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Moehat, Venture, thankfully there was no harm done with Maggio as I did bet him him NRNB. I feel for the small stables when they lose an opportunity like that, and I think he could have played a part.
I will replace him with Pendra and Roi Des Francs for some fun at 66-1. It’s once a year so I will have another on my side I” sure on the day
NRNB is saving my skin here, Pendra has been withdrawn, so now to find another outsider
Pendra was the only one withdrawn and Doctor Harper is now number 40
I feel The Last Samuri at 16/1 is the outstanding value at this moment.
He seems more or less certain to run his race. He’s higher in the ratings now but that is readily offset by the fact that he’s facing some rotten value opposition with loads of question marks about them.
Vieux Lion Rouge is my biggest potential return, having backed him at 28/1. I have The Last Samuri at 20/1 and One For Arthur at 20/1.
It’s probably going to be too lively underfoot for One For Arthur now. On the upside, it doesn’t make it such a slog for The Last Samuri under his big weight and it means Vieux Lion Rouge has more chance of lasting home.
I can’t see Blaklion reversing form with Vieux Lion Rouge, he was clearly outstayed last time and he’s quite a small horse.
There’s tons I don’t fancy and who I feel are way too short.
Just for fun I am having a wee bet on Drop Out Joe, available at 66/1, as a dark horse. He seems to go best when fresh and at 9yo he has some more class than some of those in this race. How many guys named Joe might back this on Saturday? I could see him start shorter than double carpet twice. Paddy Power offer 6 places at 1/5 the odds but only go 50/1, however the extra two places are worth the concession on the odds, with 10/1 a place if he’s in the first six home.
Drop Out Joe 50/1 each-way 1/5th odds 1-2-3-4-5-6 with Paddy Power.
Steeplechasing, get yourself involved.
I don’t think you could call any horse outstanding value at 16/1 in the National could you?!
I’ll take 16/1 all day long if I think it’s value. I would far rather that than back a poorer value 33/1 shot.
I backed West Tip as my biggest ever National bet in 86 and thumped into Rough Quest at 7/1. I recall one pundit who said he felt Rough Quest was actually a 7/4 shot, as bizarre as he felt that sounded to the average punter and Mick Fitzgerald said before the race that:- “If this fellow takes to the fences the way I think he will, we should be coming there swinging at the last”
For me, if you look at The Last Samuri, he only has the one negative. He was runner up last year and he comes in with this race his sole target. He was beaten a fair way by the promising Definitely Red last time but he ismore certain to appreciate the additional distance and he did stay on steadily last time over the shorter trip. When you get down to it, the real negative is the Handicap mark.
If there is one race in the Calendar that is unlikely to pan out in correlation to the Ratings, it is this race. How many “Well in” horses have disappointed over the years? When the horse’s tongue is hanging out at Bechers second time round, it is of little help to recall that the horse is 10 lbs “Well In” at the weights.
When I say The Last Samuri is the best value at 16/1 it refers only to this year’s race. I feel he ticks more boxes than some of those at lower prices than him. Cause Of Causes, More Of That are all poorer value of those ahead of him in the betting, with much more questions to answer.
I feel One For Arthur will be a drifter. If I were the bookie here and looking at faster ground, I would happily go 20/1, rather than the current 14/1 on the Russell runner.
It’s a very open renewal on paper but I feel The Last Samuri each-way six places would be the bet to save your life if the gun was at your head.
Jockey:- “Right lad, only 4 fences to go and, remember, you’re 10 lbs well in here!”
Horse:- “I know that but, well, how can I say this, err, I feel ****ed already!”
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
4 for now; Ucello Conti, Rogue Angel, Vicente + O’Faolain’s Boy.
Put these up Dec 8th + no reason to desert them.
O’Faolain’s Boy is so well handicapped but his prep has been bad. Price factors that in.
Ucello Conti + Rogue Angel should go very well and both have strong winning chances.
Vicente is my least favourite of the four.
While it would be unfair to say the fences were looking on the soft side, does anyone think they were looking a little small? Bar the ditch down the back straight; i thought the fences were looking smaller than they were in December. I thought they got them just right on the Thursday of last years festival…
Christ Almighty, this National Guide seems as lazy and illogical as any I have ever seen.
https://www.oddschecker.com/grand-national/winner
Good luck if you are basing your bets on that pish.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
“24.O’FAOLAINS BOY
Form figures don’t make for good reading and seems very unlikely to be involved in the finish. Near the bottom of our list.”:D
They clearly haven’t watched the 2016 Gold Cup recently.
AINTREE GRAND NATIONAL 4 miles 2 furlongs 74 yards
1. 161 The Last Samuri 12-532 Kim Bailey (5 out of 10) 9 11-10 ***** David Bass fair price 17/2
Trainer Kim Bailey won the Grand National back in 1990 with Mr Frisk, a similarly enthusiastic bold, jumping prominent racer to The Last Samuri. Latter always towards the fore last year (4m2f soft). Only beaten off after the elbow when 6 lengths runner-up to Rule The World (who received 1 lb). That off a 149 mark and is 12 lbs higher this time around. However, it’s possible late rain was against him that day. Improved back over these fences, off 159 when 3rd behind Vieux Lion Rouge in the Becher Chase (3m2f good-soft). The Last Samuri now 5 lbs better off for little over a length with winner, 9 lbs better for a short head with Highland Lodge and 1 lb worse for 1½ lengths that he beat 4th Ucello Conti. (Winner improved/franked the form in Haydock Grand National Trial, won by 3¼ lengths off a 4 lbs higher mark with 18 back to 3rd). The Last Samuri himself probably needed the race after a virus/first run for three months in (3m2f soft) Grimthorpe last time out. Outpaced 6 out, stayed on strongly to go 2nd run-in; no chance with impressive 14 lengths winner Definitely Red who receives the same 12 lbs here. No top-weight has won the National since Red Rum in 1977, but judging one horse against the field is never a good idea. Was also a time where foreign horses had automatic top-weight and the danger element meant owners were reticent about running class horses until on the downgrade (and therefore poorly handicapped). That’s changed with modifications to fences. Although not as well-in as last year The Last Samuri is far from badly handicapped, could improve further/do better on a sounder surface/over these fences. Isn’t very big, but when jumping as well as he does it doesn’t matter. Has all the attributes of a Grand National specialist and is perhaps the ideal each way bet, especially if getting 5 or 6 places.2. 157 More Of That 3-P36U6 Jonjo O’Neil (6/10) 9 11-06 **** Barry Geraghty 16/1
