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Fair points in general, Mark, but I think there’s a reasonable chance blinkers have made some difference to the horse. His 2nd run in them at Newcastle was disappointing, but he was pulled up in his only previous run there; it could be that he doesn’t care for the track although there’s insufficient evidence.
I thought he ran with considerable enthusiasm on Saturday given the tough tests he’s faced. He didn’t get to the lead until the 10th there. At Warwick he lost the lead twice and regained it. You’ll no doubt know by now my feelings on the importance of rhythm in staying chases; it is worth pounds and pounds the farther they go imo and Bryony does it better than most. I’d love to have her claim, but it doesn’t trouble me too much.
As to the weights, it depends how you view them; if the handicapper reckons he’s improved from 134 (he went to 143 and was dropped 1lb then, I see) then he’s now in the best shape he’s been this season, arguably in his career as he has never bettered his 151 RPR at Warwick. On the case you make weights-wise, he’d seem to have no chance and yet sorting the current entries by RPR you’ll find him on 174, just 3lbs shy of the top rated.
My main concern would be the ground. Aintree have been moving toward a policy of good to soft in recent years, but he really wants soft ground. And of course there are many other risks, but with Bryony dominating coverage on the run up, he’ll be no bigger that 20s (though a fair bit bigger on Betfair).
Anyway, I’ve backed As De Mee at 66 and now Milansbar at 50 and I’m off now for a look at Captain Redbeard whom I think Nulty has made a sound case for above.
All the best.
Yes, Milansbar is as genuine as they come when with a clear view of the front, Joe. Will even fight back to lead if pressed – as long as there’s plenty of room. However, if surrounded or a wall of horses in front (there’s 40 runners here) he’ll give up and doesn’t jump as fluently.
Isn’t badly handicapped on “145”. Was two lengths second in the 2016 Midlands Grand National and has probably returned to that form of late – unlikely to improve further. Can understand the theory of Bryony getting on well with Milansbar (a positive) but even so – being unable to claim this time lessens his chance.
Does appear Milansbar is a soft/heavy ground specialist and Aintree probably won’t be enough of a test of stamina on normal Grand National going… which is imo the reason why he’s 50/1. Not sure NRNB will be effective; with Bryony riding there’ll be a clammer to run whether going is suitable or not.
If it comes up soft/heavy and if Bryony can get a view of the front and if not pressed to go too fast- then Milansbar’s chance would treble (if not more). imo One to be interested in only in running.
Value Is EverythingHe’s 50s, of course he’s got a range of things against him Ginge.
When it comes to this race I find that trying to narrow down onto the well handicapped horses like you would most handicaps is almost in-efficient most of the time.
Much rather have a horse that can jump well and is in decent form but is maybe higher up in the handicap than would be ideal, hence Blaklion last year and Many Clouds when he won.Of course, weight matters a lot more when the ground is bad like Rule The World’s year.
How times have changed.
Last year on the National thread I couldn’t hide my excitement and belief that One For Arthur would hack up and backed him accordingly. Was my biggest ever win.
This year, I really don’t fancy anything. I’ve has a small bet on Gold Present each way but now hear he broke a blood vessel last time at Cheltenham. That explains the bad run but is a worry here obviously. I imagine I’ll find something else on the day but it’s a stark contrast to the race last year.
Edit – Just remembered Bellshill. I imagine he will be my bet having looked at the race before Cheltenham. Forgot about him. I expect he will be my top up nearer the time to go with GP. Bellshills form is high class and with the race getting better every year, a classy horse can win this now. Ten years ago, i couldn’t have Bellshill for this race but with the standard considerably higher, horses like him have a fair weight and he may go well. Hopefully he runs.
Bellshill is trying for the Irish first.
You've got to accentuate the positive.
Eliminate the negative.
Latch on to the affirmative.
Don't mess with mister in between.Cant see Bellshill running in both. Also National winners tend to have more than a handful of chase runs as I said before, and Mullins has already raised concerns about his inexperience for such a challenge.
I’m getting slightly more hopeful that the two I mentioned some time back,
Cogry and Mysteree, both 100/1, might just have
a squeak at getting in. Cogry just couldn’t get into things last time out at the
festival, it may have been that the ground was just too bad for him. Aintree is
heavy at the moment and there is a fair bit of rain, including moderate/heavy on a
couple of days in the 14 day forecast. If it puts enough off, and if it does come
up very testing, then Mysteree would be in his element. Cogry I’m not so sure about,
he’s in and out at the best of times but he’d need to be on a good day. Both are
NRNB at 100s.I also backed Minella Rocco a couple of weeks back at 25/1 (in Pat’s
ante post thread). I had backed him e/w for the Gold Cup, but he was pulled out of that
because of the conditions and I’m concerned he might not make this either. He’s also
lumbered with top weight now which certainly wont help his cause. If the ground turns
out to be good enough for him I think he’ll run a big race.I’ll wait until the day now to see who goes and what offers are on before I chance
anything else.I had Cause of Causes as well so switched to The Dutchman. My 3 horse battalion going into the race now are Total Recall 25s, The Dutchman 33s, Ucello Conti 50s. Ew 5 places
Ucello Conti is very close to being added here too. I think that 33-1 with Bet365 nrnb is a very nice each way bet.
Lemons, He’s not been declared for Fairyhouse, so looking good for him.
These are the entries NOT declared for The Irish National
Acapella Bourgeois
Alpha Des Obeaux
Anibale Fly
Baie Des Iles
Rathvinden
Road To Riches
Tiger Roll
Total Recall
Ucello ContiWhat do you think of Road to Riches? Meade seemed enthusiastic about him being ready to roll again last summer but he hasn’t hit the heights since his return. Looked to be taking the scenic route for a quiet pop round the back last time. Hard to know what ability remains. Like many of em I would be more interested in him on good ground which I don’t think he is going to get.
Too many questions for me Grass, but best of luck if you side with him.
I really like your other one, Baie Des Iles, if starting just now, I’d definitely be chancing him, and 66’s is a mad price.
I thought the price might have contracted a bit when Katie Walsh said this has been the long term plan and she has not been declared for Fairyhouse. Only slight reservation is that she might have to lead or be up there to show her best. But after last year’s pace collapse, most of the jockeys might be wary of going off too fast especially if the going is soft, so she could get her own way up near the front. She is a grand big mare. Might go in again at that price…
While I’m happy with my merry bunch of outsiders; one I’m quite tempted to take a chance on is Rathvinden. Plenty to like about his Cheltenham win and while I tend to oppose novices in this, his age makes up for it slightly. The only real concern is how hard a race he had last time. Will this be 4 miles too many?
Houblon Des Obeaux is still my main bet with Double Ross, Bless The Wings and Lord Windermere as the back up. I’ve bet Saint Are, but I’m not sure he’ll get his ground.
I’ve also bet Tenor Nivernais, but that’s more out of blind loyalty than any true merit. Though if it does come up heavy I’d be more confident in him handling the ground better than others…
3 bets for the National NRNB 5 Places
BELLSHILL 20/1 EW
A GENIE IN ABOTTLE 80/1 EW
UCELLO CONTI 33/1 EW
I think There is a good chance a genie in Abottle will run here now. He wasn’t declared for the Irish National. I’m guessing after Valsuer Lidos terrible run they might head here with Genie instead.80/1 NRNB is massive 20/1 place! Stays all day and will get the trip. Run in punchestown behind disko and annnabel fly is very good form. Off 149 he is defo ahead of this mark and I think better ground will help him. Will be 33/1 shot on the day if lines up
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