Grand National 2018

Got my price for chase the spud and hoping he can make a half decent start today

Steeplechasing wrote:

Tizz suggested that Native River’s owners are becoming less insistent about never running in the National. He also plans a quieter year for the horse on the way to the Gold Cup.

Not surprised, Joe. Lighter campaign doesn’t just suggest the Grand National is a possibility, it suggests this will be a major target (running in it is now probable). Noticed for a while now Native River has been quite a bit bigger for the Gold Cup on the exchanges than he is with bookmakers… And strangely bigger than others with about the same chance of winning the March showpiece. And if Thistlecrack were to make it to Cheltenham as favourite then imo Native River might even go straight to Aintree. He’s absolutely made for the job! Goes on good just as well as soft, races prominently, won at the meeting (3m Novice), effective at 3m2f (on goodish ground you don’t want a one paced plodder) won Hennessey and placed in the Gold Cup and stays extreme distances (won Welsh National)… Jumps brilliantly and will probably be given a workable weight – handicapper Phil Smith’s last National and he’d love the top weight to win. Despite top weight is Still unexposed as a stayer. Reminds me a lot of Many Clouds.

Just taken some 25/1+.

VtC, Tiger Roll has an entry to the Cross Country at Cheltenham on Friday.

I mention this because as we know, this was the route Cause of Causes went down at the Festival en route to placing in the National.

Both horses are trained by Gordon Elliot…I wonder whether Tiger Roll is being aimed at the big fences in April…or maybe I’m reading something that isn’t there…

Does anyone give Pleasant Company a chance at 40/1?

He was ninth last year after being backed into 11/1 on the day. He was 25/1 early doors last time around but was cut in after winning the Bobbyjo Chase.

He had been due to run in the Ladbroke Steeplechase ultimately won by stablemate Total Recall but was pulled out. He didn’t reappear until January last season and having only had seven chases and won three of them he’s pretty unexposed.

I am wondering if 40/1 may look big if he reappears and wins?

Pulled out on the morning because of the travelling issue i forget what it was now, mullins has always indicated he has a big race in him

Hes won on heavy, Atleast handles cut, may not prefer it.

I couldnt have him just because he has run in it already, but 40/1, cant see him being that on the day if he were to run though, certainly has a chance, but not for me

Ps, you can get some 55s/50s about him on the exchanges atm steve and 13s for a place, slightly better than standard,although not for much!

I wonder if this will be the season the Pipes try Un Temps Pour Tout in the National. He comes good in the spring, stays well and I think he’d take to the race well. It’s worth them considering as he’ll be a 9 year old if competing in it next year and it may be quite a winnable renewal.

I’ll be one punter not getting involved on Blaklion though. In recent year’s I’ve tended to stay away from horses who have already had a go at the National and come up short. I think Hedgehunter was the last winner to triumph on his second attempt and that’ll be 13 years ago come April.

I have absolutely no idea what David Pipe is planning. His father was often accused of a scatter gun approach but you could often spot a plot. David…his strike rate is generally mediocre and the only thing I expect is a handicap winner at the festival.

I’m pretty sure Comply Or Die was a forum National pick on here prior to his victory in the Eider.

I think Blaklion will have to much weight but possibly obtain a gallant top six finish. I’ll study the race over Christmas but agree that Pleasant Company looks good at 40s and will only shorten barring injury

This is what I said about Pleasant Company in my Grand National write up last year:

21. 149 Pleasant Company 413P1-41 Willie Mullins (8/10) 9 10-12 **** Ruby Walsh 22/1
Ruby seemed at pains to win by the narrowest of margins on Pleasant Company last time out (3m1f heavy) in the Bobbyjoe Chase. Last of 9 early and content to be around 15 lengths adrift 5 out, still going well at the final fence with a length to make up on Fairyhouse’s short run-in before finally going for everything. Superiority much greater than ½ length over runner-up Thunder And Roses (level weights) although run of the race suited Pleasant Company far more. Exaggerated waiting tactics probably due to nearly giving it away in the Pat Taaffe (3m1f good-yielding). Led 3 out, clear, looking likely to win easily, pricked ears and cut back near line, ¾ length to spare with Regal Encore (who’s now 2 lbs worse off). Raced prominently when amateur ridden and too keen in 2016 4m novice (good-soft) only time he’s raced beyond 3m1f. Different horse hooded nowadays, held up and settles better. Not the easiest of rides, but if anyone can win on him – Ruby can. Pleasant Company coming here on a career high and characteristics mean it’s difficult for the handicapper to know what Pleasant Company has in hand; could be well or poorly handicapped. Lightly raced and inexperienced for a race like this.