July Cup 2017

LostSoldier3 wrote:

The sectionalistas say Harry Angel can beat Caravaggio but I don’t see it myself. I’ll leave the win market to the real judges.

I’d be a lot more confident if that pacemaker/spoiler wasn’t in the field, LS. Team tactics might do for Harry.

Gingertipster wrote:

Can not believe the betting here!
Caravaggio too short, worth a lay bet @ 11/10 and hope to back it once lengthening.
Tasleet far too big, now backed it to win four figures @ 11.5/1, on the expectation of laying a bit back when it shortens.
Harry Angel bit too big at 6’s.
Brando worth an each way if they’ll allow you the 33/1.

My 100% book:
Caravaggio 6/4, Harry Angel 5/1, Limato 5/1, Tasleet 7/1, The Tin Man 9/1, Brando 22/1, All the others 500/1.

My bets:
Harry Angel @ 8/1 and 7/1 ante-post and 6/1 now.
Tasleet at 14/1 ante-post and 11.5/1 now.
saver on Brando 39/1.
Laid Caravaggio @ 1.12/1.

Based on the figures you have stated above

100% book Harry Angel 5/1, Tasleet 7/1, Brando 22/1

Odds available Harry Angel 6/1, Tasleet 11.5/1, Brando 39/1

Would your stakes be Harry Angel 31pts, Tasleet 40pts Brando 16pts

Also, do you have a staking calculation for lay bets Eg for Caravaggio at 2.12?

Venture to Cognac wrote:

No big surprise, but Skybet have ditched the 4 places now, but still, Growl is available at 100’s with a few firms, and I’ve topped up again each way.

Eternal optimists we are Bobby. As you know I’ve bet him in the Stewards Cup, but I couldn’t
resist taking the 100/1 with Betvictor, I just wish I had grabbed that 50/1 4 places with
Skybet. It’s asking a lot, and things would have to maybe go wrong for a few at the head of
the market, but you never know, he’s a decent horse. Maybe I’m due another Norton’s Coin
moment

Caravaggio only had 3/4 length to spare over Harry Angel and spoiling tactics by the Coolmore pacemaker didn’t help the Cox horse. Trouble is the same Intelligence Cross is in the field again… Whilst Cox doesn’t appear quite in as good form as he was at Ascot (and O’Brien is)… It’s difficult to see why one should be 11/10 and the other 6/1. Be interesting to see what Adam Kirby does on Harry. If relaxing better than he did in the Commonwealth. Harry should handle going on the soft side of good judging from his Mill Reef victory last year; but speed is his asset and in the right circumstances could have more of it than Caravaggio. Will these be right though. O’Brien is probably right, this is the fastest horse he’s ever trained. But in a vintage year for Sprinters so far Caravagio isn’t as far in front of the others as betting suggests. Five (possibly six) of these could win an average renewal.

The Tin Man beat Tasleet a neck, with Limato a further 3/4 length back third in the Diamond Jubilee. However, Fanshawe was in great form then, The Tin Man wandered and Ascot is his course and that’s probably how good he is. Third there, Limato ran in Dubai when not at his peak, on going a little softer than he enjoys and came back with pulled muscles. Odds are he wasn’t at his best at Ascot and this is his track. Victorious in this race last year in excellent style. Although has some form on a soft surface his best is on a sounder surface and needs the rains to stay away. Tasleet was a little unlucky at Ascot, it would’ve been even closer had he not received a bump when challenging. That imo a career best in proving himself on a firm surface. Had earlier beaten the enigmatic Magical Memory by 2 1/2 lengths in the Duke Of York on soft going. Haggas is in tremendous form with four winners yesterday. Pessimist, he’s apparently a bit worried about the track, but Tasleet only got beaten on the line in the Sommerville over 7f. Should have no problems over 6, acts on soft as well as firm and probably has more improvement in him. Looks massively over-priced at double figure odds.

Brando could be an each way play. Won first time out this year in the Abernant, winning fairly easily by a length from Ornate. Then came a last of 12 in behind Tasleet in the Duke Of York. However, Kevin Ryan was in awful form at the time and even had to shut his stable down for Royal Ascot with a bout of Equine Herpes. Not hitting form again until the beginning of this month. Brando looked a top class sprinter in the making in 2016. Only beaten a little over a length by The Tin Man in last year’s Champion Sprint. Just touched off for 2nd by Growl, who Brando had given 9 lbs and a 1 1/4 lengths beating to when winning the Ayr Gold Cup under 9-10. Growl probably improved/flattered at Ascot, which remains his stand out performance. Not seen at best this year before left in the gate last time out.

None of the others look remotely good enough.

My 100% book for good ground:
Caravaggio 6/4, Harry Angel 5/1, Limato 5/1, Tasleet 7/1, The Tin Man 9/1, Brando 22/1, All the others 500/1.

Can’t believe the market.

My bets:
Harry Angel @ 8/1 and 7/1 ante-post and 6/1 now.
Tasleet at 14/1 ante-post and 11.5/1 now.
saver on Brando 39/1.
Laid Caravaggio @ 1.12/1.

I was on Brando last time and he ran to less than 20 as a RPR. If he can bounce back he should be thereabouts.

Limato is a horse I can never catch right. He let me down for a 7/2 6/1 6/1 treble in the Commonwealth Cup after the first two legs were landed and that remains sore even with the passing of time.

I wouldn’t take Carravaggio at the odds today, I actually felt he was in a bit of trouble last time but the best of luck to the horse.

I feel an in form Limato could win this but he was travelling well last time and kind of folded up when challenged.

I’ll just leave this one.

Blatant non-trier. Will there be any fines?

No.

Congrats Harry Angel. Mighty fine ride from Kirby too, proving he is not just the shaman of Southwell.

Up the Brando too, what a mighty run for the each-way clover.

That was very impressive – well done all backers