Trainer and owner won this with Don’t Push It. Jonjo said More Of That is the best horse he’s trained. Former top class Stayers Hurdle winner (3m Good). Missed almost a full season and hasn’t quite hit the same heights over fences. Favourite for last year’s RSA novice chase (3m good) only 8½ lengths 3rd after breaking a blood-vessel. Has since had an operation, shown improvement and put two good performances together. In Irish Gold Cup (3m soft) won by Sizing John penultimate start. Raced mid-division, still traveling powerfully on home turn; would have been involved in the finish but got in too close and paying the penalty at the final fence. Didn’t quite fulfill that promise last time. Fair, never dangerous 10 lengths 6th to same horse in Cheltenham Gold Cup (3m2f good). Dropped out, outpaced 3 out and couldn’t quicken straight. Should stay further than 3m2f. Now 1 lb worse off and 3½ lengths to make up on 5th Saphir Du Rheu. Lightly raced for a 9 year old and still with potential to progress. Effective on soft and good ground. Not the most fluent jumping technique, not giving fences much room for error. Has an air of unfinished business about him, but time is running out to win a big one. Owner JP McManus’s retained jockey Barry Geraghty – who won the Grand National on Monty’s Pass in 2003 – has supposedly picked More Of That over Cause Of Causes.3. 156 Shantou Flyer 529142 Rebecca Curtis (4/10) 7 11-05 ** Johnathon Moore 300/1
Improved on first outing for Rebecca Curtis, winning a Grade 3 Handicap off a 7 lbs lower mark than today of 149. Held up on inner, took closer order start of final circuit, bit slow 8th, hampered 4 out, stayed on to lead last. Beat Village Vic (who gave 9 lbs) by 3 lengths. Similar form last two starts; fair 10½ lengths 4th to Foxtail Hill (who received 23 lbs) off this 156 mark. Did as well as could be expected last time, outclassed, staying on 15 lengths 2nd to Cue Card in Grade 1 Ascot Chase. All those three races at 2m5f on soft and is all about stamina at that trip. Good form at 3m on good ground for former trainer and not inconceivable could improve stepped up for his new yard. However, asking a lot to do so well at this considerably longer distance. Fell at the 18th in 2016 National Hunt Novice (4m good-soft) before stamina became an issue. Trainer had Teaforthree place in the 2013 Grand National.4. 156 Perfect Candidate 01-02P1 Fergal O’Brien (5/10) 10 11-05 ** Paddy Brennan 80/1
Form seemed exposed as a hold up horse, but Perfect Candidate has put up a couple of super efforts since cheek pieces and front-running tactics applied; jumping impeccably both times. Excellent nose second to Theatre Guide (who gave 2 lbs) off 157 in Unicoin Handicap Chase (3m2f good). Latest start won an Exeter Veterans Handicap (3m soft) off a 150 mark by 5 lengths from Whats Happening (who received 13 lbs). Veterans chases have fewer progressive horses and it’s asking a lot to win a Grand National off a 6 lbs higher mark and unlikely to get his own way up front this time. Ignore penultimate start, outclassed and held up when pulled up in Cotswold Chase (3m2f soft). Possibly best on undulating courses (Aintree is flat) although gives the impression could be suited by this greater test of stamina. Jockey Paddy Brennan came close to Grand National victory on Saint Are in 2015. This one isn’t a perfect candidate, but rates a lively outsider.5. 156 Saphir De Rheu 5-3F215 Paul Nicholls (6/10) 8 11-05 *** Sam Twiston-Davies 33/1
Good 6¼ lengths 5th to Sizing John in Cheltenham Gold Cup (3m2f good) latest start, running right up to his best. Is 1 lb better off with 6th More Of That and beat him 3½ lengths. So on “form” should beat that one. However, temperament and stamina are question marks. Coming around the home turn you might have thought he’d have done even better, traveling really well. But that’s him, weak finisher and not won the number of races his level of chasing ability might imply. Last couple of wins came in 3 and 4 runner fields, latest a simple task at Kelso (2m7f heavy). Might not be a coincidence gave outside to nobody and jumping well both there and Cheltenham – which hasn’t always been the case. Possibly claustrophobic and it’ll be more difficult to keep away from rivals in a 40 runner race. Stays 3¼m but travels so well in his races a drop in trip might be a better idea. All ground comes alike. Nicholls first jockey Sam Twiston-Davies has picked Saphir De Rheu and probably is the stable’s best , though might be wishing could jump ship to ride his father’s Blaklion.6. 154 Roi Des Francs 6-320541 Gordon Elliott (Ire) (3/10) 8 11-03 * Jack Kennedy 400/1
Good 12 lengths 2nd trying to give Champagne West 7 lbs in a listed Tramore chase (2m5f soft to heavy). Winner went on to victory in Thyestes under a big weight. Roi Des Francs subsequently not at his best beyond 3 miles on any of last four starts, including when successful last time. Gave 10 lbs to whole field (3m2f yielding to soft). Proximity of thoroughly exposed 118 rated Topper Thornton beaten just 11 lengths in 3rd casts severe doubts on the form. Earlier Roi Des Francs was a head and 3 lengths 3rd, giving 10 lbs to old stagers Champagne Fever (won on first run in 18 months) and Lord Windermere in a listed (2m6f yielding) – also dubious form. Sometimes takes a strong hold, including in 2016 RSA (3m good) beaten 20½ lengths by Blaklion who’s now remarkably 2 lbs better off. Roi Des Francs is possibly best with give underfoot. One of Ireland’s brightest young talents Jack Kennedy takes the ride.7. 153 Wounded Warrior 3/226-406P Noel Meade (Ire) (6/10) 8 11-02 * Sean Flanagan 500/1
Another of Gigginstown/O’Leary’s. As a novice Wounded Warrior impressed as one that might make up in to a Grand National horse. Good 7½ lengths 3rd to Don Poli in 2015 RSA (3m good) staying on strongly. Also 2¼ lengths 2nd to Valseur Lido in Grade 1 novice at Punchestown (3m1f good-yielding). Often appearing held in his races before superior stamina kicked in. However, off course from April to January and hasn’t seemed the same horse, looking unenthusiastic. Best run for some time in Thyestes penultimate start, 22 lengths 6th to Champagne West (who gave 2 lbs). Upturn didn’t last; first time blinkered, never going or jumping with any fluency and pulled up latest outing. Formerly genuine racehorse who’s running as if something amiss. Will need to come back to his very best as appears handicapped on old form.8. 153 Wonderful Charm P2P7-112 Paul Nicholls (6/10) 9 11-02 ** Katie Walsh 132/1
Will this be the year a woman jockey wins the Grand National? Katie Walsh came closest on Seabass in 2012 and am sure it’ll happen one day. Katie did make a mistake at Cheltenham, giving Wonderful Charm plenty to do in the Foxhunter (3m2f good) at Cheltenham. Finishing fastest but ran out of time, beaten a neck by stablemate Pacha Du Polder. In truth, this season’s hunter chase form is yet to rival Wonderful Charm’s very best. Beaten in another finish of necks (3rd) off a 6 lbs higher mark (159) in 2015, 3m1f (good) over Mildmay fences at this meeting. So at his best is fairly treated and proven at this meeting. But is he still capable of that? Certainly better than the bear Cheltenham form suggests. Has some good performances on soft ground but seems more consistent on a sounder surface. Didn’t jump or travel with his usual fluency only start beyond 3m3f, beaten before stamina became an issue and pulled up in last year’s Grand National. Katie was in hospital Thursday night after a fall and thought to be missing the ride today, but thankfully no bones broken.9. 152 Tenor Nivernais P5-34312 Venetia Williams (4/10) 10 11-01 * Liam Treadwell 400/1
