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2018 Champion Hurdle

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Viewing 17 posts - 69 through 85 (of 281 total)
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  • #1330495
    ham
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3633

    DDS was poor FTO, although i dont think he will be good enough to contest this quite yet, i wish theyd mind him a bit more and im not entirely sure where that would mean he would be aimed at, but throwing him into races like they did last time isnt going to help matters, hes obviously talented, but that was a big ask before his first run, its an even bigger ask to go for this, dont think id even bother running him in this…. hopefully they place him well and dont give him too many hard races this season

    Still has potential, but not for this…. not quite yet anyway

    #1330502
    Avatar photojackh1092
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3940

    I think it’s a hard task for him over hurdles….i’m surprised they haven’t opted to send him over fences myself, back against novices…and the Arkle doesn’t look superb this year

    Twitter: Jackh1092
    Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!

    #1330512
    Avatar photoMiddle_Of_March
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2833

    Surely you didn’t think because he was the best out of the 4 year olds last year he would be a superstar. So rare that triumph winner is amazing.
    And I always wait to see how they run against the older horses before I’m convinced they are special. Judging on last run last years 4 year olds were not a vintage generation. And to think DDS was better than BD last years champion hurdle winner is absurd. Triumph hurdle vs champion hurdle winner?

    Hold up a second.. you’ve made some rather large assumptions there.

    I never thought Defi was better than BD right now. But I thought that the way Defi improved last season was superb and that, come cheltenham in march on a track he seems to relish, he’d be a big contender and was a far better bet at 8/1 than BD was at 7/2 (this was before faugheens run pushed the prices out).

    It was clearly a bad crop of four year olds but I still thought Defi was far superior and had something in hand at Cheltenham. I could see him being a superstar this season and next season but that run to me a couple of weeks ago seemed to suggest something was up. Like he hadn’t trained on or something.

    And the follow up runs of Faugheen and BD since, Defi won’t get near them.

    #1330517
    Avatar photoMarkTT
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    • Total Posts 3080

    I think DDS will prove that race was a rare poor performance but he lacks the scope of his elders. I’ll be very surprised if he wins a Champion Hurdle any time in the future

    #1330520
    Avatar photoSteeplechasing
    Participant
    • Total Posts 6337

    DDS not a horse I’ve followed but I think there’s value in that 20/1. Hobbs is the last man you’ll find talking his horses up but from what I’ve read he’s been buzzing about this horse. I’d be more than happy to allow him that poor run last time.

    To try and get some perspective albeit not statistically soundly based, I looked at the last 5 Triumphs and how the form had worked in a period of 240 days since the race. (365 days available for the older ones but obviously not for the 2017 running so 240 was the best compromise I could find).

    nn/nn/nn = Number of runners out of the race/winners/placed horse (note that the wins are also counted as being placed). Win percentage in brackets.

    2013 Our Conor: 36/6/18 (16.67%)

    2014: Tiger Roll: 55/9/17 . (16.3%)

    2015: Peace & Co: 26/4/11 (15.3%)

    2016: Ivanovitch Gorbatov: 39/11/18 . (28.2%)

    2017: Defi DS: 47/11/19 (23.4%)

    #1330548
    Jasolong
    Participant
    • Total Posts 604

    Surely you didn’t think because he was the best out of the 4 year olds last year he would be a superstar. So rare that triumph winner is amazing.
    And I always wait to see how they run against the older horses before I’m convinced they are special. Judging on last run last years 4 year olds were not a vintage generation. And to think DDS was better than BD last years champion hurdle winner is absurd. Triumph hurdle vs champion hurdle winner?

    Hold up a second.. you’ve made some rather large assumptions there.

    I never thought Defi was better than BD right now. But I thought that the way Defi improved last season was superb and that, come cheltenham in march on a track he seems to relish, he’d be a big contender and was a far better bet at 8/1 than BD was at 7/2 (this was before faugheens run pushed the prices out).

    It was clearly a bad crop of four year olds but I still thought Defi was far superior and had something in hand at Cheltenham. I could see him being a superstar this season and next season but that run to me a couple of weeks ago seemed to suggest something was up. Like he hadn’t trained on or something.

    And the follow up runs of Faugheen and BD since, Defi won’t get near them.

    Sorry pal I’m actually far too strong in my responses haha.
    I’m just have such a strong view of BD and I’m rarely wrong when I have this strong a feeling about a horse. Want everyone to back it lol

    #1332157
    Jasolong
    Participant
    • Total Posts 604

    **Offical Prediction**

    Buveur D’air wins pretty easily and Faugheen finishes 4th and retires.

    Mullins says he wasn’t himself etc. His fans say he was 80% fit and at his peak was the next coming of Jesus.
    BD will win 3 champion hurdles in a row and still no one will ever give him credit for being monster.

    Geraghty thinks he could be one of the best ever and I totally agree with him.

    People will say 3/1 was a crazy price against Faugheen who had about 6 question marks to overcome. Which must be a record number of question marks surrounding a 7/4 shot.

    Happy retirement Faugheen you were a decent champion in your prime but not one of the greats of you ask me :good:

    #1332172
    Cheltenham Novice Chase
    Participant
    • Total Posts 303

    I love it Jasolong. Don’t hold back now will you. You know what? I think you might well be right. Here’s hoping.

    #1332290
    ham
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3633

    Lol regardless of who wins, you underestimate faugheen drastically

    3/1 is never a crazy price 4 months out, its crazy to back

    #1332295
    Jasolong
    Participant
    • Total Posts 604

    Well 3/1 with maybe 1 question mark over him is better than 7/4 with about 6 question marks over the horse!
    BD will win but yes maybe I do underestimate Faugheen a bit. But he’s no Hurricane fly or istabraq if you ask me. And BD could be one of the greats over the next few years. If Faugheen beats BD fair and square I will certainly put him down as one of the best!
    But I believe he won’t perform and get retired

    #1332314
    Avatar photojackh1092
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    • Total Posts 3940

    Jaso, hes better than fly on ratings…just behind istabraq i believe? His run in the irish champion was his best performance…injured after…

    You certainly underestimate the best hurdler in a long time…but i see your view, injuries and 10yo, wouldnt follow you and fancy buveur d’air tho!

    Twitter: Jackh1092
    Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!

    #1332410
    ham
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3633

    The fact you think faugheen wouldnt/isnt one of the greats confuses me, his rating puts him there, he arguably never hit his full potential

    As MTOY shown today, dont underestimate the age factor,

    Ps ive already agreed faugheen is non bet @ 7/4 (read back) but if he wins NTO and they both get there he will be 1/2 on the day of the CH

    #1332939
    LostSoldier3
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 1874

    Here we go again. Faugheen drifting on the machine this morning…

    #1332943
    Avatar photocharlie87
    Participant
    • Total Posts 890

    Topping up Arctic Fire @ 70’s

    #1332957
    Avatar photojackh1092
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3940

    Charlie, I have something in my head about AF not being in the yard?

    Big price if he is A1

    Twitter: Jackh1092
    Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!

    #1332964
    ham
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3633

    Topping up Arctic Fire @ 70’s

    Have added him also

    #1332966
    ham
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3633

    Here we go again. Faugheen drifting on the machine this morning…

    2.9 to 3.35, only small change being laid off at this point, but its right around the time his work will be stepping up for next week.

Viewing 17 posts - 69 through 85 (of 281 total)
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