Christmas Chase 2017

I was of the same opinion before this race, Steve. That Yorkhill had little chance of staying and form had been exaggerated – good lay bet. Although as there were others I did not want to back and some I thought over-priced; personally I chose to lay Yorkhill by backing others. But just because Yorkhill was tried at 2m doesn’t mean he’s not got the speed for 2m. Willie Mullins has a great Cheltenham Festival record bar never winning the Gold Cup and a few horses are effective from 2m to 3m2f – so wanted to try… Especially as Mullins’ best chance this year (unless Yorkhill stayed) appeared to be Djakadam – who’s already been beaten in three Gold Cups. Mullins is desperate to win the Gold Cup!

…And Mullins does not necessarily go for the race he thinks the horse has the best chance in. Instead shuffling his pack so that he himself can win more races. What matters to him is the horse that he believes has the best chance of winning him the race runs in that race. ie Other stable-mates may go for other races even though they’d be suited by that trip.

Although I believe Yorkhill’s form has been exaggerated in some quarters, in some ways it’s unfair to compare his form with an established hurdler/chaser that’s in their third season hurdling/chasing. Has only 5 chases to his name and only 5 races over hurdles too. Buvier D’Air himself won the Champion Hurdle on his 6th hurdles start. I’d describe Yorkhill as a Jack Of All Trades – could yet improve in both codes – possible Master Of One.

As for distance: For me he’s probability is in most races he’s best at 2m4f. However, given a strongly run 2m on a stiff course (and Yorkhill is capable of making (the running) it a strongly run race) in those conditions I expect him to be equally effective at 2m.

So where will Yorkhill end up?
Mullins has Min, Un De Sceaux and Yorkhill all in the mix for both Champion Chase and Ryanair. Total Recall, Djakadam and Yorkhill for the Gold Cup. Penhill, Yorkhill and Killultagh Vic for the stayers hurdle (latter also in Ryanair) and Faugheen, Melon, Yorkhill and Min in the Champion Hurdle. To me, I can’t now see Yorkhill going for either of the staying races – won’t stay. But the one race Mullins has plenty of good options is the Ryanair. Things could yet change, but at the moment I’d pencil in:

Min – Champion Chase
Un De Sceaux – Ryanair
Melon & (if fit) Faugheen – Champion Hurdle
Penhill – Stayers Hurdle
Djakadam & Total Recall – Gold Cup

However, if Faugheen does not make the Festival and Min does, then Mullins will have Melon Vs Buvier D’Air. Suspect he’ll then want Yorkhill to go the Champion Hurdle route. But if Min isn’t going that well at home I could see Yorkhill going for the Champion Chase OR if I were Mullins would seriously consider switching Un De Sceaux to the Champion Chase and Yorkhill goes Ryanair?

If Faugheen is missing in the Champion Hurdle I’d make Yorkhill the biggest danger to my ante-post Buvier D’Air… And if going Champion Chase I’d rate his chance very similar to Min and Un De Sceaux – third fav behind my Altior and Politologue. If going the Ryanair route in the absence of Un De Sceaux he’d be disputing favouritism with the likes of his old rival Top Notch (I’d just about favour the Henderson horse)… But Yorkhill’s target is likely to depend on what stable-mates are fit and well on the day.

Think it’s obvious that Total Recall is more of a Grand National horse than a Gold Cup one. Shouldn’t be good enough for the latter. But does that mean he won’t go to Cheltenham? If Djakadam doesn’t recover his form Total Recall might still be Mullins best chance of winning the Gold Cup this season.

If Faugheen makes it to Cheltenham then you’re right, Yorkhill will remain chasing. If not then it’s imo 50-50. What Min and Melon do in the coming weeks may also be important to where Yorkhill ends up.

With NRNB markets Yorkhill is around the same 4/1-/9/2 mark for the Champion Hurdle, Champion Chase and Ryanair. Shows Yorkhill’s versatility and why his target is probably relient on stable-mates targets/injuries.

If they are struggling to find a race or the right race for Yorkhill then surely he has no trip and that just makes him unbackable for any race currently!!

No point going for the Champion Hurdle he can’t beat BD.
No point going for the Champion Chase if Altior turns up!!
No point going for the Rayanair unless UDS is doubtful
And certainly no point turning up for the three mile races as it doesn’t appear to stay.

What they need is a fit Ruby to try and finesse a decent run out of the horse IMO

I dont think there strugglig to find his trip, his trip is 2m-2m4, they just hoped his predigree would make him stay, but ideally his best trip over a fence would be 2m, can he beat altior? That remains to be seen, but hes definitely good enough to get 2nd anyway!

Mullins already has the favourite for the Ryanair, so he won’t have two of his best horses in that race when he only has Min for the Champion Chase… And waiting to see if Faugheen makes it to Cheltenham. Therefore, Ryanair would obviously be the least likely at this stage which is the probable reason for that statement by Emmet Mullins. However, if something happens to Un De Sceaux all that could change.

Gingertipster wrote:

With NRNB markets Yorkhill is around the same 4/1-/9/2 mark for the Champion Hurdle, Champion Chase and Ryanair. Shows Yorkhill’s versatility and why his target is probably relient on stable-mates targets/injuries.

The trouble with versatility is that it often manifests itself from not being quite good enough in any one particular area. If Yorkhill were a footballer he would probably be David Fairclough.

He has chances in places at the Festival, particularly given the problems some have had and the fact that his trainer’s name is William Uncertainty Mullins.

I think the Champion Hurdle is the wrong race for him though. We will all know in due course of course but I am visualising the post race interviews from the Champion Hurdle to be strongly focusing on whether Buveur D’air can pull the hat-trick off in 2019.