Trainer Venitia Williams and jockey Liam Treadwell teamed up to win the 2009 Grand National with 100/1 shot Mon Mome. Tenor Nivernais has some good form on left-handed courses, but can jump right; as he did last time at left-handed Kelso (3m heavy) in a conditions listed event. Odds-on, well below form when 21 lengths 2nd, finishing tired and having a second hard race in succession. Goes particularly well at right-handed Ascot and impressed off this 152 mark under an attacking ride penultimate start (3m Soft). Bar a couple jumped fast and accurately in front and won by 30 lengths, with 2nd Go Conquer – who received 15 lbs – heavily eased. Undoubtedly well-in here; set to race off an 8 lbs higher mark in future handicaps. However, can he reproduce the form this way around? Can he keep the pace up for another 1¼ miles? Does he need to lead and will he be able to? In my opinion a negative answer to all. Splayed action means could be seen to best advantage on a soft surface.10. 152 Blaklion 113-4532 Nigel Twiston-Davies (7/10) 8 11-01 ***** Noel Fehily 17/2
Last season’s RSA (3m good) winner with jockey Ryan Hatch unable to claim his usual 3 lb allowance. Jumped well throughout, looked beaten on home turn before staying on in determined style up the Cheltenham hill to beat Shaneshill ½ a length. Improved on that form stepped up to 3m4f for the first time (good-soft) in Haydock Grand National Trial latest start. Bit slow over the first, accurate thereafter bar a slight mistake 4 out. Winner Vieux Lion Rouge always going that bit better, but Blaklion only beaten off close home to go down by 3¼ lengths with 18 back to 3rd Vintage Clouds who received 16 lbs. First two are well-handicapped here off the same marks. Blaklion seems sure to stay and attitude also a plus. Trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies has won the Grand National twice with Earth Summit 1998 and Bindaree 2002. Started this week with only 2 wins from his last 92 runners, but three winners since have allayed virus fears and with some place efforts has gone from a trainer form 2/10 to a good 7/10. Blaklion must now have an excellent chance. Not very big but usually a sound jumper. With previous jockeys Ryan Hatch and Willie Twiston-Davies both out injured and brother Sam claimed by Nicholls, top jockey Noel Fehily gets the leg up.11. 152 Drop Out Joe 9/411570-1 Charlie Longsdon (5/10) 9 11-01 *** Tom O’Brien 40/1
On the face of it Drop Out Joe is inconsistent, but it’s a completely different story when fresh. Outstanding record first time out/after a long break – albeit wins coming from June to November. So fact he’s not run since June is a massive positive. Trainer Charlie Longsdon almost pulled off a big win at Cheltenham with a similar sort, Pendra. Drop Out Joe’s first run for 2½ months when winning 19 runner Summer Cup at Uttoxetter (3m2f good) off 144. Tracked pace towards outer, jumped well although slightly left at times, led 4 out, found plenty run-in. Runner-up now 12 lbs better off for just 2 lengths, however Ballynagour looks on the downgrade whilst Drop Out Joe progressing; that said an 8 lbs rise for a 2 lengths win does looks steep. Some form on soft ground but sounder surface will help him stay. Disappointing both starts beyond 3m2f. Penultimate effort in Bet365 at Sandown (3m5f good) well beaten before stamina became an issue. In 2015 Scottish National (4m good) 36 lengths 9th of 11 finishers to Wayward Prince. Unusually racing mid-division amongst horses, possibly best with more room. Headway to go 6th, mistakes 6 and 5 out on inner, faded. Probability is he’s now too high in the weights and won’t stay, but at close to three figure prices is worth a speculative interest.12. 151 Le Mercurey 81-32523 Paul Nichols (6/10) 7 11-00 ** Sean Bowen 132/1
Is Le Mercurey the handicap good thing? 3¼ lengths 2nd to Native River (who gave just 1 lb) in the Denman (2m7f soft) and 3½ lengths 2nd to Many Clouds (who gave 5 lbs) in a listed Chase (3m1f good-soft). That would put Native River in here on an official rating of 155 (Le Mercurey’s 151 + 1 lb + 3 lengths). Native River won the Hennessey and Welsh Grand National off 155… And Many Clouds (151 + 5 lbs + 4 lengths) in at 160. He won the 2015 Grand National off a mark of 160. However, those two horses are similar staying types, finding a lot more off the bridle than Le Mercurey who’s speedier, effective at 2½ miles and travels well. Those races not playing to the winners strengths and more in hand than distances suggest. Le Mercurey ran poorly last time out, had a hard race in Kelso Premier Chase (2m7f). Quickly beaten and stopping to a walk run-in, 30 lengths behind inferior winner Seldom Inn (who received only 5 lbs). Was it the heavy ground to blame or stamina test or the race coming just 3 weeks after Newbury? Le Mercurey jumps well, has an awkward head carriage and wears blinkers. Disappointing 5th in 13 runner handicap off 152 mark when racing mid-division. Probably best suited to disputing or tracking pace at 2½ to 3m1f in single figure fields, not 4m2f with 40 runners.13. 150 The Young Master 4631-F06 Neil Mulholland (3/10) 8 10-13 *** Mr Sam Waley-Cohen 50/1
Ante-post favourite for this immediately after winning the Bet365 at Sandown off a mark of 148 (3m5f good) on final day of last season. Beat Just A Par who’s now 4 lbs better off for a short head. Tracked pace jumping well, pushed along 4 out, led 3 out, headed and fought back to get up close home. An amateur jockey hasn’t won the Grand National since 1990, part owner’s son Sam Waley-Cohen has a good record around these fences mainly in the shorter races. Unable to claim his 3 lbs allowance in Grand National. Sam’s good record didn’t help on The Young Master’s reappearance in Becher (3m2f good-soft). Possibly given a sighter on first run over these fences, beaten by Valentines; well behind when not getting very high and fell 2 out. Jumping is usually an asset, hopefully won’t leave a bad memory. Hurdles confidence booster followed, then back to fences in the Ultima (3m1f good-soft) at Cheltenham off this mark. Didn’t match his 3rd in the 2016 renewal. Made early ground on inner to track pace, 3 lengths down on leaders but outpaced down the hill before staying on. Finished a well beaten 6th, 20 lengths behind winner Un Temps Pour Tout (who gave 5 lbs). The Young Master has been aimed at this race all season and still unexposed at extreme distances; could do with the trainer being in better form.14. 150 Cause Of Causes 1P-5P051 Gordon Elliott (Ire) (3/10) 9 10-13 *** Mr Jamie Codd 25/1
