Christmas Chase 2017

No killultagh vic and hes not in the hurdle either, bitterly disappointing i hope hes ok,

Yorkhill over 3m FTO against SJ???, if luke harvey flew in and rode rudolph round and won id be less surprised, he will tug the arms off paul townend

6/4 sizing john is an absolute certainty barring a fall.

Incredible race, really is a cracker.

Shame Disko isn’t running, maybe a tip in itself for RTR who I think is overpriced at 12s. Will like the return to a LH track and is an improving type.

But if I like him I have to like Yorkhill.

Yorkhill I adore & i’m hopeful of a morning push to 7/2-4s. He might not be as fresh as first feared, had a spin round Navan the other week and reportedly settled nicely.

Ability wise you question Yorkhill but you like RTR? Yorkhill gave him lengths at every fence at Fairyhouse and still only got beat a neck.

I agree with the above post, I really can’t understand where this view that yorkhill is a monster developed from? Evidence on the racecourse suggests that he is a talented headcase, not some superstar. Can’t see him staying 3 miles or jumping well enough to be winning this.

I never joined the Yorkhill fan club. For long enough he looked to be winning weak affairs and not really getting the ratings you would associate with a really top horse.

His JLT win answered a few questions on the form front though and that race has worked out with Top Notch, Disko and Politologue the horses who were 2nd, 3rd and 4th at Cheltenham.

I feel he’s a bit skinny in against seasoned horses though, with the question of how ripe he will be and the extra distance.

Djakadam may never win the Cheltenham Gold Cup now but I felt he should probably have won it in Coneygree’s year. Ruby’s face seemed to suggest he left him a bit too much to do that day.

Trouble for Djakadam is the 5/17 strike rate in chases and the six times second in that same sphere.

In the end I decided on a straight forecast Sizing John and Djakadam for an interest here. I do hope Sizing John strengthens his Cheltenham position, so that we can focus on horses capable of winning the race, rather than seeing endless excuses for a horse that is supposed to be 11 lbs better than Sizing John on best RPRs.

Hope it’s a good race and I’ll just stick with the forecast for interest. There is plenty to make Yorkhill the lay at his odds. I like to have two strong reasons why a horse may not win a race in order to lay them and that is well met with Yorkhill.

Have to agree with Botchy – this is the best race over the Christmas period.

I’ll put the favourite in my multiples across the card here as I expect he should win.

But there is some each way value to this race with 3 places and the fact that Yorkhill is second favourite. I’ve imagined how this race will go a thousand times and on every single occcasion, he fails to settle and is out of contention by the last half mile. To get a horse as keen as him to settle at 3m pace and then him also stay the trip, it just won’t happen. His form with Top Notch, Disko and Politologue at Cheltenham has worked out well, but that’s a completely different kettle of fish. Different distance and different proposition entirely.

Djakadam isn’t going to overturn form with Sizing John in my view so at least his price is a bit more realistic for each way purposes. I prefer others at the prices though.

I backed road to respect at Cheltenham citing his previous form in better races and said he could be a graded horse in future. Even I can’t believe what he has achieved after that. He’s looked well worthy of his place in races like this.

I love Valseur Lido and was on him antepost for this last year but it wasn’t to be. If we knew he was fit, 16s is huge. But it would take one hell of a training performance for him to win this (or even place) on his first race in a year.

Outlander I’m not a fan of. Don’t think he’s a particularly great horse and I’d prefer all of his Gigginstown counterparts to him.

Alpha Des obeaux has had a million chances from me but the Aintree run last time suggested he’s done yet another blood vessel. My biggest bet at the festival last year in Might Bites RSA, that was his second blood vessel popping and it has appeared to happen again since. A shame because he won’t fulfil his talent because of that issue.

Zabana occasionally pops up with a big run but this looks a tough ask.

Balko Des Flos won the Galway plate nicely but then has ran two dissapointing runs since in grades company. Can’t have him for this.

Edwulf probably shouldn’t be running. After the horrors of Cheltenham, I’d have preferred to see him retired safe and sound.

I’m going to take a chance at the big prices that Minella Rocco is having an on day (we will know very quickly as he either travels normallly or is tailed off early on). He finished second in the gold cup last season and flew home on the outside and I think he’s overpriced for an each way bet at 40/1.

Who knows, if there is an issue in the Harrington camp, the win part of my bet could even become a player. You never know.

Minella Rocco @ 40/1 each way

KevMc wrote:

Ability wise you question Yorkhill but you like RTR? Yorkhill gave him lengths at every fence at Fairyhouse and still only got beat a neck.

All to do with price, Kev.
Yorkhill imo has a bit to find ability-wise with Sizing John, but although Yorkhill has potential the same as Road To Repect and even better form overall than RTR despite the Ryanair result – Yorkhill has question marks over temperament and stamina too. All of which I could overlook and back if the price was right. My reading of the form makes Yorkhill a 15% fair 11/2 chance which means (with a margin for error) to back Yorkhill I’d want at least 13/2 and he was only available @ 3/1 last night. That 10% difference between my 11/2 and 3/1 made three other horses in the race imo value including Road To Respect. In my 100% book he’s a 10.5% fair 17/2 chance so (with a margin for error) I’d want 10/1 to back him and 13/1 was available last night.

If he wins then he should be a worthy fav for the gold cup, ill happily eat my words, if he was not in this race SJ would be what? 1/2-2/5? So the pricing in this race is based on yorkhill being a grade 1 3miler FTO, he would have to have some engine to win this under those circumstances, he has PTP form but it wasnt the most convincing..

If Yorkhill wins I’ll be man enough to say ‘I got that one wrong’. I’m not convinced by either of the front two in the market for the gold cup as it stands and if Yorkhill proved he stays here, I could potentially find myself backing him for the GC tonight. He loves Cheltenham which would make him interesting. Would depend on the price.

However, I honestly don’t think he will stay today and will end up in the Ryanair.