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Well, after a great Cheltenham Ante-Post, where I had 5 or 6 Green Books, as per, The National has been somewhat trickier. Definitely a loser at the moment, and although I could go green at the click of a button from More of That, I have no intention of doing so, so stuck with a losing book. Been hit with more sore losers than usual this year, and the news about Ziga Boy today was not good for me.
As I said last week, this approach didn’t do me any harm last year, and I just hope lightning can strike twice.
Cause of Causes 40’s
The Young Master 33’s
Bless The Wings 6 places ew 100’s
Bless The Wings 5 places ew NRNB 66’sMore of That 550’s to 1000’s
Doctor Harper 1000’s
Pleasant Company 360’s to 380’s
Ballynagour 100’s to 110’sJust A Par 130’s Laid 55’s
Wounded Warrior 120’sGoodtoknow 110’s
O’Faolains Boy 70’s Laid 30’s
Potters Cross 1000’s
The Crafty Butcher 380’s to 1000’sThunder And Roses gets in despite my earlier comment and I’ll wait till nearer the time to get on although he wouldn’t be my main bet.
I have to say I really feel for connections of Ziga Boy; they (and the horse) really didn’t deserve this and I hope he comes back in a couple of years and get’s a chance.
I’m heading on up for the full 3 days for the first time this year and am absolutely buzzing as it’s looking like being a brilliant 3 days racing as you’ll see. Hopefully that sun keeps on shining!
Poor Ziga Boy, just read that it was a tendon. Flemenstar came a distant 3rd yesterday to horses he would have wiped the floor with in his heyday…hope Ziga’s heals better and faster.
Yeah. real shame about Ziga. He was way overpriced, he was, strangely, the only big Saturday Chase Winner this year, not to be dramatically cut for either Aintree or Cheltenham, and I was hopeful of a good spin. Maybe Aintree is just bad luck for him, having been brought down at the first in The Becher (although officially recorded as an U/R).
Felt for the syndicate who own him, they must be gutted, and there would have to be doubts he’ll come back the same horse. I hope I’m wrong.
Added Saphir Du Rheu as my final member of the team. Backed him to win at Newbury and The Gold Cup in the belief he could show his potential.I think 20’s is quite a fair price also considering he seems to be on an upward curve now.
My 3 for the race
SDR @ 20’s NRNB
Cause of Causes 65.0, 60.0, 44.0, 36.0, 40’s, 33’s, 25,s 20’s & 18’s
O’Failans Boy 66’s E/W ( forgot about that one )My final team is
Goodtoknow. 100/1 and 66/1
Bishops Road 66/1 x 2
Stellar Notion 66/1
The Last Samurai 14/1
Definitely Red 11/1May all horses and jockeys return safe
The first thing to say is it looks a decidedly below par renewal. Phil Smith talks about improving the standard but for whatever reason it hasn’t worked this year.
I backed One For Arthur a few weeks ago but confidence has subsided ever since. I can see him struggling to get into the race and stamina isn’t a given.
Much happier with Highland Lodge. Hopefully, he will avoid any possible trouble on the front end.
Of the others despite the weight rise The Last Samuri probably looks the most solid option and Perfect Candidate should bowl along but essentially looks to have too much weight. Conversely, Saphir Du Rheu has a reasonable weight but his attitude and jumping could well be too fragile for a National. Vieux Lion Rouge looks pretty short given that he isn’t a certain stayer and I wouldn’t get carried away with any form at Haydock. Is Cause Of Causes better than his previous attempt? Surely you wouldn’t have a sighter in a Grand National? I think Definitely Red lacks substance for this sort of task and Pleasant Company had a very hard race last time and doesn’t shape to me as if he wants a severe test of stamina. Rogue Angel is probably the best of Gigginstown but is clearly difficult to predict and he didn’t appear to have much of a cut at these fences in the Becher. Just A Par seems to like Newbury and Sandown but is another with a mind of his own and you have to hope that the drying ground is going to produce significant improvement on his previous effort.
The best bet at short odds is More Of That not to finish. He was the chief beneficiary of that slow pace in the Irish Gold Cup. Even if he jumps, which in itself is a doubt, I think he barely stays three miles. Given his fragility they are not going persevere once he is beaten.
Interesting price on Cause of Causes to start Favourite on Saturday @ 7’s PP
Sounds like a tough call for Gerraghty in which horse he chooses to ride, even if he went for the Jonjo runner i can still see the Elliot runner being well backed in the run up to the race.
7’s seems a bit big to me, looks like i missed the 10’s and that was a great price regardless of what happens.
Will be a good ground national this year for sure. Will that see the better rated horses come to the fore? Can see top weight winning this year if it is good ground, which I’m pretty sure it will! The last Samurai @ 16/1
The Last Sumuri is probably going to finish and be in the first 6 but I can’t see him defying top weight.
I can see that happening as well Charles, just not quite good enough but a solid each way contender.
Debutants usually do well so something like One for Arthur or Blaklion could do well, have a bit of class and are proven stayers. I can see quite a few fighting out the finish this year so a jockey strong at the finish would definitely be a plus…
Yeah, sub standard renewal for sure, and the quality of entry for Fairyhouse is vastly superior. I just hope that this makes things that little bit easier for Cause of Causes, or More of That.
Still looking forward to it though, it’s the biggest race of the year, and there’s nothing quite like it.
You’ve been pretty solid this season Stilvi, calling out horses who won’t win, so I sincerely hope you are wrong about More of That, and I’m still hopeful/confident.
Good luck with Highland Lodge, and you should get a fair old run for your money from him.
I am with Stilvi on More Of That. I have never seen the horse as a Grand National sort at all.
Perhaps from a betting viewpoint though, siding with the OVER market in the spread for how many jockeys will say “I wouldn’t/won’t swap my mount for anything” is the shrewdest bet of the entire meeting. It’s been early doors for this wager but Tom Scudamore and Noel Fehily have already uttered the familiar phrase this week and there is still ample time for more to follow suit.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Moehat, Venture, thankfully there was no harm done with Maggio as I did bet him him NRNB. I feel for the small stables when they lose an opportunity like that, and I think he could have played a part.
I will replace him with Pendra and Roi Des Francs for some fun at 66-1. It’s once a year so I will have another on my side I” sure on the day
My latest workings out shows these 7 could win
Wonderful Charm
Blaklion
Cause Of Causes
Houblon Des Obeaux
Raz De Maree
Thunder And Roses
GoodtoknowAnd in the reserve list
Bless The Wings
Liked Drop Out Joe too because of his long rest pattern and at 100/1 could be interesting but I think he lacks class.
Don’t like Le Mercurey but after putting him in VTC 10 to follow competition, it’s like the one you pull out of the office sweepstake to me.Others considered in the past months leading to the race, The Young Master in Pat’s Ante Post comp, went off him after Cheltenham.
The best things in life are free.
But you can give them to the birds and bees.
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