- This topic has 133 replies, 36 voices, and was last updated 8 years, 4 months ago by
.
- Posts
That’s pretty well it. I like an angle that no one has considered or needed reminding of. Then I’ll say thanks
Other than that listening to who’s won what is like listening to a blow by blow account of when they humped their fat smelly wife.
You just don’t really want to know
Jessica Harrington reported Sizing John to be sound and at this stage has no answer other than the horse overheating for some reason.
That has to be a worry going forward unless something emerges as a reason for causing him to run in such a manner.
The Irish Handicapper raised Road To Respect 4 lbs to 167 for winning. So that leaves him within 3 lbs of a peak Sizing John in theory. Outlander was dropped a 1 lb to 163.
Balko Des Flos went up 7 lbs, and at the odds he went off that will probably raise some question marks. Yorkhill remains on 164, despite running to a RPR of 114, a figure that leaves me frozen cold even if he goes back hurdling at 2 miles.
This side of the Irish Sea, the official handicapper has raised Might Bite 3 lbs for his win. I feel that’s a bit light myself. Even if he is only 165, he’s in the mix and has looked the most progressive to me, plus he has less questions regarding his wellness.
4/1 may look ridiculous to some eyes but another win and something emerging that is a negative for Sizing John could lead to Might Bite being 2/1 and people wishing that they had gotten a TARDIS for Christmas in order to go back in time in search of better odds.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Yorkhill remains on 164, despite running to a RPR of 114, a figure that leaves me frozen cold even if he goes back hurdling at 2 miles.
Steve, please remember these are the same crowd who gave Bristol De Mai a rating of 185 for his Betfair Chase win. That figure means absolutely nought for his ability over hurdles at 2 miles.
The winner looks a serial improver to me, but I’d still be confident he’s not even Meade’s best Gold Cup chance. Very happy with Coney Island at 33s, the Neville’s Hotel form from last year looks the strongest on offer to me, just need to see Disko and Our Duke out again to really push the button.
It is an interesting topic, whether or not you congratulate winners.
I am not on here on a regular basis not as much as I would like to be but when I am this is the first part of the forum I head for. I used to congratulate winners a lot more than I do now for various reasons. I am an easy going person but if I was nitpicking a little, I would have to admit to getting a little annoyed at the increasing number of self congratulatory posts + I am sure it wasn’t like that on here in the past. It might not bother other posters + I may be getting set in my ways but I always thought self praise is no praise at all.
Anyway, it is not that big a deal in the grand scheme of things is it? That is as close as I come to a rant
Happy New Year to you all
As with all races, I won’t be making my selection for the 2018 Cheltenham Gold Cup until the evening before at the earliest. At this stage it appears to be an incredibly open renewal and may attract a large field. My best advice would be to either pick your favourite horse(!) or try to interpret the form yourself without recourse to the figures produced by the official handicappers and pre-eminent ratings services. They are merely educated best guesses and too often performances are rated based not on their merit but on a pre-conceived notion of “Horse won Specific Famous Race so must have run to xxx”.
Just one example, related to the Lexus: Road To Respect beat Minella Rocco 9L having previously beaten him 10 1/2L and given him 10lb at Punchestown in October; Sizing John beat Minella Rocco 2 3/4L in the 2017 Gold Cup. Minella Rocco was outpaced, kept on in all three races, Cheltenham was over 2 1/2f further but on less testing ground than the Lexus (pace similar in both races). Maybe JonJo is training the horse to peak in March, however, why is Road To Respect not rated more highly than Sizing John? Because the 2017 Cheltenham Gold Cup was hugely overrated (probably by 10) based on the status and tradition of the race (Minella Rocco only confirmed the form with Native River from the 2016 NH Chase, the latter has done nil since; Djakadam was more severely on the downgrade than measured at the time; Saphir Du Rheu was last seen taking Booth home with him from Aintree (the spruce is too loose!); More Of That has been a pale imitation of himself for a couple of seasons at least; Bristol De Mai is effective only on flat left-handed Northern tracks on very testing going). Since upped in trip Sizing John has beaten only Djakadam (see above) and Coneygree who is yet to prove he is what he was. Balko Des Flos is only 6 and improving, Outlander ran at least as well as in the 2016 Lexus. Undoubtedly in my mind, Road To Respect performed with more merit in the Lexus than Sizing John ever has.
Might Bite is a favourite of mine. His 2016 Kauto Star and 2017 RSA performances were almost certainly better than that of the winners in the equivalent King George and Gold Cup races. He was (ignoring the detour) getting on for a stone superior to Whisper in the RSA and the latter’s Hennessy effort was at least as good as Native River’s from a year earlier. Even if Native River has been overrated on that and other efforts (see above) it puts Might Bite in the mix with Road To Respect, and Thistlecrack (beat Alpha Des Obeaux as easily in the Stayers Hurdle as Road To Respect did in the Lexus) if he comes on again back from injury. They are all about half a stone shy of Don Cossack/Cue Card from a couple of years ago but Might Bite (if his natural exuberance is not completely stifled by trainer and jockey) may have the most potential to attain those heights, ahead of Road To Respect. I wouldn’t trust Thistlecrack’s jumping at Prestbury Park.
