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With the way Townend’s meeting has gone to date (don’t get me start on how bad he was on Min from the last fence), I half expect Yorkhill to run away with him like he did at Aintree (especially given it is his 1st run of the year and they will be going much slower than he has been used to in his previous races).
I wonder what work (if any) Mullins has done to try and get him to settle at home as you could very well know your fate with him as early as the first couple of fences – is he the most naturally talented horse in the field…yes and probably by a long way.
Until Punchestown he was able to get away with pressing the self destruct button but going up in trip means the margin of error is much smaller and so he can ill afford to be wasting energy early in the race.
Without Yorkhill in the race Sizing John would be odds-on, but around 4/5 to 4/6, not 1/2 to 2/5. Yorkhill currently around 7/2, take the mark up off and the market believes he’s a fair 4/1 20% chance. So it’ll be 20% put back in to the market if Yorkhill does not to run… And judging by Sizing John’s current price he should take half or a touch more than half of that 20%. So current price 11/10 = 46.7, + 10 = 56.7 = between 4/5 and 8/11… little extra 4/6.
Value Is EverythingIf hes 10/11 with yorkhill 7/2 in the field and its 9/1 bar, take yorkhill out your saying he would be 4/5? From 10/11 lol Factor in the 3rd fav is the horse he hammered last time, your way off with your calculations.
Yorkhill bombed, sizing john never looked comfortable, atall. Congrats R2R backers! Won that well!
GC must be off the table for Yorkhill now after that – even taking into account the 1st run of the season, he settled beautifully but once he clouted one down the back you could see Townend was holding on to nothing. The obvious race for him is the Ryanair but I would be inclined to go for the QMCC with him.
Even more shocking to me was the run of Djakadam who is the most reliable yardstick – he travelled much better than he did 1st time out until he made a mistake five or six out and then he checked out completely and was actually pulled up before the last.
Id be slightly concerned about mullins stable form atm djakadam a good example like you said
I think the John Durkan could have taken plenty out of Sizing John and Djakadam. I wouldn’t be quick to rule the former out at Cheltenham.
It has to be specific, MOM because it’s difficult to fit every horse in to that 100%. ie I would’ve loved to make Road To Respect an 11% chance, but the book would’ve added up to 100.5%, not 100. Same with every other horse in the race, got to squeeze those percentages to get all horses in to that 100. ie If every one of those 12 runners had another 0.5% added to their price the book would be 106% which is too big. Betting with a 106% book does not produce overall profit… And 0.5% either way can make a difference. If making a horse 11% he’d be a fair 8/1 shot, if 10.5% he’s a fair 17/2 and 10% would be 9/1.
Value Is EverythingDisappointing from Yorkhill but 1st time out and going would not have helped. I’d give him another shot personally but can understand if the yard change route now.
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Ham – The Ricci horses in particular over the last 14 days are only 2 wins from 15 runners and starting to get a bit nervous re Faugheen now, nothing in the race that should get him off the bridle but then I thought the same with Min
I expected the race from yorkhill but not from djakadam, slightly concerning regarding faugheen for tomorrow also
Barcadys is odds on for Mullins in the next and with Sutton Place a non runner should be bang there
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Sizing John “clinically abnormal” according to the racecourse vet.
Although a few of the stable have run well recently, Jessie has also had 39 runners without a win since Sizing John in the John Durkan.
Value Is Everything
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