight raced up with the pace. Usually when a race like this is ran at such a strong pace then the prominent racers will collapse and the hold up horses will take advantage. EE kept on running though.
Elegant Escapes time was 1.3 seconds faster than Native Rivers welsh national time but EES race was ran 5 seconds faster (about 25 lengths ahead) going into the final circuit
As they took the first fence in the final home straight EEs race was still 4.5 seconds ahead (about 22.5 lengths ahead of native rivers race). It was fairly slow motion stuff at the end unsurprisingly given the ferocious pace this race was ran at though I think if anything had of come at EE then he was capable of finding more if required.
An amazing performance by the first three home as all of them raced prominently in the race. All 3 are horses to follow closely.
This was an extremely strong welsh national. It’s a fact.
The handicapper has under estimated EEs performance and the betting public have under estimated this horse
however
The Team are ready and are going for gold.
THERE IS NO ESCAPE
FROM THE ELEGANT ONE 
Ham,
I’m not saying EE will reverse the form with Presenting Percy – in fact I don’t think he will either. But I do think a younger horse has more scope for improvement. Paul Nicholls was recently quoted as saying as much after Frodon’s recent victory at Cheltenham.
To finish second in a Ladbroke Trophy when being the second highest horse in the handicap and then to win the Welsh National when third highest in the handicap is solid form. Absolutely, had he romped home in a Group 1 against Group 1 horses that would be much stronger form but at the same time I don’t think it should be dismissed.
I’m not convinced EE will place in the Gold Cup either but I know a forum contributor who does…..
In the last 25 years 3 horses have won the welsh grand national carrying 11 stone plus/rated 150 plus and raced in the cheltenham gold cup.
All 3 WON the cheltenham gold cup.
This is a devastating fact that should send chills down the spine of anybody who has backed any other horse who’s name is not Elegant Escape for this race.
The team have been doing press ups, sit ups, squat thrusts we have been running. We are better now we are stronger than ever before and our time is almost upon us.
WE ARE TEAM ELEGANT ESCAPE
WE ARE READY IF YOU THOUGHT ARKLE WAS GOOD
WAIT TIL YOU SEE ELEGANT ESCAPE BLOODIF KAUTO STAR MADE YOU SAY GOD DAMN
JUST WAIT TIL YOU SEE THE ELEGANT ONE FAM If EE is not far behind Thistlecrack then he’s still behind a fast improving Clan Des Obeaux is he not? For all your enthusiasm and confidence in EE, this is a forum where all opinions should matter and not dismissed after all. This thread has already been turned into a shrine to EE, might be fitting if all those dreams are dead come that Friday afternoon. The way you talk potato is like he’s already won 3 gold cups, confidence in a horses ability is one thing, but do you not think predicting the future so confidently is a little folly? Anything can happen on the day, the greatest thing about horse racing, especially national hunt, is the unpredictability of any race, let alone a gold cup. You must be a rich man already if your punting matches up to your beliefs, but like any other punter, I seriously doubt that. Good luck either way, and I admire your enthusiasm, but even for me, this thread is no longer a constructive one.
Given the Gold Cup can really take it out of a horse the season after, there must be a chance some of the contenders from last year are very much worth taking on. The ground last year perhaps makes this even more important. I wonder whether the horses with a nice soft campaign this year will benefit like Native River did last year?
Might Bite is already looking goosed.
Native River has run below par slightly this year, probably under not perfect conditions both times, so he’s hard to place with certainty under this rule, but at his price it’s worth considering.
Anibale Fly, could fall under this category, but running in a GC + GN last season surely will test his longevity?
Road To Respect- given his owners are giggy, he was unlikely to be allowed to have a short campagign.
Presenting Percy fits this theory nicely, and his novice form isn’t bad- 4s is short and would put me off him for now.
Clan Des Obeaux having won KG is a big contender, and is very young- he had a light campaign last year, due to a layoff.
I haven’t quite put my finger on what i like yet, but this might be a theory i’ll follow.
To try and get this thread back on track i am going to continue on from this.
Kemboy- clearly a very talented horse, but i think he’s more a Ryanair horse this year. He has quite a lot of speed + likes to be prominent. I don’t get the feeling he’s the horse that will change Mullin’s voodoo with the GC. In fact, i think he’s an example of the reason Mullin’s struggles here. No doubt he has nice chasers, but a lot of them are these FR bred and i don’t think they exactly suit this race.
