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I think you are right to be concerned Nausered. There is rain today and later this week, and whilst,
as you mentioned Mike, it’s to be better next week they still have some midweek. Looking at Turftrax
to see the state of the ground anywhere nearby, the 2 closest this week are Catterick (admittedly over
100 miles) where the ground is heavy and waterlogged in places, and Wetherby (under 100 miles) who have
had to cancel their meeting on Friday due to flooding. I know They are more central whereas Aintree is
on the west coast, but in general everywhere seems to be heavy in general. From what I can gather I
understand that Aintree is generally heavy at the moment. The National is only 10 days away and even
with the rain forecast I can’t see how it is going to be better than heavy, if there is more rain than
they forecast (although that never happens
) it is going to be very testing. Quite a few have mentioned they don’t want more rain and others that their horses want decent good spring ground.I think there is a fair chance that many could be withdrawn because of conditions, which wouldn’t do
one of mine, Mysteree, any harm as he needs 20 to come out and bottomless ground would boost his chances.Is there anyone down that way that can give any update
There’s a lot more rain about than this article states but the current ground doesn’t sound too bad although i do take this with a pinch of salt as Aintree won’t want to alarm people too early.
I hadn’t seen that article Kev, it gives a more upbeat view from the Clerk of The Course,
but I seem to recall Cheltenham giving similar assurances before the festival. Personally
I’d be surprised if it turns out to be better than heavy/soft in places. Fontwell is the only
turf meeting to survive (at this point) before Saturday, and on Saturday both Kelso and
Uttoxeter are heavy. Could be a bit of wishful thinking by the COTC.A couple of dry days in a row and it can soon swing round at this time of year. Met office forecast for next 7 days is 6 dry days with a fair amount of rain dropping on Sat. I think at worst it will be soft dependant on what Thurs and Fri of next week looks like
William Hill’s offering of 44/1 about Pleasant Company was good enough to delve into as my first cash bet in the race.
I still can’t shake the fact that he was traveling supremely well before belting Valentine’s second time around and putting pay to any chance he had. He was sent off a well backed 11/1 shot for this last year and Mullins seemed keen to plot a light campaign with the idea of coming back for another go. He’s in off a lighter rating and weight this year and still a 10 year old is prime National age.
Up to two now.
Pleasant Company 44/1 (William Hill)
Regal Encore 33/1 (2x Free bets from Bet365)Obviously this list will grow a darn site more come next Friday night!
Fresh from my blog:
This is my third tip (so far) for the Randox Health Grand National on April 14th. As De Mee, my first, has been withdrawn, injured; hopefully most readers took the 50/1 NRNB that one.
Milansbar, tip number two, now looks as though he will definitely get in the race with Bryony Frost riding and should go off much shorter than the advised 50/1. Looking through the field again today for more value, I see one who looks potentially overpriced by some way – Virgilio, Dan Skelton’s horse – who’s available at 100/1 NRNB (non runner, no bet).
Most potential National bets are prominent in the minds of punters; horses like Saint Are and The Last Samuri who have run well there in the past. Or classier types like Minella Rocco or Blaklion. Most punters will not have heard of Virgilio; indeed, it was only when he caught my eye with his weight of 10.7 and his good trainer that I dived a bit more deeply into his form.
Skelton appears to have held the horse in pretty high regard when Virgilio was younger (he’s 9). He won his first two races in Britain (Skelton has had him since the horse came from France), the first a Class 3 handicap by 12 lengths, and the second, a Class 2 Handicap (at Aintree) by 6 lengths (fav both times). He started the next season with his hat-trick win, again at Aintree in another Class 2 Handicap before moving up to Grade 2 in the Relkeel at Cheltenham where he started 5/1 third fav but was pulled up, the trainer citing a breathing problem (Skelton was later to say the horse would not go back to Cheltenham as it was not his track).
Virgilio then dropped back into handicap company at Aintree, carrying joint top weight of 11.12 off a handicap mark of 148 to finish 5th of 22, keeping on toward the finish. Since then, he has not run again over hurdles. Virgilio finished that 2015/16 season by making his debut over fences, easily winning a Class 4 at Warwick by 13 lengths and he began the following season with a Class 2 victory at Newton Abbott.
