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One of my bets in last year’s Gold Cup was Saphir Du Rheu. He’s a horse I’ve always liked and I believed some years back that he might well make up into a Gold Cup contender. That was a while ago and things didn’t go as well for him as I’d hoped, but he showed signs last season of finally realising that potential.
In the Gold Cup, he was beaten just over 6 lengths by the winner, Sizing John, and just under 4 lengths by the 3rd, Native River who is around 5/1 for next Friday’s race. This season, Saphir Du Rheu has had a much quieter campaign than usual after twisting a fetlock when he fell in the Grand National. Trainer Nicholls had hoped two get 2 races into him before the Gold Cup, but he managed just one – the Denman at Newbury four weeks ago where he badly needed the race, fading after three out behind Native River.
He’s 9-years-old and there’s a possibility he still has some improvement in him. It’s worth noting that eight of his nine career wins have been gained after breaks of six weeks or fewer; the Gold Cup will come 5 weeks after his last run. He certainly should not be 80/1 – that’s about four times the price he should be in my opinion.
An each way bet with William Hill – 80/1, money back if he doesn’t run – is strongly recommended
Twisted a fetlock in the blizzard of spruce he took with him no doubt :)
I can’t see it, Joe, he just isn’t a good enough jumper for me – and jumping out of the likely ground at GC pace may magnify his leaping deficiencies.
On top of that, last year’s GC has been overrated. It was rated round Native River’s HGC & WGN form and he didn’t run to that level at Chelt. Tizz admits the horse wasn’t right before and after the race. Minella Rocco was too proximate. Sizing John did little after – do people really trust the Punch form also involving Djakadam? If so, that would be the only time Coneygree has run to that level in how many years? And Djakadam was into his decline.
I’m a big Might Bite fan but Soft/Heavy (and for Road To Respect) is a worry so am leaning towards a targeted, peak condition Native River and Definitly Red. As for Edwulf – this will be even more gruelling than the Festival last year so the same oxygen problem may well reoccur.
GM, at 16/1 I wouldn’t be putting him up, but 80/1 EW (I took 120 on Betfair earlier) is way, way too big.
I’ve no concerns at all about his jumping over park fences (wouldn’t back him in a National). He’s safe and economical (that economy being his drawback at Aintree imo). Last year’s Gold Cup certainly wasn’t a classic, but what will really swing the scales in this one will be how much of a test it is.
I’m with you on concerns about Might Bite and RTR and Edwulf who must be in serious danger of a repeat of 2017. As for Native River, the ground will be in his favour, but I doubt he’s up to this and suspect last season was his annus mirabilis. He ran just 5 times as against 7 outings in both previous seasons, and went into the Gold Cup on the back of a hat-trick and after a five-week break. As you say, it wasn’t a great Gold Cup yet he couldn’t win it. His chance has gone now I think.
As for the others, Djakadam doesn’t get the trip on good ground and cannot win. Minella Rocco loves the place as much as Pete The Feat loves Sandown, but he’s another who wants good ground. Our Duke, I don’t quite get and think he’s over rated. Definitly Red won the Cotswold, invariably a gruelling test that regularly bottoms the winners. American had a tough race there too. I’m uncertain about Total Recall but suspect he won’t be good enough.
I fear Killultagh Vic who I think is a top class animal, but he has a fair bit of speed and the test might undo him. His jumping style needs work, but on the whole I think he’s safe and if Ruby rides and can switch him off until they turn in, he could be the one. But he’s miles away from Saphir Du Rheu value-wise.
Saphir Du Rheu likes Cheltenham. He’s won there on soft and has finished 2nd in a World Hurdle. Three of his top 5 Racing Post Ratings have been registered there. It’s worth considering how much closer he’d have finished last year had he not kept to the outside all the way, often 6 or 7 horses wide of the winner; no question that he covered considerably more ground than the distance beaten and I’m convinced he will outrun his odds on Friday, probably into a place, but he has a decent chance of winning, a chance that’s vastly underestimated by 80/1.
The ground on Friday may not be as bad as the other days. Tuesday Thursday and Friday forecast to be mainly dry. Around 7mm rain expected Wednesday.
Our Duke’s form took a big boost through Presenting Percy but I feel that as an Irish National winner he may find something faster. The same comments apply to some extent to Native River as a Welsh National winner.
That is somewhat of another concern for Our Duke, in that Native River may have a great shout if it is very testing.
This leaves Our Duke somewhat sandwiched between Might Bite as a King George winner and last year’s placed Gold Cup runner Native River.
I had to laugh at the Racing Post article headed “Nicky Henderson secret Gold Cup plan revealed”
It turns out that they revealed that there was a plan but that they would not reveal it because…..well…..err…..it’s a secret!
Might Bite will either try to make all or they will track Native River. I doubt there is any more than that to it. It would seem sensible to sit behind Native River for as long as possible and strike late enough that Might Bite won’t get lonely and start weaving like wee Jinky Johnstone did for Celtic when he was the Lord Of The Wings.
I am hoping Might Bite is the one who can out-speed the others in a race that looks to hold more stamina than speed. Last year’s antics has to be a big worry. I needed half a bottle of Jack Daniels to settle my shot nerves then and am hoping a bottle of Newcastle Brown will do the trick this year.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Definitly Red, ground trip course no problem and if trained in a different postcode would be shorter than the 16/1 i took last week so as they all say….i’m hopefull.
Native River 22/1 and Our Duke 11/2. Native River was my first ante post bet of this season and still happy with that price. This really should be his year. Right age and experience and also gets his ground. I suspect Richard Johnson saw Sam Spinner today and will make sure that it won’t become a sprint. Had to add Our Duke after Presenting Percy destroyed the field in the RSA Chase. Might Bite has too many questions to answer to be favourite in my opinion.
Native River 22/1
Our Duke 11/2Might Bite is the horse with the fewest question marks around him, so he’s my main bet.
As per Joe’s posts, SDR is WAY too big. And I’m an old romantic who would LOVE to see Nicholls back in the winners enclosure.
I also love Tea For Two, even if this ain’t his course.
BlueSky @pghenn.bsky.social
So don't run, just like the others always do
I’m in danger of boring you here, but Skybet go 80/1 Saphir Du Rheu to 5 places – crazy offer and must be taken EW
Been unsure on this race all along. Ended up playing:
– Might Bite to win @ 9/2
– Bachasson each way (5 places) 28/1
– Minella Rocco each way (5 places) 22/1I remember last year at Cheltenham in the January meeting seeing you Joe and discussing Saphir Du Rheu.
He is certainly better than a 80/1 chance for sure.
I haven’t yet given up hope for Minella Rocco, has run well on soft going, better going would have been erm better but Jonjo will have him ready and he doesn’t lack for stamina.Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
My 100% Book for soft ground:
9/2 Our Duke, 5/1 Native River, 11/2 Might Bite, 17/2 Killultagh Vic, 11/1 Definitly Red, 16/1 Road To Respect, 20/1 Total Recall, 25/1 Minella Rocco, 28/1 Djakadam, 28/1 Edwulf, 33/1 American, 33/1 Outlander, 66/1 Bachasson, 132/1 Amiable Fly, 300/1 Saphir De Rheu, 400/1 Double Shuffle, 400/1 Tea For Two, 500/1 Shantou Flyer.Not a great deal of value around, nothing more than 1.5% better than my prices at the moment.
Value Is EverythingAye, Nathan, always thought he’d make a high class animal old Saphir Du Rheu. Good luck with Minella – he loves the place and the race
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