Thistlecrack- i left him off my initial list as i think the ground is key to him to have any sort of chance. If it is g/s good, he will travel well and the last furlong or so will be the question. Any worse and he’s no hope IMO. Lightly campaigned recently, but more due to health, so a negative if anything.
Al Boum Photo- Lightly raced and very high on the list based on potential IMO. I have always loved the horse, but i do have a nagging doubt about his jumping standing up to this. It can be quite inconsistent. However, as already said, hes lightly raced and will be on my shortlist.
Elegant Escape- thought i’d bring him in the part of the post, as age has been used in a few posts above. Which is true, he’s a young horse, but so is Al Boum Photo + he’s shown classier form to date. However, in saying that, Elegant Escape is a blatent stayer/plodder and that can often be a positive in this race. The trainer has a good idea of what it takes to win this, however, i’d like to hear a more bullish Tizzard in regards to hsi chances. So far he’s proven he’s a high class staying handicapper on soft ground. If the GC turns up soft he’ll have a chance and at 33s he’s not the worst bet. Does anyone know is he due to run again?
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!If EE is not far behind Thistlecrack then he’s still behind a fast improving Clan Des Obeaux is he not? For all your enthusiasm and confidence in EE, this is a forum where all opinions should matter and not dismissed after all. This thread has already been turned into a shrine to EE, might be fitting if all those dreams are dead come that Friday afternoon. The way you talk potato is like he’s already won 3 gold cups, confidence in a horses ability is one thing, but do you not think predicting the future so confidently is a little folly? Anything can happen on the day, the greatest thing about horse racing, especially national hunt, is the unpredictability of any race, let alone a gold cup. You must be a rich man already if your punting matches up to your beliefs, but like any other punter, I seriously doubt that. Good luck either way, and I admire your enthusiasm, but even for me, this thread is no longer a constructive one.
Of course EE is behind Clan Des Obeaux (14lb according to handicapper) and a whole lot of others according to OR? After winning the race he will be above all of them though.
Or are you saying the horse with the highest OR is going to win every race, the horse with the 2nd highest rating will come 2nd. Sorry to break this to you but it doesnt always work out like that.
All opinions do matter? (that includes mine)however opinions should be dismissed or agreed with as applicable. It’s called debate and its healthy. It would be so boring if everybody agreed with each other. Questioning opinions and disagreeing is healthy as long as it’s done in a way where personal attacks aren’t used (please dont attack me again).
You say the greatest thing about NH racing is the unpredictability of it yet you have made 272 posts on a racing forum where the majority of posts are ultimately about PREDICTING the outcome of races. The irony isnt lost on me.
I have never claimed to be a rich man nor have I claimed to be a poor one or anywhere in between? I talk horse racing not about personal worth. One.of the most knowledgable punters I have ever know backed 50p we one of the biggest mugs I have ever known backed tens of thousands of pounds a bet sometimes. He was very rich from owning a marketing company. Did not have a clue what he was doing reference horses though.
You claim this thread is no longer a constructive one yet you have bought nothing at all to the table except some dig at me?
Perhaps I come across as a little different to the other posters here and I dont apologize for that. Maybe you dont like my poems or my brash confidence on EE that’s fine.
There was a man in history who wanted everybody to be the same, blonde hair and blue eyes. His name was adolf.
How about you embrace the diversity, go on give it a go.
But if you are coming to a thread titled gold cup 2019 at least bring something gold cup racing related to it.
The dig at you was regarding the reams and reams of ‘we are Elegant Escape, we will win the next 3 gold cuos, move over Kauto Star’, shall I continue? That’s not debate on a gold cup thread…and I doubt I’m the only one fed up of reading ream after ream if the same old stuff. Didn’t you say you would never post again if EE didn’t win the RSA? I found you infectious at first, love enthusiasm, but now if anyone has an opinion on your posting they are only digging at you? That’s not my style, but perhaps you will go quiet after the horse doesn’t even place. You have taken up perhaps 80% if this thread, do you not see the point?
No I didnt say that I would never post again if EE didnt win.
I said I would never post again if he won for once he has won I am done.
Feel free to actually verify these claims you make.
No I dont see the point to briefly summarise.
Please dont reply again unless you are bringing something gold cup related to the thread. Nobody wants to read some bizarre internet fight.
Move on smile. It’s a brand new day.
Yes it is, and no I won’t say anymore, sorry for misreading all you have said.
Gold Cup related, based on the improvement from the betfair to the king George, if he improves again he will be a huge player for the gold cup if he sees out the extra distance. Clan Des Obeaux at 33/1, young improving horse, and Nicholls knows how to train a gold cup winner or two.
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