Returning to Grade 2 company for the first time since the Relkeel, he was 7/4 and was pulled up in the three-horse Rising Stars Novices Chase won by Frodon. The Racing Post analyst simply says that the horse ran as if amiss (it was his first run right handed in Britain). The Skeltons kept the faith with another Grade 2 run at Newbury next time where Virgilio made a couple of crucial errors, although he would not have beaten the impressive winner Clan Des Obeaux.
Next time saw him back right handed at Kempton where he finished a fortunate second in the Kauto Star the day Might Bite fell when well clear at the last. He challenged Might Bite again next time in his first Grade 1 outing, the Mildmay Novices Chase at Aintree where he was well beaten in 3rd, although he had a very stiff task at levels with Might Bite and Whisper who was second. Might Bite beat him 20 lengths and Whisper beat him 18.
Virgilio finished last season with yet another run at Aintree, and another win over 3m 1f, by 7 lengths, his jumping that day suggesting he was really getting the hang of the chasing game. North to Aintree again in November last year for his seasonal debut and back down in trip to 2m 4f, he ran quite poorly and then pulled up 5 weeks’ later at Doncaster back over 3 miles. He was strong in the market that day in December; in the lengthy lay off since then, Virgilio has had wind surgery
On the face of his limited fencing experience, especially in big fields, and his form this season, I can see why 100/1 is available. But in view of his age and what still looks untapped potential, allied to the faith the Skeltons appear to have in him, and the fact that he’s been operated on for his wind, I think he’s well worth an each way bet on the NRNB basis. There’s also the fact that the flat track seems to suit him well; he’s won 3 from 6 at Aintree (NB: for those who are occasional punters, Aintree’s Grand National course is a separate one from its ‘standard’ course which is known as The Mildmay Course, the one on which Virgilio has appeared so far).
His jumping style, to my eye, looks well suited to the Grand National fences. Stamina is another question. He’s by Denham Red, the sire of Un De Sceaux, a 16f to 20f top-notcher, but also the sire of Ouzbeck, who won the Summer National over 3m 4f at Uttoxeter in 2010. As noted, Virgilio has won over 3m 1f; the only other winning progeny of his dam Liesse De Marbeuf, did not race over as far as 3 miles in Britain or Ireland.
“Recommended bet”: each way Virgilio for the Randox Health Grand National at 100/1 with Bet Bet365 who offer 1/4 odds first five and money back if the horse does not run.
A Genie in a Bottle found dead:
A horse who was being aimed at next week’s Grand National was found dead in his box on Friday, the apparent result of a mystery illness that had been affecting him in recent days. A Genie In Abottle, who won two races this season for his trainer, Noel Meade, had been a general 50-1 shot for the Aintree race.
“We’d been a bit worried about him but the vets couldn’t find out what was wrong with him,” Meade said from his yard in County Meath, north of Dublin. “It was obviously very serious because we found him on the floor of his box this afternoon.”
A tough stayer who started favourite for the National Hunt Chase at last year’s Cheltenham Festival, A Genie In Abottle was good enough to beat Tiger Roll in a Listed steeplechase in the autumn. He was last seen when second to Bellshill at Fairyhouse in February.
Meade is now likely to run Road To Riches in the National, as the veteran seems likely to make the final cut of 40 runners. Sean Flanagan will ride the 11-year-old, who was third to Coneygree in the 2015 Cheltenham Gold Cup.
The Guardian
Poor horse, I hope he didn’t suffer too much. Although if he was found dead in the afternoon hopefully it meant he went down quickly without much of a struggle. RIP Genie.
RIP
Can see why you like Virgilio Steeplechasing. Looks to be one where we haven’t quite seen his best yet.
With my small bet back NRNB on Agenieinabottle, I’ve topped up Anibale Fly. The latter is also in a double with current Masters Leader Patrick Reed which would certainly make next week interesting.
When you look at trends you can eliminate most of the field.
Over the past 30 years, 23 of the winners were aged between 9 and 11…..9 year & 10 year olds winning 8 races and 11 year olds winning 7 races. Only 4 horses have carried more than 11 stone.
18 of the last 30 winners carried between 10-6 and 11-0
When you eliminate all horses that fail to meet these trends it doesn’t leave any horse priced lower than 20/1. If you then look at starting prices only 3 of the last 30 have been over 33/1….eliminate these and you are left with Ucello Conti,Pleasant Company,See You at Midnight,Regal Encore,Vieux Lion Rouge & Vincente as most likely winners.Those trends would also eliminate 4 of the last 8 winners; including 2 of the last 3. The compressed weights, softer fences and reduced distance has bucked a lot of old trends in recent years.