This isn’t the Cheltenham. Remarkably Cause Of Causes has won only 3 of 22 chase starts and all at the Cheltenham Festival. Any race prior to March can be discarded, but what happens afterwards? Poor 12th in 2014 Irish Grand National and pulled up in the 2016 Scottish version (4m good-soft). Similarly well-handicapped in 2015 to today, running no more than ok in Aintree Grand National, 27¼ lengths 8th of 19 finishers to Many Clouds. Poor ride, jumped well enough, alongside eventual 3rd Monbeg Dude in last after a circuit, still going well and seemingly by design still in rear second Bechers. Made considerable ground from Valentines but didn’t have that finishing burst – weakening. Normally dropped out the back and same tactics will probably be used, not easy to pull off here. Now off a 4 lbs higher mark than 2015, but arguably improved since. Trainer Gordon Elliott doesn’t seem in great form at the moment. Won with Silver Birch in 2007 after also running well in the Cross-Country. However, they actually went slower around Cheltenham’s 3m6f37yrds (good) average speed 16.32 secs per furlong than the 2015 Grand National 4m3f110yrds (good) 15.11 secs. Cause Of Causes goes well on good going, his asset around the Cross-Country is speed, taking the home turn in second and then quickening 9 lengths clear off slow fractions. Grand Nationals usually run at both a faster pace and over further. Does he have the requisite stamina? Barry Geraghty may have had the official choice of the owner’s horses, Jamie Codd has struck up a big race partnership with Cause Of Causes at Cheltenham and difficult to take him off today.15. 150 Regal Encore PP-2PP1P Anthony Honeyball (10/10) 9 10-13 * Robbie Power 132/1
All or nothing is Regal Encore, even his illustrious owner doesn’t seem to know when he’s going to strike. Career best, won Silver Cup (3m good-soft in fog) at 20/1 off 144 penultimate start. Sent to sleep out the back on outer away from rivals, pushed along fully 5 out without response, still 15+ lengths behind rounding home turn, consented and finished with a flourish as others tired. Beat Minella Daddy (who received 2 lbs) 1¾ length. Upped to today’s mark (2m5f soft) at Cheltenham in January. Hooded this time; inconsistent when not hooded, consistently pulled up 3 from 3 hooded over fences. Again dropped out on outer, almost fell first, jumping fell apart and not wanting to know. No going requirements to the form pattern. Could stay the trip but likely to get well behind. Temperamental. 2007 winning jockey Robbie Power will need all his wits to bring this one home in front. However, trainer Anthony Honeyball is in absolutely outstanding form, 10 wins from last 23 runners, with 5 runner-ups.16. 149 Vieux Lion Rouge 1/1F267-11 David Pipe (7/10) 8 10-12 ***** Tom Scudamore 17/2
Disputing favouritism. Trainer David Pipe won the 2008 Grand National with Comply Or Die. Vieux Lion Rouge appeared not to get home (4m2f soft) off 146 at the age of 7 last year on his first season chasing. Towards rear, headway from The Chair to track pace by second Bechers, making a mistake there and reached for Canal Turn, weakening from Melling Road. Also going best 3 out in 4m National Hunt Novice (good-soft) before weakening straight bin to a 20 lengths 6th. Showed aptitude for Aintree again by winning Becher (3m2f good-soft) off 142. In rear, went 5th end of first circuit, 3rd Elbow, stayed on to just pip the idling Highland Lodge who’s now strangely 4 lbs worse off; 3rd The Last Samuri is now 5 lbs better for just over length, 4th Ucello Conti 6 lbs better for 2¾. However, Vieux Lion Rouge has progressed since; winning Haydock Grand National Trial off this 149 mark (3m4f good-soft) by 3¼ lengths from Blaklion who re-opposes on the same terms. 18 lengths back to 3rd which suggests both the first two improved quite a bit. Only had 24 days between Cheltenham and last year’s National. Excellent record fresh and 49 days here could help. Recent wins came off even longer breaks. Horses stay further as they get older and a less sapping surface could make a difference too. Obviously has a question over stamina but still very much one to consider. Tom Scudamore’s grandfather Michael won the 1959 Grand National on Oxo. Champion jockey dad Peter never won it.17. 149 Definitly Red F1-131U1 Brian Ellison (6/10) 8 10-12 ****** Danny Cook 13/2
Definitely has to come in to calculations after running away with the Grimthorpe at Doncaster (3m2f soft). Got in a bit tight to the 5th, bit slow there his only “mistake”, jumping to the front 5 out and going further and further clear in straight as rider didn’t look round and kept up to his work. Possibly not full value for the 14 lengths winning margin. (Runner-up The Last Samuri running over an inadequate trip, badly outpaced at one stage and coming back from a lay off – re-opposes on the same terms here)… But Definitely Red was impressive and certainly well-in. On 149 here, will be 10 lbs higher in future handicaps. Also won Rowland Meyrick (3m soft) off 141 by 7 lengths from Wakanda (who gave 8 lbs). Definitly Red held up, moved up a circuit out on outside to track pace, led 4 out, untidy 2 out with race won. For one making a living handicapping has an outstanding 53% lifetime strike rate (sound temperament). Might look slightly disconcerting out of the first 3 in the largest fields he’s faced. However, 3 of those 4 came at the Cheltenham Festival, including a good 8¾ lengths 7th in Champion Bumper. Only start beyond 3m2f was disappointing in 20 runner 4 mile 2016 National Hunt Novice (good-soft) well behind when falling 2 out but beaten before stamina came in to it. Obviously suited by the Grimthorpe trip and settles as though will now stay further. On penultimate start in Peter Marsh (3m soft 14 ran). Reached for and mistake 12th, challenging for a remote 4th when badly hampered and “unseated”; would’ve been a below par 3rd. Jumps fences in two ways, economically in behind horses, boldly and well with an unhindered view. Outstanding chance on the book and has been rightly backed in to favourite in recent days. Deserves to be even shorter despite good ground being a small negative; never run on ground officially firmer than good-soft over jumps. Rider Danny Cook learnt his trade at the Pipes in the days of Comply Or Die.18. 149 Ucello Conti 36-74724 Gordon Elliott (Ire) (3/10) 9 10-12 *** Darrell Jacob 33/1
Last year’s Grand National 6th (4m3f soft), after not jumping at all fluently. Dropped out on inner, pecked (both) Bechers, mistake Valentines, headway from 16th, mistakes 19th and 26th, only around 5 lengths down 2 out, weakened and beaten 37 lengths. Ran well on form, but again made mistakes in Becher off 148 (3m2f good-soft) mistakes 9th and 17th, also slow and losing ground at both Chair and final fence – only length down at the time, stayed on run-in. Ucello Conti now 6 lbs better off for 2¾ lengths with winner Vieux Lion Rouge (who’s improved since) 10 lbs better for 2½ with 2nd Highland Lodge and 1 lb better with 3rd The Last Samuri for 1½. Good 7½ lengths 2nd to Champagne West who gave 11 lbs in Thyestes (3m1f soft) at Gowran Park penultimate start. Mid-field, headway to challenge home turn, no match for winner but pulled 9½ lengths clear of the rest. Ran well in his prep race, Leinster National (3m soft to heavy). Again on inner, every chance when not fluent last, weakened, beaten 15½ lengths by Abolitionist (who received 9 lbs). Twice jumped Aintree worse than he does conventional fences. Jockey Darrell Jacob won the Grand National by the narrowest of margins on Neptune Collonges in 2012.19. 149 Double Shuffle 35-2P512 Tom George (8/10) 7 10-12 ** Adrian Heskin 80/1
