Grand National 2018

A Genie In ABottle is a soft or heavy ground horse.

In a wide open year, at 80/1, I’m willing to throw a few quid at him based on your confidence he will run well ATP.

Fancy Gold Present (If he doesn’t bleed again) and Annibale Fly more than anything else at this stage.

A Genie looks a good spot indeed from a form perspective. My worry would be that he’s never got within 20lbs of his best Racing Post Rating in a double figure field.

Backed Anibale Fly after connections stated their intention to run a week or so after Cheltenham.

Clearly handles a big field and has strong form in both handicaps and at the top level. Seems to appreciate ground with plenty of give but at the same time I wouldn’t want it to get too testing carrying 11’7. If it comes up soft to heavy I will add another further down the weights. Vintage Clouds would be interesting but must be doubtful of getting in.

Article about Gold Present from the Randox Health Grand National website “official sponsors of the Grand National ”

https://www.randoxhealthgrandnational.co.uk/gold-present-could-provide-randox-health-grand-national-glory-for-henderson/#MY743mLtpIhADzA5.97

Aintree management would opt for a soft ground rather than good ground National to keep speed down. Even if the weather turns fair they will water.

I personally find it hard to make a strong case for the Genie. He was especially well backed for last year’s 4 miler at Cheltenham before finishing a tame 5th (chased leaders on inside, lost place 5th, not fluent next, niggled along 17th, headway approaching 3 out, outpaced on inside before next, no impression, weakened before last ) and was merely 9th in the Hennessy when sent off a 10/1 shot trailing in 39 lengths behind Total Recall. As for the Bellshill form, let’s not forget Val De Ferbet (who was 3rd that day) has been hammered out of sight on his previous 2 starts and Bellshill didn’t run away to be an easy winner of the Irish National – he finished 5th. Not too mention Lord Scoundrel pulled up. I may well have egg on my face in 2 weeks time but the Genie doesn’t scream ‘National winner’ to me.

I’ve decided to commit to Rathvinden as I can see the price cutting at the 5 day mark. 20’s EW and 94’s on the Exchange will do me just fine as a saver.

With the potential of a soft or worse National on our hands I’m just starting to cool on Saint Are who needs real spring ground. Lord Windermere is another i’m beginning to go off slightly. I don’t like light campaigns in a National horse and one run (an uncompleted run at that) is simply not enough and with Leighton Aspel off injured he’s slowly losing the boxes he had ticked before. I’m already on at 112’s and 50’s EW, but am not likely to top up on the day, unlike some of my other bets.

If it comes up soft or worse on the day i’ll be adding Maggio who is crying out for this trip and could have good place potential.

I will take this time to state my case for Houblon Des Obeaux. His form figures don’t look outstanding and some might suggest he is regressing. However what I’ve seen this season is a horse being run over trips at least half a mile shorter than his best. He’s run six times this season which might look a lot on paper, but none of them are what I would call ‘hard’ races. Competitive? Yes, some. But hard? I wouldn’t say so. In fact I’d say he’s had a comparatively softer season than last year where he ran only four times, but each one being long distance mudfests where he carried near enough top weight each time. Something he won’t be doing here.

Four of his six runs this season have been over 3 miles which has seen him outpaced each time before staying on strongest at the finish. His win in November was certainly reassuring, but the most promising of these runs was his third at Hereford in January. Perhaps not the strongest of races, but the way he finished that day was what really stuck with me. He was carrying 12-1 that day and was giving 13lbs to the winner who only had 2 1/4 lengths on him at the line. The handicapper put him up 2lbs for that, which may be a blessing as he may have struggled to get in otherwise. To my blatantly biased eye; it’s runs like these that show he still have a taste for the game.

His two runs over more suitable trips saw him finish 6th and pulled up, however excuses can be made for both occasions. Ground conditions were against him in the Classic Chase where he again finished with a wet sail and his Eider run can have a line put through as simply an off day, something every horse is entitled to.

Lastly his run in last years race was much better than his finishing position suggests. The ground was far, far too lively for him and he wasn’t given the most enterprising ride; held up throughout before storming home after the last. His best runs have come from being prominent and keeping out of trouble. Charlie Deutsch simply didn’t ride him to his best effect. In more suitable, softer (perhaps not heavy) conditions and with a more positive ride; I simply can’t see anything but a big run from a horse who has had Grand National written all over him since his United House Gold Cup win… a race he won off the same mark that he has in this!

I’m convincing myself more than I am anyone else, but there are far worse outsiders in this and his trainer knows how to send out soft ground marathon winners and is very experienced in sending out 100/1 winners of this race!

Love this boy.

Although an old favourite of mine, I can’t get away from Road To Riches. Of course his form has completely tailed off the past couple of seasons, but due to this has absolutely plummeted in the weights. Off 142, a step up in trip, the novelty of Aintree, Meade in decent form, all of this could spark a revival and at 66/1 nrnb 5 places is well worth a tenner each way, maybe more if it starts to dry out a bit. Instead of carrying the usual 11’10 in grade 1’s he will be carrying 10’4 over the furthest he’s been, all in all I think it’s worth a speculative punt.