Potentially a quarter of the field either owned by JP or Gigginstown…
Hoping it doesn’t cut up too badly to keep race from being monopolized by the same bunch of owners. If Double Ross is the bottom one I’ll be happy.
When you look at trends you can eliminate most of the field.
Over the past 30 years, 23 of the winners were aged between 9 and 11…..9 year & 10 year olds winning 8 races and 11 year olds winning 7 races. Only 4 horses have carried more than 11 stone.
18 of the last 30 winners carried between 10-6 and 11-0
When you eliminate all horses that fail to meet these trends it doesn’t leave any horse priced lower than 20/1. If you then look at starting prices only 3 of the last 30 have been over 33/1….eliminate these and you are left with Ucello Conti,Pleasant Company,See You at Midnight,Regal Encore,Vieux Lion Rouge & Vincente as most likely winners.I think the Grand National ran over the longest distance and the most runners under rules is extremely trend friendly, (with a little common sense about occasional runners), but trends using odds I’ve never taken too. The horse doesn’t know what price it is and the jockey shouldn’t care. Odds are a secondary factor.
I found good form in large field a must, and really long trips.
I think Milansbar who ran really good races in the Warwick Classic and then Midlands National a real contender.
You've got to accentuate the positive.
Eliminate the negative.
Latch on to the affirmative.
Don't mess with mister in between.So far
45/1 Gas Line Boy
75/1 Carlingford Lough
130/1 Houblon des ObeauxI think I will add one on the day. I hope the ground doesn’t get too soft.
When you look at trends you can eliminate most of the field.
Over the past 30 years, 23 of the winners were aged between 9 and 11…..9 year & 10 year olds winning 8 races and 11 year olds winning 7 races. Only 4 horses have carried more than 11 stone.
18 of the last 30 winners carried between 10-6 and 11-0
When you eliminate all horses that fail to meet these trends it doesn’t leave any horse priced lower than 20/1. If you then look at starting prices only 3 of the last 30 have been over 33/1….eliminate these and you are left with Ucello Conti,Pleasant Company,See You at Midnight,Regal Encore,Vieux Lion Rouge & Vincente as most likely winners.Races of “30 years” ago can not be used in trends for the Grand National, Sea Pigeon. Fences have changed and it’s a totally different race to 30, 20 or even 10 years ago.
When the fences were stiffer/more dangerous, not many top class horses took part until they were on the downgrade. ie Horses carrying more than 11 stones were hopelessly outnumbered and those that did run invariably exposed/poorly handicapped.
These days there’s far more horses in the 11-0+ category and those taking part are less exposed or even still improving.
As for the age stat: Got to take in to account the number of runners in each age group. Take 9, 10 and 11 year olds out of races of yesteryear and you’re not left with many runners. ie With 40 runners and different (and still difficult) fences, experience is obviously a help. However, if a particular younger horse has the experience (8 year olds One For Arthur and Many Clouds both had a good deal of experience and won two of the last three runnings). If an older horse is less exposed (Unfortunately for me, 13 year old Vics Canvas would probably have won a couple of years ago had he not made one bad mistake and lost a significant amount of ground at first Bechers)… And with so few teenage horses running, it would only take one win from that age group to be statistically a good age group.
So horses bigger than “33/1” don’t win very often. ie Surprise, surprise, horses with less chance of winning don’t win very often.
When expectation is taken in to account, age, odds and weight trends – like most trends – mean very little.
Value Is EverythingWith the sad demise of Genie In Abottle I have been looking for another to add before the 5 day decs and settled on Lord Windermere at 66s EW NRNB with Paddy Power.
Of course he hasn’t won a race since his Gold Cup triumph and has no form this year; and his hold up style makes him a hostage to fortune in this race. But he handles soft, jumped quite well last year and stayed on pretty well then. He’s a few pounds lower this year and should be nice and fresh. He fell in the Becher on his only start this season but was a mite unlucky; he met the fence utterly wrong and had been jumping decently prior to that. Worth a go at the price.
) it is going to be very testing. Quite a few have mentioned they don’t want more rain and others that their horses want decent good spring ground.
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