Couple of indolent displays, pulled up and 5th of 8, downing tools; didn’t look good for Double shuffle’s prospects. However, stepped up to 3m (good) and headgear on for the first time brought transformation. Hooded, tracked pace, traveling and jumping far more sweetly until pushed along on the turn for home, mistake 3 out, slightly left 2 out before finding more than previously. Beat Go Conquer (who received 7 lbs) 3½ lengths off a 143 mark. Upped 6 lbs to this 149 over same course, distance and going (Kempton, 3m, good) in the Betbright (old Racing Post). Hood worked again, raced very wide away from his rivals, disputing lead from 9th jumping brilliantly until too bold, reached and blundered 3 out, fought back but couldn’t match cheeky ½ length winner Pilgrims Bay (who received 19 lbs). Double Shuffle is at his best on good or good-soft. Jumped boldly and only made mistakes in home straight at Kempton. Hopefully the hood will work a third time but does he need room at his fences? 39 rivals to contend with here. The way he travels through races at 3m suggests the trip will be a major problem.20. 149 Houblon Des Obeaux 41P-3484 Venitia Williams (4/10) 10 10-12 ** Charlie Deutsch 40/1
Once just short of top class with a mark of 162 which would’ve seen him joint top weight here; some 13 lbs higher than here. Came out of 2014 Hennessey a 3 lbs better horse than winner Many Clouds. Obviously thrown-in if returning to anything like his best. Currently running to a level long way below that form. Extreme tests suit him these days. Fair 16¾ lengths 3rd to Native River (who gave 2 lbs) in Welsh National (3m6f soft). Mid-div, headway on outer to go 2nd 12th, disputed lead going well 5 out before winner went clear, stayed on. Raced twice since the National weights came out. Disappointed at Haydock so raced off 5 lbs lower than here, 144 in Midlands National (4m1f soft). Big step back in the right direction, showing more enthusiasm returned to prominent tactics. Disputed lead, put in a short one and mistake 18th, under pressure 5 out, slow 4 out, lost place before stayed on to take 4th run-in; 9¼ lengths behind Chase The Spud (who received 14 lbs). Not one to write off but more consistent on soft. Effectively carries 3 lbs more because conditional jockey Charlie Deutsch can not claim his allowance.21. 149 Pleasant Company 413P1-41 Willie Mullins (8/10) 9 10-12 **** Ruby Walsh 22/1
Jockey Ruby Walsh has won the Grand National twice, in 2000 on Papillon and 2005 Hedgehunter. Ruby seemed at pains to win by the narrowest of margins on Pleasant Company last time out (3m1f heavy) in the Bobbyjoe Chase. Last of 9 early and content to be around 15 lengths adrift 5 out, still going well at the final fence with a length to make up on Fairyhouse’s short run-in before finally going for everything. Superiority much greater than ½ length over runner-up Thunder And Roses (level weights) although run of the race suited Pleasant Company far more. Exaggerated waiting tactics probably due to nearly giving it away in the Pat Taaffe (3m1f good-yielding). Led 3 out, clear, looking likely to win easily, pricked ears and cut back near line, ¾ length to spare with Regal Encore (who’s now 2 lbs worse off). Raced prominently when amateur ridden and too keen in 2016 4m novice (good-soft) only time he’s raced beyond 3m1f. Different horse hooded nowadays, held up and settles better. Not the easiest of rides, but if anyone can win on him – Ruby can. Pleasant Company coming here on a career high and characteristics mean it’s difficult for the handicapper to know what Pleasant Company has in hand; could be well or poorly handicapped. Lightly raced and inexperienced for a race like this.22. 148 One For Arthur 5243-151 Lucinda Russell (8/10) 8 10-11 **** Derek Fox 22/1
Lucinda Russell’s partner and assistant, ex-champion jockey Peter Scudamore never won the Grand National as a rider, was assistant trainer to Nigel Twiston-Davies when Earth Summit won in 1998. One For Arthur seeks to become Scotland’s first winner since Rubstic in 1979. Improved last time out on his first start over an extreme trip. Won Classic Chase (3m5f soft) off 137. Dropped out, almost brought down 2nd, still in rear 6 out, made ground easily to challenge 2 out where putting in a short one (jumped it fine) went clear to win by 6 lengths from Goodtoknow (who’s now just 3lbs better off after winning next start off 1 lb higher). The below par Houblon Des Oeaux now 14 lbs better off for 19½ lengths 4th. Improvement shown by One For Arthur renders differences in weights of Becher principles meaningless. Worth noting how he coped though (3m2f good-soft). Dropped out, pecked badly 2nd, reached for 3rd, jumped well thereafter, still last and going well Valentines, 10 lengths to make up crossing Melling Road, only under maximum pressure after the last, never nearer. Beaten 3 lengths by Vieux Lion Rouge. Judgment of pace will count for loads here, especially if the ground is a lot firmer (they don’t usually come back) and jockey Derek Fox has said he’ll ride the same way. One For Arthur has been upped 11 lbs for his 6 lengths stayers race victory which seems harsh even allowing for being hampered. However, copes well with big fields and remains unexposed as a stayer.23. 148 Ballynagour 722PPP David Pipe (7/10) 11 10-11 * David Noonan 500/1
Is age catching up with Ballynagour? The 11 year old pulled up on his last three runs. However; there are positives if looking hard enough. Lost his form in late Autumn/Winter in every season and returned to form from March to October. Very well handicapped on the form of two big Summer handicaps. Summer Cup (3m2f good) 2nd off a 152 mark. Now 12 lbs better off for 2 lengths with winner Drop Out Joe. Towards rear, headway on bridle and looked the winner between last two fences, outstayed. Then upped 5 lbs to 157 (2m5f good) Summer Plate, 8 lengths 2nd to Long House Hall who received 14 lbs. More prominent than usual in Mid-division, quite badly squeezed up after 4 out, still going well within himself challenging 2 out, not the pace of winner, ran on. Although Ballynagour should run better than of late, stamina is a gigantic concern at this marathon trip. Unseated at the 19th last year after mistakes at the 14th and 17th.24. 148 O’Faolains Boy P1P87-PP Rebecca Curtis (4/10) 10 10-11 ** Paul Townend 132/1
2014 RSA winner (3m good) coming through late to beat Smad Place a neck. Lightly raced and obviously had problems. Best effort since when running well for a long way in 2016 Cheltenham Gold Cup (3m2f good) despite looking outclassed beforehand, making the running, jumping boldly and well in first time cheek pieces. Don Cossack, Djakadam and Cue Card not getting by him until going to 3 out. Paying for those exertions weakening and beaten over 50 lengths by the best horse of 2016. Off 11 months, no promise in two starts this season on soft ground, latest at Newbury (3m2f) off a mark 5 lbs lower than he races off here. Raced in 5th, in touch until pushed along 6 out and quickly beaten, pulled up after 5 out. Cheek pieces not working a second time though interestingly the last three pulled ups have been the three times he’s tongue tied (isn’t here)… And two good performances racing at the head of affairs, won a 2 finisher race (3m soft) in 2015; making all with another impressive round of jumping. Has won on heavy but best on good going. Very well handicapped on some form but is he still capable? Reportedly has had another wind operation.25. 148 Highland Lodge 84/721P-2 James Moffatt (8/10) 11 10-11 ** Henry Brooke 33/1
