- This topic has 280 replies, 53 voices, and was last updated 7 years, 10 months ago by
.
- Posts
It’s very hard to be critical of reigning champ, Buveur D’Air, and he was a very impressive winner, while Defi Du Seuil hasn’t done too much wrong either.
The only other one in single figure odds at this stage is Faugheen, and as much as we all know how good he was, there will obviously be question marks until he re-appears, and confirms that the old magic is still there. I’d be more concerned that he’ll be ten, but there are positive vibes about him from within the camp.
The one I really like from the yard is Arctic Fire, who looks a very generous 33’s. He too has had his setbacks, but there was plenty to like about the way he won The County, and if they can keep him sound, I think he could emerge as a real player. I also like Livelovelaugh from the yard, but he wouldn’t appear to be high in the stables pecking order, and there are numerous others coming through from the yard from their novice campaigns, and though many of them have chasing campaigns mapped out for them, who know with WPM, and any play on his Ante-Post is fraught with danger.
The market has been pretty stale on Betfair the last few months, and with the the top 2 in the betting looking particularly strong, even at this early stage, the market could remain that way for another month yet.
I did take a swing at one though, at the tail end of last season, and that was Samcro. I managed to get 66’s and 100’s. Yes, he’ll be going Novice Hurdling, but if he can really impress, and fulfill the hype in the process, I thought with the big two potentially scaring a lot of the opposition away, and with Gigginstown having nothing else definitely heading here, then I thought it was worth a chance. I’ve probably done my dough, but happy to chance him, as he really has looked like the real deal.
Early days but I’ve got Buveur as the mainstay of a few ante-post multis. I think he is an underrated Champion, probably one of the best in the last few years. Not enough was made of the way he flattened 3-out when they were starting to sprint down the hill. Amazing how he still surged right through.
I’m trying to make a case for this year’s novices – Melon, Cilaos Emery and Pingshou but the general feeling all the way through last season was that they were quite a poor crop. Melon (a real chaser on looks) being drafted into the hurdles team by Mullins also suggests a lack of confidence in old Faugheen.
I thought last year’s juveniles were quite good, although the early efforts of Ex Patriot haven’t really held up the form. Probably unfair to base any conclusions on one horse (sadly we lost Mega Fortune yesterday). I’ve got nothing against Defi but he does certainly need to improve to be beating Buveur.
Until something comes out of the handicap ranks (there’s always one!) I think Buveur D’Air is one of the most solid long-range favs right now.
Mullins “probably angling towards a hurdling campaign” with Melon. Not confirmed but when is anything 100% certain with that man?
Completely agree re Arctic Fire VTC. I backed at 80’s in July (more info on page 7 of the ‘Cheltenham 2018 bets’ thread). The CH market it littered with those that won’t go and unknowns at this level. I keep asking myself ‘would Arctic Fire need to run to a better level than his 2nd behind Faugheen in 2015 to beat market principals like Buveur D’Air’. I don’t think he would. He clearly retains a lot of ability. If you go back and watch the post race comments from WPM after Faugheen’s win in 2015 he thought that Arctic Fire had the most room for improvement, and he was fairly emphatic about that. In terms of what has happened between that performance and now, he really hasn’t done much wrong. Cruising at Aintree before falling at the last, won 2 grade 1’s, was 2nd to Faugheen twice and then had a lengthy absence due to injury. Winning the County off top weight after that absence was impressive, and having run very well in the CH before I think 42’s on the exchanges is a decent AP price for a horse that is surely CH bound, providing he stays well. Yes, he will be 9, but lets hope he follows in the footsteps of Rooster Booster who won the County at 8 and then CH at 9.
I really hope I’m wrong, because he was on his way to being one of the the greats, but it’s hard to see Faugheen coming back to his best. Even 90% of his best might be enough tho…..
Really looking forward to Campeador this afternoon at Punchestown.
He’s not been seen since last December, when he fell at the last with the race at his mercy at Fairyhouse, and that was his first spin since falling at the last in The Fred Winter. He’s been luckless then, but after missing Cheltenham, where he was Favourite for The County Hurdle, he could emerge as a real dark horse for The Champion Hurdle this afternoon, if he’s over his knocks.
In a rather stale market, he’s one of the few who appeal at their current price, and based on what we’ve seen of him, I think 33’s is fair.
Hopefully he’ll be good to go today.
Job done for Campeador today.
The boys have added him to the Champion Hurdle market at 25/1. I’d want a little bigger myself but I’m sure he’ll attract some interest.
Campeador
I couldn’t have him at all for this race personally, as buveur dair/ faugheen will certaimly win but interesting gordon mentioned chasing
“We’ll see where the lads want to go but he’s going to have to improve a lot to be thinking about going that (Champion Hurdle) way. Once he’s ok in the morning that’s the most important thing and Barry said he could jump a fence.”
Assuming he diddnt mean this season?
Well, he won as he was entitled to, but I wasn’t blown away by him today at all. He’s sure to come on for that though, but as Solider says, I would want bigger than 25’s right now.
It doesn’t look the strongest in depth therefore I think Hobbs should target the race
Faugheen has been off for a while so has a question mark against his name
Would there be any chance Fayonagh takes in the race.?Charles Darwin to conquer the World
According to Hobbs stable tour he stays hurdling with the champion hurdle in mind….
He’s my idea of the winner even at this stage
Buveur D’Air is the most likely winner, in my opinion, with improvement likely after just seven starts over hurdles. The only time he’s been beaten in those races was when ridden way off the pace against a beast like Altior.
Faugheen might get there this year and will attract plenty of support but he’ll be ten years old returning from two years on the sidelines. I can’t see it unless Buveur suffers an injury
Melon wins on comeback and is nipped in for the Champion Hurdle across the board.
Hard to assess a horse first time out really but I wasn’t overly impressed, seemed to lack a little speed before eventually outclassing the runner-up. I guess next time will be the race to judge him.
He’s bred to to be alright without being a Champion Hurdle winner. Similar in that regard to Sempre Medici ( same sire, same connections ). He might improve to win a sub standard Champion Hurdle ( like Punjabi’s renewal ) but Buveur D’Air could be rated in the 170s this season and there’s very, very little chance of Melon improving that much.
Defi Du Seuil was the best juvenile i’ve seen for some time and much depends on that busy season leaving any mark on him. I’m cautious about how much more improvement remains because plenty by Voix Du Nord have resembled world beaters aged 4 or 5, only for their progress to plateau quickly once in the senior ranks
Marks in the 160s appear to be unobtainable for almost all of them
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.