Nicky and Nico trying to keep the lid on Might Bite by kidding him it’s not the last is a bit of a risky strategy but, as was in my opinion the case in 2017, a lot of Gold Cups take less winning than generally thought so the idea could well work. However, if his performance level is going to be less than what could be possible and there is indeed a big field it opens the race up to many – funny things happen up the hill per Lord Windermere.
Yorkhill remains on 164, despite running to a RPR of 114, a figure that leaves me frozen cold even if he goes back hurdling at 2 miles.
Steve, please remember these are the same crowd who gave Bristol De Mai a rating of 185 for his Betfair Chase win. That figure means absolutely nought for his ability over hurdles at 2 miles.
The winner looks a serial improver to me, but I’d still be confident he’s not even Meade’s best Gold Cup chance. Very happy with Coney Island at 33s, the Neville’s Hotel form from last year looks the strongest on offer to me, just need to see Disko and Our Duke out again to really push the button.
It’s just a ball park figure of course but it’s of a level that equates to the horse having stunk the place out. It hardly inspires confidence that the horse is well within himself.
I have never rated Yorkhill that highly and I think Buveur D’air will brush him aside if he does show up in the Champion Hurdle. That’s just my opinion of course but Buveur D’air is on an unbeaten run, is now firmly established as a specialist hurdler and he’s the reigning and cosy Champion. What’s not to like?
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Good luck with those thoughts GM. Think you’ve got a lot of form lines seriously wrong. Horses don’t run to their very best rating very often, some only once a year. Sometimes they run a long way below form. Might come back if/when I have time.
Value Is EverythingI doubt it. More likely the official handicappers and ratings services are seriously wrong. They are imprisoned by their own misconceptions of what should be and lack vision of the broader picture. I wouldn’t expect you to agree because your work is based on a ratings service. I am not talking about the notion of a master rating, rather a best performance rating based on the merit of a performance. It’s all subjective, educated best guesses. Such for ‘official’ form that the runners-up in the two big xmas chases were 50/1 and 66/1.
Don’t forget I have been through every aspect of performances in Grand Nationals from 1836, Gold Cups from the 1920s. I’ve seen patterns, I’ve seen bad habits develop. The most ludicrous ratings error of all time is the rating of two horses in the same stable at the same time about 20 superior to any other quadruped to have drawn breath (and they ran in a weak era too!)
Something else to chew on: the best performance in a GN since 1988 was by Don’t Push It (2010).
If you look at Yorkhill, his Hurdle Rating is 156 and that’s not high enough in my opinion. Buveur D’air is rated 169.
Buveur D’air beat Yanworth by 12 lengths further than Yorkhill did when landing the Neptune at rare odds against in his career thus far.
Yorkhill’s form at 2 miles isn’t that strong either. He beat OO Seven at 2 miles but it was on heavy ground and he disappointed when odds on at Punchestown on a better surface. There is actually very little evidence so far that the horse has the pace to win a Champion Hurdle and frankly the form isn’t there either up until this point. He won a bumper at 2 miles and a novice chase over the same trip at odds of 1/8. It’s way short of Buveur D’air’s body of form.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
GC must be off the table for Yorkhill now after that – even taking into account the 1st run of the season, he settled beautifully but once he clouted one down the back you could see Townend was holding on to nothing. The obvious race for him is the Ryanair but I would be inclined to go for the QMCC with him.
I would not agree at all that he settled beautifully. When Townend jumped off in rear it was obvious the plan was to hold him up but the horse had carted him to the front by the end of the back straight.
If you look at Yorkhill, his Hurdle Rating is 156 and that’s not high enough in my opinion. Buveur D’air is rated 169.
Buveur D’air beat Yanworth by 12 lengths further than Yorkhill did when landing the Neptune at rare odds against in his career thus far.
Yorkhill’s form at 2 miles isn’t that strong either. He beat OO Seven at 2 miles but it was on heavy ground and he disappointed when odds on at Punchestown on a better surface. There is actually very little evidence so far that the horse has the pace to win a Champion Hurdle and frankly the form isn’t there either up until this point. He won a bumper at 2 miles and a novice chase over the same trip at odds of 1/8. It’s way short of Buveur D’air’s body of form.
In defense of Yorkhill, he hasn’t had the opportunities at two miles that Buveur D’Air has had. Buveur D’Air may have beaten Yanworth by 12 lengths further but it was over fiver furlongs less, with Yanworth looking slower or lazier as each race came and went. The only time Yorkhill has been beaten over 2m is when as you say he disappointed at Punchestown. Hardly the first horse to do so at the end of the season.
Everything about the horse screams that he wants to go faster. He traveled like the wrath of god into that Neptune and while some argued at the time that Yanworth was unlucky, he was never beating Yorkhill. I hope they don’t persevere with the three mile dream as it doesn’t play to the horses strengths. In fairness he jumped well on Thursday so I don’t think a return to hurdles is necessary but with what happened to Faugheen, maybe they’ll go down the Champion Hurdle route.