What has the handicapper done to Highland Lodge? Won the 2015 Becher Chase and then didn’t get in the 2016 Grand National. So he’s slammed him for finishing 2nd in this season’s Becher off a mark of 137 just to make sure he gets in here and ruined his chance. Never seen a better display of jumping, barely touched a twig, always disputing or leading outright. Looked to have the race in safe keeping well past the Elbow, heard the crowd, pricked his ears and idled badly, rallying once Vieux Lion Rouge came at him but too late. Despite the winner going on to improve in the Haydock Grand National trial is incredibly 4 lbs worse off for a short head with that horse; 9 lbs worse with 3rd The Last Samuri for a length and 10 lbs worse for 2½ lengths with 4th Ucello Conti and on the same terms with 5th One For Arthur, despite latter’s subsequent impressive Classic Chase victory. Highland Lodge should have gone up between 3 and 5 lbs, handicapper’s given 11. Highland Lodge likes room and enjoys being in front, probably has to be there otherwise disinterested. Couldn’t get a prominent early position in Scottish Grand National (4m good-soft) never jumping or moving with any fluency. Age should help him stay. Harder to make all in the National but clearly loves this place. His small stable are in good form.26. 147 Bishops Road 11UF-403 Kerry Lee (6/10) 9 10-10 ** Jamie Moore 500/1
Victory in atrocious conditions for the 3 finisher 2016 Haydock Grand National Trial (3m4f heavy) was Bishops Road’s last success. Clouted the 2nd (ditch) but jumped well afterwards. Number of runners may be important. Didn’t get any further than the first in either Topham (39 ran) or Bet365 (20) at Sandown. Encouraging reappearance in 9 runner Rehearsal (2m7f soft) off 154. Held up, bit deliberate early, mistake 4th but warmed to task, blundered 5 out, moved forward but no extra from 3 out to be 9 lengths 4th to Otago Trail (who received 8 lbs). Then disappointing in 20 runner Welsh Grand National (3m6f soft) again off 154. Confidence went, got in short at 11th, mistakes 12th, 13th, 14th, and 17th, losing his position. Finished 46 lengths behind winner Native River (who gave 1 lb). Not that fluent last time out in 14 runner Peter Marsh either (3m soft). Dropped out, mistake 4th, headway to track pace around home turn, outpaced, mistake 3 out, slow next. Finished 3rd, beaten 25 lengths by winner Bristol De Mai (who gave 5 lbs). Hopefully a short break will do Bishops Road some good. Fairly handicapped, stays well, raced mainly on soft ground and seems best in smaller fields that don’t test jumping.27. 147 Lord Windermere 13//73PP-295 Jim Cullotty (Ire) (?) 11 10-10 ** Leighton Aspell 300/1
2014 Cheltenham Gold Cup (3m2f good) victory was a poor for a Gold Cup, beat On His Own a short head after being well behind in the early stages. Although on a mark of 147 is thrown-in on that form. Difficult to know what form of reappearance represents (2m6f yielding). Bit awkward 2 out and three in line final fence. Just missed out by a head to Arkle runner-up Champagne Fever (levels) having his first start for 1½ years. (Roi Des Francs 3rd who gave 10 lbs and now 3 lbs better off for 3 lengths out of form at the time). Then in Grade 1 Lexus (3m yielding). Pushed along 8 out, lost place, 40 lengths 9th to Outlander. No better last time in Bobbyjoe (3m1f heavy). Possible ground excuse, very best on good ground. Numerous mistakes/slow jumps, never happy in first time cheek pieces and out on his feet. Only 2 lbs better off and 70 lengths to make up on winner Pleasant Company. Jockey Leighton Aspell is going for his third win in the Grand National in three years after Pineau De Re and Many Clouds. Lord Windermere is tongue tied for the first time here.28. 147 Saint Are 1P0-53F2 Tom George (8/10) 11 10-10 ** Davey Russell 66/1
2015 Grand National (4m2f good) 1¾ lengths runner-up to Many Clouds (who gave 17 lbs). Lucky to stay on his feet at the 1st fence, lesser errors at 14th, 18th and second Bechers. Can make lengths at his fences when meeting them long/right, but makes mistakes in close. Better on good or good-soft; but seemed to lose confidence in last year’s (soft) Grand National. Leading when slight mistake 17th and barely jumped another fence correctly thereafter; lost lead 19th, gradually went backwards and pulled up final fence. Fell at the first in the Becher on latest try over these fences. So jumping is far from flawless, can be bold and make ground when getting them right. One of his best runs since 2015 last time out. Head 2nd in Veterans race (3m good) to Killala Quay (who received 17 lbs) in a three way photo. Led, jumped boldly and well bar getting in tight at 7th, put down at next (water) headed 3 out, stayed on again, just missed out. Comes to hand this time of year and has an excellent record at this meeting, twice a winner of handicaps. Blinkered for the first time here, but with a 4 lbs higher mark than 2015’s excellent 2nd, it’s hard to see 11 year old Saint Are going one better.29. 147 Vicente 451-F669 Paul Nicholls (6/10) 8 10-10 *** Brian Hughes 50/1
Some of us had 50/1 when Neptune Collonges got up on the line to win the 2012 Grand National. Paul Nicholls has another son of Dom Alco in Vicente. Won last year’s Scottish National (4m good-soft) beating Alvarado (who received 11 lbs) 2¾ lengths. Mid-division, in close at 15th, mistake 17th, headway to track pace, hit 7 out, challenged last, stayed on strongly. Fell when out of contention in Hennessey (3m2f good-soft). Not at all fluent all other races this term. Welsh National (3m6f soft) mistakes 8th and 9th, 26 lengths 6th to Native River (who gave 4 lb). In Skybet Chase (3m good) again numerous errors, bad one 7 out finishing him off, 31½ lengths 6th to Ziga Boy. Latest effort in Haydock Grand National Trial (3m4f heavy) making ground towards leaders in back straight before mistake and lost ground, under pressure and beaten by 7 out. Last of 9 finishers, 47 lengths to make up and only 3 lbs better off with winner Vieux Lion Rouge. Positives: Vicente came to form this time of year last season (and the one before) and only 1 lb higher than Ayr success; so obviously fairly treated and acts on the probable good ground… Trouble is his jumping!30.b 146 Just A Par 1/09202-4P1 Paul Nicholls (6/10) 10 10-09 ** Harry Cobden 100/1
Another one for Paul Nicholls, Just A Par was sold on Thursday. Won 2015 Bet365 at Sandown and 2nd in same race last year. Raced two thirds the way back, jumping well, around 6 lengths down 4 out, headway to track pace and under pressure home turn, stayed on well to get his head in front run-in, just touched off on line by The Young Master. Just A Par now 4 lbs better off for a short head. Two poor runs over National course. Last year (4m2f soft) always towards the back, skewed 2nd, reached for first Canal Turn, mistake 18th, last place 4 out, continued when others in front pulled up. 2014 Becher (3m2f good-soft) lost ground going wide around Becher, Foinavon and Canal Turn; including a mistake at the smallest obstacle – Foinavon – and putting the brakes on and slow Canal Turn, pulled up 17th. Back to form off this 146 mark latest start. Won a veterans chase (3m2f soft) – a minimum trip for Just A Par – by 2¼ lengths from No Duffer (who received 2 lbs). Taking advantage of others going off too fast, around 20 lengths down end of the back straight, stayed on to lead jumping the final fence. Young jockey Harry Cobden was on Just A Par at Newbury last time.31. 146 Measureofmydreams 113F0-P0 Noel Meade (Ire) (6/10) 9 10-09 * Donagh Meyler 500/1
