- This topic has 280 replies, 53 voices, and was last updated 7 years, 10 months ago by
.
- Posts
Buveur D’Air is the most likely winner, in my opinion, with improvement likely after just seven starts over hurdles. The only time he’s been beaten in those races was when ridden way off the pace against a beast like Altior.
Faugheen might get there this year and will attract plenty of support but he’ll be ten years old returning from two years on the sidelines. I can’t see it unless Buveur suffers an injury
That is pretty much my view at the moment as well. As big a Faugheen fan as I am it’s a momentous ask for the horse to come back, at his age as well, and win another Champion Hurdle. Defi is obviously a horse of talent but all his form is against his own age group and it’s yet to really be seen what he can do when chasing a world class animal.
The reigning Champion is surely the one to side with at the moment.
It looks very difficult to oppose the reigning champ here he was an impressive winner.
I wanted to bet Yorkhill as an alternative but I am not convinced that 12-1 is value right now though I know that this could change.
At this time I would be another to give a nod to Arctic Fire at 33-1. I liked the manner of his victory last year at Cheltenham and he is my early selection
I’ve had a speculative fiver on Charbel at 60. 2 mile chase division is red hot and if he wins the Elite I think he might stay hurdling. That Supreme for the ages, which, in the 365 days following, threw up 26 winners from 62 runs including eight Grade 1s, three Grade 2s and three Grade 1s (every horse bar one won a race) has already delivered one Champion Hurdler. Charbel was fifth, four lengths behind Buveur D’air.
Have been chipping away at faugheen 12/1 down to about 6/1, purely because if he bolts up next weekend hes likely to around 2/1 or less, i wont need him to make it to the festival at that point for a nice return 😂
If he just wins then ill be slightly concerned they might step him back up in distance,
Would never play such small odds antepost especially on a horse whos been off for so long
But ill make an exception for faugheen!!
I’m going to join you Ham and have my first sizeable Cheltenham bet on Faugheen at 6/1. Everything points to him cantering in today, and I know nothing is a given in this game, but the rewards outweigh the risks for me here. By roughly 2.20 this afternoon we’ll have a new 2/1 favorite for this race.
I hope Nicky didn’t let Buveur D’air watch that – he wont sleep for a week lol.
Fantastic comeback from Faugheen, great to see it. Fingers crossed he stays fit now
Looked like he hadn’t been away there but I’m still happy to take ‘The Machine’ on. Rising 10, obviously susceptible to injuries and I still don’t believe Cheltenham’s his track. Two from two perhaps but he’s never looked at his ‘robotic’ best there.
Easy to look too much into todays performance but at the end of the day it was a weak grade one with a small field that, on paper, he should have won as he liked. The layoff was obviously the issue but at in and around 2/1 for Cheltenham right now? Not for me I’m afraid.
Usually in a small field i would agree, but campeador is no slouch and should have won twice at big meetings last season and jezki is still a mid 150s horse, in hindsight people will say it was a weak renewal, but it wasnt as weak as youd say, they could have ran melon cilaos emery vvm in the race and made it a “strong field” but he knew faugheen would smash them so whats the point
I wouldnt back him at 2/1 and ive greened out already but hes definitely the one to beat off the back of that performance…
Easy to say “ the year knew he’d smash them “ in hindsight but plenty of hot favs have failed to take home the spoils.
Nicholls mops up prize money because he’s not afraid of running three of his horses in one race.
7k on offer for third and four ran.
Yes but there was no point in running any of the quartet he pulled iut for 7 grand, i dont think mullins is afraid to run them against each ither, he just kniws there capable of winning much more when kept apart…
MarkTT
Participant
Total Posts 1978
Easy to say “ the year knew he’d smash them “ in hindsight but plenty of hot favs have failed to take home the spoils.Nobody
’m going to join you Ham and have my first sizeable Cheltenham bet on Faugheen at 6/1. Everything points to him cantering in today, and I know nothing is a given in this game, but the rewards outweigh the risks for me here. By roughly 2.20 this afternoon we’ll have a new 2/1 favorite for this race.
That’ll do nicely indeed.
“I watched Faugheen with JP and we just looked at each other and went, ‘Errr’,” said Henderson
When you look at his two Cheltenham wins they have been on much quicker ground (officially good to soft for his Champion win and it was officially good when he won the Neptune) and he was either making the running or was up with the leaders the whole way – if you take Artic Fire out of his Champion win (who was purposely ridden for a best placing rather than to win) he is over 6L clear of those who were ridden to win the race.
Very interest but completely useless facts to note are that Faugheen, Buveur D’Air & Annie Power’s Champion Hurdle wins do share a couple of similarities:
1. All were officially run on good to soft ground
2. Each race also included The New One as a rivalThe Outcome:
Faugheen & Buveur D’Air both officially clocked 3m 50.90s whilst Annie Power (in rec of 7lbs) clocked 3m 45.10s
Faugheen & Annie Power both beat The New One by 8.75L whilst Buveur D’Air beat him by 10.5LIf Faugheen does indeed make it to the Festival, history is very much against him winning the race as a 10 yr old as you have to go back some 37 yrs to Sea Pigeon (my all time favourite NH horse) to find the last horse to achive that feat – they are some might big hooves for him to fill.
2. Each race also included The New One as a rival
Since the Pope was an altar boy, what Champion Hurdle has not?
Faugheen supporters might be best waiting until the day. With the stats so hard against him – aside from the age one, no Champion has ever regained that hurdling crown after a 2 year break – he won’t be a short price unless everything else between now and then falls in a hole.
Faugheen lay of the festival for me now at 2/1. One of the best lays in a few years actually. I can explain if anyone wants me to but you can probably guess all of the reasons why and there’s quite a few.
Just took MTOY E/W @ 66’s which is a bit of a silly price to be fair given his past record.
Getting on a bit now, but no surprise to see him run well again if he lines up again.
Faugheen lay of the festival for me now at 2/1. One of the best lays in a few years actually. I can explain if anyone wants me to but you can probably guess all of the reasons why and there’s quite a few.
Wouldnt back faugheen myself at 2/1 and i have greened out in the ch, but id like to hear the reasons
if your going to post statistics about other horses who where NOT rated 172+ and tried to do what faugheens doing then im not as keen to hear lolOf course 2/1 is a silly price, any horse at cheltenham atm should not be 2/1, if he makes it there and runs to 172, unfortunately for everyone else its goodnight!
The question about him winning in my view lies in will he actually make the festival and for that reason i dont believe he should be less than 5 or 6/1
Just out of curiosity if anyone has the info at hand, where any of the previous horses who attempted such a feat rated within 10lbs of faugheenAs a side note to all of this, faugheen arguably missed his “peak” years through injury and could very well have ran to the high 170s in that time, theres every possibillity that 170+ for this animal may be easy enough at this age
But i do agree that anyone taking 7/4-9/4 abouth faugheen is a bit mental, if it where february and everything had went well then fair enough, but not this far away.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.