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Never miss the opportunity to trumpet Ginge
Gold Present – 50s & 25s
Tiger Roll – 30s
Milansbar – 50sHappy with those, may have one more runner for me on Saturday morning with a million places on offer and the ground known.
Never miss the opportunity to trumpet Ginge
Said it to illustrate a point, Kev. If over-priced then a horse should be backed, but you’re right it does read that way so have deleted.
Value Is EverythingDoes anyone know if Vicente runs in this or waits to attempt the hat trick in the scottish national?
Will probably depend on how the ground is with Vicente. If, as I expect, there’s not any good in the description, he’ll probably be pulled late on and head to Ayr. Nicholls’ certainly seems keen on a 3rd go in that one.
Well I’m halfway there.
Reed wins the golf so my each way double goes onto Annibale Fly. 532/1.
I did mention the double on the Masters thread I believe so that nobody thinks I’m aftertiming. Anyone on the golf thread knows I was on reed.
Though he would be less of a win than last year with One For Arthur, he’s now worth a decent interest on the race to accompany my other bet on Gold Present.
COME ON THE FLY!
Ginge; 3 pence ew at 100/1 won’t break the bank!! [although I have, mistakenly, placed the bet twice]. I’ve absolutely no idea what might win this year, but can’t risk a cliff horse winning!
Not sure how much rain is forecast to fall on Friday, but assuming it could be significant, I’ve decided to add Baie Des Iles each way.
I wouldn’t have worried about deleting it Ginge, MOM has outdone you with his OFA trumpet above anyways
If you look through last years thread Kev, I was on One For Arthur for months before he won.
There you go. January 18th. 40/1.
Does anyone reckon Gigginstown might withdraw one or two of their higher weighted runners so the likes of Road To Riches or Thunder and Roses can get a run at the foot of the weights?
Think Valseur Lido in particular would like decent ground so he might get pulled if it’s a bog
Haven’t had time to do my usual thorough write up this year.
Originally against Total Recall primarily due to him pulling penultimate start; but settled far better in the Gold Cup being held up behind horses. One of surprisingly few of this year’s race looking capable of improvement. Ending up on the floor isn’t an ideal preparation. Usually a fairly good jumper in the past. Obviously a chance it’s effected confdence but if so it’ll likely show up at home… and in that case suspect Mullins to pull him out. For that reason haven’t yet bet. If still jumping well then the fact he didn’t finish may have actually helped – didn’t have such a hard race. Anibale Fly did finish and improved. However, of the two is generally the poorer (inconsistent) jumper. Jumped well enough to win the Irish Paddy Power off a 13 lbs lower mark, giving 3 lbs and a 7 lengths beating to Ucello Conti. Anibale Fly ran poorly penultimate effort, making mistakes and no chance when falling two out in the Irish Gold Cup. On Cheltenham form, 8 1/2 lengths third gives him a good chance but made several errors too. One big plus is stamina. Made ground late as if this extended trip should suit, but is he fully recovered and will he jump well enough?
Value Is EverythingMOM, a trumpet is not an aftertime but reminding people over and over you backed such and such a horse that won. It’s just tedious IMO
As grass said above wouldn’t surprise me if they pulled VL to get RTR in, don’t give VL a prayer but RTR would have an outsiders chance.
On the grand national thread, I think you’re extremely naive if you don’t think last years winner is going to be mentioned tbh.
Road To Riches has gone at the game. I expect him to be pulled up and then retired.
I wouldn’t have worried about deleting it Ginge, MOM has outdone you with his OFA trumpet above anyways
You’re right that using my own bets made it sound to many TRFers as if I’m “trumpeting” – and therefore it’s best to delete what’s taking away from my intended message, especially when you’ve brought attention to it. Making it sound as if the purpose of my my post was to trumpet.
If reading my post again, Kev; you’ll see it’s all about the folly of using age, weight and odds trends blindly. Using the fact I’d backed two big priced winners to illustrate my point that dismissing a horse on grounds of odds is illogical.
I also did a study a few years ago in to the percentage of winners of every age group – number of winners compared to the number of runners of each age (1984 onwards). All results pretty much what you’d expect, 9 year olds having most winners but only by the numbers you’d expect from the age responsible for the greatest number of runners. Same with every age. Even with thirteen year olds, although they have had no winners (0%), they’ve had so few runners that just one victory would then make them statistically a good age group – winning a bigger percentage of Grand Nationals than expected by their number of runners. This stuck in my mind and hence why (unlike some) I do not dismiss 13 year olds. Something that would have paid handsomely with Vics Canvas (at massive odds) had he not made just one serious error – losing more ground than distance beaten. Is backing a loser “trumpeting”, may be I should delete that too?
Study looked in to weights carried too. In some years only one or two runners carried more than 11-0. That’s just one or two of the 11-01+ group against the whole field. So of course those carrying under 11-0 or less won far more often! Change after change to Aintree fences have brought more and more good quality horses. So the far greater number of 11-01+ horses taking part nowadays means a far greater number win.
ie Trends going back thirty years are way out of date and mean nowt.
Value Is Everything
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