Claim to fame 3rd in the 2016 National Hunt Novice Chase (4m good-soft). Dropped out, blundered 4th, gradually made up ground to lead 3 out, mistake last, stayed on. Beaten 1¼ and 6 lengths by Minella Rocco and Native River off level weights; that pair subsequently 2nd and 3rd in the Gold Cup. However, both those two improved significantly in the interim; Measureofmydreams gone backwards. Made joint favourite for Scottish National afterwards but fell at the 3rd (first ditch). Then poor 27 lengths 12th in Bet365 behind The Young Master. Transferred from Willie Mullins to Noel Meade and off 9 months, no form in two valuable handicaps this season. In first one, Thyestes – never jumping with any enthusiasm and pulled up before 3 out. Never dangerous 48 lengths 13th to Un Temps Pour Tout in Ultima (3m1f good-soft) latest start. Mistakes 9th and 10th, then squeezed up on turn after 12th and dropped to rear, some headway to mid-division 3 out, left behind. Probable Measureofmydreams won’t reproduce his Mullins form.32. 146 Raz De Maree 0U-21722 Gavin Cromwell (Ire) (6/10) 12 10-09 *** Ger Fox 33/1
Off a 140 mark Raz De Maree was 38 lengths behind Pineau De Ree in the 2014 Grand National (4m3½f good) when trained by Dessie Hughes. In touch on inside, blundered 2nd and gradually lost ground, bumped at Foinavon, mistake Chair, still tailed off 3 out, stayed on through tiring rivals for 8th. After Sandra Hughes had him for a while Gavin Cromwell took over this season and Raz De Maree has had a new lease of life, seemingly better than ever in Welsh National (3m6f soft) off 139. Tracking pace over the first, gradually lost ground to be in rear jumping the same fence second circuit, some progress to turn for home 9th, challenging for 2nd 2 out, only one to make ground on the idling Native River (who gave 16 lbs). Belatedly proved effective on good going by winning Cork National (3m4f) in November. Tracked pace, bad mistake 5 out, under pressure home straight, led 2 out, stayed on determinedly to beat Forever Gold (who received 11 lbs) ½ length. Ran as well as expected over hurdles last time out. Raz De Maree will probably be outpaced at some stage but staying on at the finish. Although 12 years old, his capable trainer hasn’t had him long, not inconceivable could get a lb or two improvement, trouble is he’s 7 lbs higher than Chepstow and 4th Houblon Des Obeaux 11 lbs better off for 15 lengths. Ger Fox won last year’s Irish National on Rogue Angel.33. 146 Stellar Notion 7-103242 Henry De Bromhead (Ire) (6/10) 9 10-09 ** Danny Mullins 132/1
Danny Mullins must think the game’s easy, winning the Grand National at the age of 19. Rule The World was a thorough soft ground stayer; tomorrow’s mount is also a rangy individual but totally different in characteristics. Stellar Notion has an action that favours goodish going and raced mainly at 2 and 2½ miles. In Munster “National” (3m yielding) disputed lead and a bit keen, reigned back to track pace, bit awkward 5 out, took 2nd final fence, no chance with 7 lengths winner Tiger Roll (who gave 3 lbs). Settled better second try at 3m, good 7½ lengths 4th to Noble Endeavor (who gave 6 lbs) in 3m (yielding-soft) Paddy Power. Jumping well at head of affairs, went 3 lengths clear after 2 out, joined last, weakened run-in. Just pipped on the post by A Toi Phil (who gave 4 ls) last time out in 2m5f (good) at Leopardstown latest start off an Irish mark of 139 (they’re often less than British – different scale). Tracked pace early, disputed it from 8 out; jumping generally a real asset, bold and accurate bar having to reach hard to get over 4 out, led 2 out, joined but another stellar leap at the last saw him go a couple of lengths clear. Weakened half-way up run-in as a strong pace told, beaten post. Travels so well at 3m it’s difficult to see Stellar Notion staying 4m2f, especially as he’s not that strong a finisher at shorter trips.34. 145 Rogue Angel 10-80095 Mouse Morris (Ire) (4/10) 9 10-08 *** Brian Cooper 33/1
Last year’s Irish National winner, from same stable and owner that won Aintree Grand National with Rule The World. Both those races came with trainer in magnificent form; only seemingly reasonable at best at the moment. Rogue Angel won (3m5f yielding-soft) off an Irish mark of 137, now has a British 145 (it’s a different scale). Not pressed for the lead (chasing horses in same ownership) going a good pace jumping well, 5 lengths clear rounding turn, got in a bit tight 3 out, joined at last where a bump put the wayward runner-up Bless The Wings off (who received 2 lbs). Rogue Angel staying on well to prevail by a short head. Hasn’t hit those heights since, trained with this solely in mind with a yard that were in very poor form early doors. A sighter over Aintree course in Becher (3m2f soft) behind Vieux Lion Rouge. In all probability not fully fit and ridden in contrasting fashion. Held up, bit slow Chair and moved to outer, gradual headway to be 5th by Bechers, jumped well bar slight peck Valentines and pushed along after untidy 4 out, lost ground thereafter. Better than 59 lengths 10th suggests. Signs of better to come last time over an inadequate test (3m1f soft) under a 5 lb claimer. Raced ½ length back from leader/winner, untidy 7 out, under pressure 4 out where lost position, jumped slowly/big 2 out, stayed on, beaten 21 lengths by Champagne West (who gave 13 lbs). Gigginstown’s first jockey has picked him (though picked wrong last year). Rogue Angel is still unexposed in marathons, this should be a season’s best although bears repeating things did go ideally in Irish National which remains a bit of a stand out performance.35. 145 Cocktails At Dawn 10F-P4FP Nicky Henderson (8/10) 9 10-08 (zero stars) Nico de Boinville 2000/1
Why is Cocktails At Dawn running in the Grand National? More letters after his name than numbers. Last bit of form in October 2015 made all, jumping boldly and well to win 2m3f (good) novice chase by 3 lengths giving 2nd As De Me 8 lbs. Hasn’t looked the same horse since; lightly raced and obviously had problems. This season: Outclassed, dropped out, numerous mistakes reappearance (3m1f good-soft) left behind once pace increased, 77 lengths last behind Many Clouds. Then, jumping better for a while in Betbright Chase (3m good) before throwing himself at the 9th and not getting his landing gear down, fallingl heavily. Last time out in Brown Advisory… (2m5f good) held up out wide for a clear view of fences, mistake 1st, tailed off by 5 out and pulled up 3 out. Also fell 6th when leading the field in Topham over these fences final start last season. Dropped 8 lbs from a high mark of 153 but is best making the running on good ground at around 2½m.36. 144 Thunder And Roses 0207226 Mouse Morris (Ire) (4/10) 9 10-07 ** Mark Enright 100/1
Another winner of the Irish National in 2015 (3m5f soft) as a novice for trainer Sandra Hughes. Soon tracking pace out wide jumping economically and well bar a slight mistake halfway, pushed along 5 out to close on leaders, under maximum pressure 2 out, led landing over final fence, out on his feet in very soft ground. Beating last year’s Aintree Grand National winner Rule The World (who gave 5 lbs) 4¼ lengths. Now trained by Rule The World’s trainer Mouse Morris. One of best races since that victory penultimate outing in barely racable conditions in the Bobbyjoe (3m1f heavy (bottomless)). Got in to a duel for the lead, jumping well, doing far better than the other prominent racer, now 5 lbs better off with the more conservatively ridden winner Pleasant Company. Thunder And Roses had a hard race and not so good last time out, 12th March (3m soft to heavy) in Leinster National. Led from 5th until after the home turn, tired when mistake last. Usually a very good economical jumper, suited by a thorough test of stamina. However, probably wants it softer than good.37. 144 Gas Line Boy P-243144 Ian Williams (9/10) 11 10-07 ** Robbie Dunne 132/1