To take 10/1 about Yorkhill for the Champion Hurdle would be a massive leap of faith for me with so many unknowns, he’s probably 5/1 to even run in the race, but if that did become the target, he’d most certainly be the most dangerous threat to Buveur D’Air. His hurdles form is not on the same level as the Champion Hurdle hotpot, but he’s the only horse there with the potential to take his form to that level and beyond.
LD73 wrote:
GC must be off the table for Yorkhill now after that – even taking into account the 1st run of the season, he settled beautifully but once he clouted one down the back you could see Townend was holding on to nothing. The obvious race for him is the Ryanair but I would be inclined to go for the QMCC with him.I would not agree at all that he settled beautifully. When Townend jumped off in rear it was obvious the plan was to hold him up but the horse had carted him to the front by the end of the back straight.
Agreed, not sure how it could be said that he settled beautifully. For his first time over 3 miles the plan was certainly to hold him up, like they did in the JLT. I’m sure Townend wanted to deliver him as late as possible, not only to ensure he stays the trip, but also to counteract his idling. Yorkhill pulled himself to the front far too early, and unless Ruby can produce another masterclass on him like he did in the JLT, I’m not sure Yorkhill would even stay the Ryanair trip doing as he did.
I’d be all over Buveur D’air in the Champion Hurdle regardless of Yorkhill’s participation or not, but he’d give me something serious to think about if he lined up in the Queen Mother.
If you look at Yorkhill, his Hurdle Rating is 156 and that’s not high enough in my opinion. Buveur D’air is rated 169.
Yes; Yorkhill’s rating at the end of his novice hurdling year was 156. Buveur d’Air’s at the same stage was 151, increasing to 157 by virtue of beating Rayvin Black by 1.5l when he reverted to hurdles in his last race before the Champion Hurdle. Of course 156 is not enough to win the CH but do you really think Yorkhill would be likely to show no improvement from his novice year?
Buveur D’air beat Yanworth by 12 lengths further than Yorkhill did when landing the Neptune at rare odds against in his career thus far.
Yes- in the race where six horses finished in front of Yanworth; he wouldn’t have been pushed out to try to finish 6th (whereas he was pushed out to try to win the Neptune) ; and he was DSQ for a prohibited substance. That horse is fundamentally unsound and not a good yardstick. It’s unlike you to use such a literal reading of form to support your argument. But if you want to bring Yanworth into it let’s use the Christmas Hurdle where Yanworth beat TNO into 2nd by 3 1/4 l. Buveur d’Air beat TNO into 2nd this year in the same race by 2 1/4 l. Is Yanworth a length better horse over 2m than BD? Unlikely.
Yorkhill’s form at 2 miles isn’t that strong either. He beat OO Seven at 2 miles but it was on heavy ground and he disappointed when odds on at Punchestown on a better surface. There is actually very little evidence so far that the horse has the pace to win a Champion Hurdle and frankly the form isn’t there either up until this point. He won a bumper at 2 miles and a novice chase over the same trip at odds of 1/8. It’s way short of Buveur D’air’s body of form.
Very good points (apart from Punchestown remark- the horse is much worse right handed and as such will never be a complete racehorse with a flaw like this, but it doesn’t affect his engine). I really agree with your core argument- that Buveur d’Air has built up a body of form over 2m hurdles to prove he’s very very good. And that Yorkhill hasn’t. Whether that’s “not yet” or “not ever” remains to be seen.
Yorkhill did not settle beautifully in the slightest in the lexus, he took Paul Townend to the front over his first go at 3miles on season debut. He needs cover, watch all his best performances with Ruby on board.
Also, whilst BDA has produced lovely form, if i asked you this time last year, would BDA have the form to win a CH you’d laugh at me the exact same way you are questioning Yorkhill.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Yorkhill did not settle beautifully in the slightest in the lexus, he took Paul Townend to the front over his first go at 3miles on season debut. He needs cover, watch all his best performances with Ruby on board.
Also, whilst BDA has produced lovely form, if i asked you this time last year, would BDA have the form to win a CH you’d laugh at me the exact same way you are questioning Yorkhill.
No point postulating about what we thought last year. It has no relevance now because the horse has gone and blown them away. Are we not foolish if we don’t take into account the fresh information the horse has provided in slaughtering his field in the top event, a race that is his ultimate goal again?
Buveur D’air is younger and his form is superior. He’s on a winning run and improving.
Has Willie Mullins placed Yorkhill that badly in his career that he needs to switch from 3 mile chases to 2 mile hurdles in the space of one race? That doesn’t seem like the stuff of a training genius to me.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I’d say Yorkhill would have a better chance of beating Altior than Buv D’Air. His fencing is better than his hurdling, he shouldn’t be keen at all at QM pace, and, whatever his winter form, he’s a different horse in spring, especially at the festival. At the likely odds, I’d happily back him V Altior.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.