Robbie Dunne performed a miracle at Bechers Brook last year on Vics Canvas, going on to take 3rd. Gas Line Boy led or disputed lead at a good pace to win a Kelso (2m7f good-soft) veterans chase off 136. Jumping fast and accurately, not needing to be vigorously ridden and going clear, beating Cloudy Too (who gave 6 lbs) 11 lengths. Those behind largely out of form and a 9 lbs hike (to 145) for a 10 going on 11 year old tough to take. Good 4th in Veterans Final (3m soft). Only tracked pace without his usual exuberance. Not fluent 4 out, pushed along and pecked 3 out, stayed on straight to take 4th, 7½ lengths behind winner Peat The Feat (who received 21 lbs). Upped to 3m4f latest start (good-soft) off this 144 mark in Haydock Grand National Trial. Has winning form at extreme trips in soft ground. Set a strong pace, couple of minor errors but mostly making ground at obstacles. Still in front 4 out, left behind by two very well handicapped horses. Beaten 24¾ lengths by winner Vieux Lion Rouge, 21½ by the 2nd Blaklion, and is on the same terms here with both. Most of Gas Line Boy’s form is on soft ground, but has an action suggesting should act on good. Should last longer than in 2015, fell at first.38. 144 Goodtoknow 1P-8521P Kerry Lee (6/10) 9 10-07 ** Jake Greenhall 500/1
Now only 3 lbs better off for the 6 lengths he was behind One For Arthur in the valuable Warwick Classic Chase (3m5f soft). Blinkered for the first time, chased leader, often jumping right-handed but traveling well, reached for 7th, untidy 5 out and put in a short one 3 out, led home turn, joined and passed 2 out, kept on. Suited by being on the inner of right-handed Hereford (3m1f heavy) next/penultimate effort put up 1 lb. Won 11 runner (3 finisher) race, tracked pace, always traveling well, led 3 out. Beat stable companion Mountainous (who received 4 lbs) 7 lengths kept up to his work. Probably had hardish race in the conditions, as disappointed last time out in Haydock Grand National Trial. Tracked pace early, dropped to mid-division and pushed along with a circuit left, pulled up before end of the back straight. Jumped a bit straighter at Haydock, but the 6th 7th 8th fence left-handed turns of Aintree may cause a few problems. Still unexposed as a blinkered stayer but it won’t be soft/heavy tomorrow. Now on a 7 lbs higher mark than Hereford, 8 lbs higher than Warwick.39. 143 La Vaticane 18-2515P David Pipe (7/10) 8 10-06 (zero stars) Richie McLernon 2000/1
Jumped safely to win a Class 3 handicap at Doncaster (3m good-soft) traveling well, challenging at the last and without rider going for the whip. Helped by a loose horse in front of him; so not needing to “lead”. Ran two similar races over Grand National fences over the shortest trip possible 2m5f of Topham and Grand Sefton. Latter in December (good-soft) 5th, pecked 2nd and Valentines, blundered 3 out when going well, weakened and beaten 32 lengths by As De Mee (who received 1 lb). Former (good-soft) a year ago; held up, pecked 2nd, headway to track pace Bechers where awkward, going well 3 out, just behind leaders 2 out, weakened and beaten 27 lengths by Eastlake (levels). Disappointed penultimate effort when 11/8 favourite in mares listed (2m7f good) beaten before home turn and trailed in 28 lengths behind Desert Queen (levels). Hampered in rear and rider lost reigns latest start, eventually pulled up in Kim Muir (3m2f good). La Vaticane doesn’t find much off the bridle. Stays 3m and effective at 2½m, the way she travels through races suggests another 1¼ miles is beyond her.40. 143 Doctor Harper 1U-P92P7 David Pipe (7/10) 9 10-06 * Conor O’Farrell 500/1
Races in the colours of David Pipe’s 2008 Grand National winner Comply Or Die. Doctor Harper won the 3m handicap hurdle at this meeting in 2014, but hasn’t gone on. Had a quiet novice campaign in small fields in a bid to keep his handicap down and started 4/1 favourite in last year’s Kim Muir (3m2f good). Held up, clouted first, slight mistakes 16th and 17th, headway pushed along to be upsides winner Caause Of Causes 3 out, weakened and seemingly out on his feet when only just got over 2 out,unseating. Best effort off a mark of 136 over the same course and distance (soft) in 16 runner handicap. Dropped out, jumped fine, steady headway to race mid-field by halfway, going well just behind leaders 3 out, pushed along and challenged final fence, joined leader run in, just held short head 2nd to Tour Des Champs (who received 2 lbs). Ran poorly penultimate start, stepped up to 3m5f in Classic Chase (soft) beaten before stamina became an issue, pushed along and under pressure 7 out, pulled up soon after. Both Cheek pieces and tongue tie used for the first time and different tactics latest start Kim Muir (3m2f good) a fair 7th. Tracked pace but gradually dropped back towards rear, headway 4 out pushed along, never reached leaders, beaten 13 lengths. Economical rather than fluent jumper, stays at least 3m2f well, acts on soft and good ground.1 Definitely Red
2 Blaklion
3 Vieux Lion Rouge
4 The Last Samuri
5 Drop Out Joe
6 Houblon Des ObeauxValue Is EverythingOne thing that worries me (from the point of view of how the welfare/cruelty aspect is misinterpreted and sensationalised by the papers and misunderstood by the once a year “oh, that’s too dangerous in this day and age, ban it” brigade) is the forecast extreme temperatures (17c) for Liverpool at this time of year. I don’t think the race will ever have been run on quite such a hot, sunny day (global warming!) and with the modified fences, better training methods and increased depth of quality of the field the horses go faster than ever – pushing equine athletic boundaries. I know plenty of water will be on hand but I fear something collapsing fatally and the reaction if it happens.
I’ve backed Le Mercurey, Lord Windermere and Perfect Candidate. I wouldn’t be surprised if one the market principals won but it’s the national and each way at 50/1 for a pound is more like it for me.
I agree with Steve on one thing, if you want to back a horse to make money The Last Samurai each way with 6 places is surely the bet.
Agree the weather makes it tough, the year Ballabriggs won they looked like they’d had a hard race. Don’t worry I’m sure ITV will talk earnestly every 2 minutes about buckets of water on their visits to the stables and winners enclosure.
The safest bet this year is that you will not read a better preview than the one written by Gingertipster here.
The one on Oddschecker looks like it was delivered from a pair of buttocks in comparison.
Well done Ginger, a cracking effort on your part.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
GT, That’s the best preview you’ve written over the years I’ve been here. Timeform would be proud of something like that.
A general remark on One For Arthur not just for your review; I haven’t seen it mentioned elsewhere…the fitting of the tongue tie last time could be a significant factor in his improvement.
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